Gordon T Long

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PRESERVE & PROTECT: The Jaws of Death

 

The United States is facing both a structural and demand problem - it is not the cyclical recessionary business cycle or the fallout of a credit supply crisis which the Washington spin would have you believe.

 

It is my opinion that the Washington political machine is being forced to take this position, because it simply does not know what to do about the real dilemma associated with the implications of the massive structural debt and deficits facing the US.  This is a politically dangerous predicament because the reality is we are on the cusp of an imminent and significant collapse in the standard of living for most Americans.

 

The politicos’ proven tool of stimulus spending, which has been the silver bullet solution for decades to everything that has even hinted of being a problem, is clearly no longer working. Monetary and Fiscal policy are presently no match for the collapse of the Shadow Banking System. A $2.1 Trillion YTD drop in Shadow Banking Liabilities has become an insurmountable problem for the Federal Reserve without a further and dramatic increase in Quantitative Easing. The fallout from this action will be an intractable problem which we will face for the next five to eight years, resulting in the “Jaws of Death” for the American public.  READ MORE

 

 

   

 

PRESERVE & PROTECT: Mapping the Tipping Points

The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people are apparently willing to pay any price.  As a sailor it feels like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any eventuality. Are you prepared?

 

What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane? Unlike sailors the financial markets do not have the forecasting technology to protect it from such a possibility. Good sailors before today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial community.

 

Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly looming on the horizon.

Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971 the increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking. It has grown unchecked and inevitably became unhinged from world industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.  READ MORE


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

POSTS:  TUESDAY 10-12-10

Last Update: 10/13/2010 04:07 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Germany Opposes Extending Greek Bailout Repayment Schedule Bloomberg X                  
French Unions Threaten Open-Ended Strikes Over Pensions Bloomberg X                  
U.K. Economy `Slowed Considerably' in Third Quarter, BCC Says Bloomberg X                  
Ireland Relies on Treasury Cash to Avoid Greece-Style Rescue Bloomberg X                  
Small business optimism edges higher in Sept Reuters X                  
Plea for fixed rules to halt banks’ excess FT   X                
US cities face big public pension deficits FT       X            
Study highlights CDS shortcomings FT           X        
The Rise And Fall Of The Shadow Banking System Investo- pedia           X        
Pandit Recruits Citigroup Army as Costs Erode U.S. Bank Margins Bloomberg           X        
States to Probe Mortgage Mess WSJ                 X  
Foreclosure Fraud For Dummies - 4 Part Series Rortybomb wordpress                 X  
Home Prices Are Love Affair Heading for Rocks- Matthew Lynn Bloomberg                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
China raises big banks' required reserves - sources Reuters             X      
Fast yuan revaluation no panacea - top banker China Daily             X      
Shanghai index hit a 4-month high with record turnover Shanghai Daily             X      
Chinese yuan reaches new high China Daily             X      
Consumers in China, Brazil Discover Debt WSJ             X      
A Letter to Senator Scott Brown - The Fed's Political Interference Must Be Stopped Sheehan                 X  
Lawmaker Vows to Ban Insider Trading on the Hill WSJ                 X  
The 2010 Spending Record WSJ                 X  
REMAINING                      
Corn price surges on fears of food crisis FT                   31
Farm Economy Bounces Back WSJ                   31
Cargill Profit Climbs 68% WSJ                   31
                       
                       
BP OIL                      
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Fed Suggests Action Is Needed WSJ                    
Yellen Recognizes Risks of Low Rates WSJ                    
The Final End of Bretton Woods 2? Duy                    
Money Is Power Der Spiegel                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Blow to plans for dealing with bank crisis FT                    
Doubts on US bank resolution plan FT                    
Asia’s problem of plenty: liquidity MW                    
Emerging markets rush turning into secular move Reuters                    
Marc Faber Says World Heading for `Major Inflection Point' Bloomberg                    
FLASH CRASH                      
The Real Flash-Crash Culprits Barrons                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Faber- I'm Ultra-Bearish On Everything, And We're At A Turning Point Where It's Time To Dump Bonds BI                    

CURRENCY WARS

                     
420 banks demand 1-world currency Independ.                    
United Nations World Economic and Social Survey 2010 UN (176 pg Report)                    
China baulks at sharing the West's post-party hangover King                    
Currency wars are necessary if all else fails Prichard                    
South Korea's Lee warns of big trouble if FX accord fails Reuters                    
Poland’s Central Bank Governor Belka on Currency Wars WSJ                    
Subbarao Says India May Intervene in Currency Market... Bloomberg                    
US to turn up currency pressure on China Dow Jones                    
Concerns over capital flight emerging Korea Times                    
G20 currency fist fight rolls into town FT                    
Q3 EARNINGS                      
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
Gold Miners Head for Hills WSJ                    
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

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10-12-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

IRAN

ISREAL

KOREA

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

GREECE

 

SPAIN

 

GERMANY

Germany Opposes Extending Greek Bailout Repayment Schedule BL

 

FRANCE

French Unions Threaten Open-Ended Strikes Over Pensions  BL

French workers are demonstrating today for the fourth time in five weeks in nationwide marches, disrupting rail and air traffic as labor unions threaten open- ended strikes to press President Nicolas Sarkozy to scrap his pension-system overhaul.

UK

U.K. Economy `Slowed Considerably' in Third Quarter, BCC Says  BL

The U.K. economy “slowed considerably” in the third quarter, adding to the case for the Bank of England to expand stimulus to prevent a renewed recession, the British Chambers of Commerce said.

 

IRELAND

Ireland Relies on Treasury Cash to Avoid Greece-Style Rescue BL

JAPAN

 

 

USA

 

time (et) report period Actual Consensus
forecast
previous

 

Tuesday, Oct. 12
7:30 am NFIB small business index Sept. 89.0 N/A 88.8

 

Small business optimism edges higher in Sept Reuters  PDF File

 

Even as more firms planned to cut staff than hire new workers...

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

Plea for fixed rules to halt banks’ excess  FT

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

US cities face big public pension deficits  FT


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


Study highlights CDS shortcomings  FT

The Rise And Fall Of The Shadow Banking System Investopedia

Pandit Recruits Citigroup Army as Costs Erode U.S. Bank Margins  BL


7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

States to Probe Mortgage Mess WSJ

A group of as many as 40 state attorneys general is expected to announce an investigation into the mortgage-servicing industry, an effort some of them hope will pressure financial institutions to rewrite large numbers of troubled loans.

The attorneys' general immediate aim is to determine the scale of the document problems and correct them. But several of them have said that the investigation could force the lenders and servicers to agree to mass loan modifications or principal forgiveness schemes. Other possibilities include financial penalties or changes in mortgage servicing practices.

Lenders and servicers have largely resisted reducing principal on mortgages, instead focusing on interest-rate reductions or term extensions. Banks say they are worried about lawsuits from investors, some of whom could lose money in a principal write down.

Former New Jersey attorney general Peter Harvey, now a trial lawyer in New York, said that a settlement with state attorneys general would likely "to give the banks some cover" to make changes that might otherwise result in lawsuits by investors in mortgage-backed securities.

 The primary weapon the states could wield would be their respective laws against unfair and deceptive acts and practices, said Prentiss Cox, a professor of law at the University of Minnesota and former Assistant Attorney General in Minnesota.

1-Bank of America widened its foreclosure freeze to all 50 states.
2-J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s Chase Home Mortgage unit suspended judicial foreclosures
3- GMAC announced that it was suspending foreclosures in the 23 U.S. states where judges are required to sign off on them

 

Foreclosure Fraud For Dummies - 4 Part Series Rortybomb.wordpress.com

 

This is a 4 part series giving a basic explanation of the current foreclosure fraud crisis: 
Part One, Part Two, Part Three, and Part Four

 

 

Home Prices Are Love Affair Heading for Rocks- Matthew Lynn  BL

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


China raises big banks' required reserves - sources Reuters

Fast yuan revaluation no panacea - top banker China Daily

Shanghai index hit a 4-month high with record turnover Shanghai Daily

Chinese yuan reaches new high China Daily

China Plans Two-Year Inflation Fight, Will Lower Housing Prices, Zhou Says BL

Consumers in China, Brazil Discover Debt WSJ

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

A Letter to Senator Scott Brown - The Fed's Political Interference Must Be Stopped Sheehan

 

Lawmaker Vows to Ban Insider Trading on the Hill  WSJ

 

The 2010 Spending Record  WSJ

In two years, a 21.4% increase.



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

Corn price surges on fears of food crisis  FT

Rise follows downgrade of expected US harvest

 

Farm Economy Bounces Back  WSJ
Agriculture is coming out of the recession far faster than most other sectors, as export demand boosts prices for many crops, even once-tattered cotton.

 

Cargill Profit Climbs 68%  WSJ
Cargill's fiscal first-quarter profit rose 68% as the agribusiness company benefited from volatile commodity markets.

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

Fed Suggests Action Is Needed  WSJ

 

Barring surprising improvements in the economy, most U.S. Federal Reserve officials believed new steps would be needed to jump-start growth when they last met Sept. 21. "Meeting participants discussed several possible approaches to providing additional accommodation but focused primarily on further purchases of longer-term Treasury securities and on possible steps to affect inflation expectations," the minutes showed.

The minutes also revealed that the Fed's staff cut the projections for economic growth in 2011 and expected the underlying inflation rate -- already below the central bank's informal objective -- to slow further next year.

Because of the economy's weakness, inflation is currently running below the Fed's informal target of between 1.7% and 2.0%. The central bank's most closely-watched indicator put underlying inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, at only 1.4% in August.

Fed officials discussed several ways they could affect short-term inflation expectations, including providing more detailed information about the rates of inflation considered consistent with its dual mandate of stable prices and full employment.

"Targeting a path for the price level rather than the rate of inflation" was one of the strategies that was considered by officials, the minutes showed.

 

Yellen Recognizes Risks of Low Rates  WSJ

 

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen, one of the U.S. central bank’s key defenders of low interest rates to support a weak economy, warned on Monday there may be dangers to an overly easy monetary policy.

In her first remarks since becoming the Fed’s No. 2 official last week, Yellen said low interest rates can lead to excessive risk-taking in the economy, adding she couldn’t rule out using monetary policy to limit such risk.

“It is conceivable that accommodative monetary policy could provide tinder for a buildup of leverage and excessive risk-taking in the financial system,” Yellen said in prepared remarks to the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, or NABE, in Denver.

Yellen has been one of the Fed’s key supporters of low interest rates to fight a stubbornly high unemployment rate. But she’s bristled at the widespread perception on Wall Street that she is one of the Fed’s most dovish members, supporting overly easy monetary policy amid few worries about the risk of unintended consequences, such as a new asset bubble or inflation. Yellen has countered that her outlook flows from her expectations of the economic outlook, and that if price pressures are ebbing and the jobless rate remains high, it is entirely appropriate to support an aggressive stance for monetary policy.

 In her brief remarks about the economy, Yellen underlined how the U.S. recovery has been “agonizingly slow” and how the economy was still reeling from an “epic financial disaster.”

 

The Final End of Bretton Woods 2? Duy
The time may finally be at hand when the imbalances created by Bretton Woods 2 now tear the system asunder.  The collapse is coming via an unexpected channel; rather than originating from abroad, the shock that sets it in motion comes from the inside, a blast of stimulus from the US Federal Reserve.  And at the moment, the collapse looks likely to turn disorderly quickly.  If the Federal Reserve is committed to quantitative easing, there is no way for the rest of the world to stop to flow of dollars that is already emanating from the US.  Yet much of the world does not want to accept the inevitable, and there appears to be no agreement on what comes next.  Call me pessimistic, but right now I don't see how this situation gets anything but more ugly

Rather than a reliance on US financial institutions to intermediate the channel between foreign savers and US households, a modified Bretton Woods 2 - Bretton Woods 2.1 - relied on the US government to step into the void created by the financial mess and become the intermediary, either by propping up mortgage markets via the takeover of Freddie and Fannie, or the fiscal stimulus, or a dozen of other programs initiated during the financial crisis.

To understand the challenge ahead, we need to begin with two points of general agreement. 
1- The first is that the US has a significant and persistent current account deficit, which implies that domestic absorption of goods and services, by all sectors, exceeds potential output.  In other words, we rely on a steady inflow of goods and services to satisfy our excess demand, a situation we typically find acceptable during a high growth phase when domestic investment exceeds domestic saving. 
2- The second point of agreement is that high unemployment implies that actual output is far below potential output.  We clearly have unused capacity.

An excessively high dollar is the explanation for the simultaneous existence of 1) a sizable current account deficit and 2) excessive unemployment.  Indeed, there appears to be a externally determined downward limit to real value of the Dollar, and we are close to pushing against it:



Money Is Power Spiegel
An Inside View of the IMF's Massive Global Influence
The New World Order: The United Nations will probably become less important; the organization is far too slow-moving and sluggish. And, if one understands DSK correctly on this point, the importance of the United States -- that egomaniacal country which is incapable of action -- will also decline. Of course, Strauss-Kahn would never speak in such terms, but he does point out that it was the United States that reacted to the 2008 crisis, not with a long-term view, but bank by bank. "They tried to solve Bear Stearns first, and then Fannie and Freddie, and really believed that each hurdle was the last one," he says.

What will become important, however, is the G-20, that coalition of the strongest economies, the center of power in a new world. The G-20 gave the IMF $850 billion (€620 billion) and the mission to solve the crisis. What followed, says, Strauss-Kahn, was "the biggest global coordination ever." Does this mean that the IMF became the first post-crisis world government?

In Strauss-Kahn's view, the IMF should become an administrative unit of sorts for the G-20, an agency that "tries to find solutions for global and national problems," and comes up with plans and create values. "In the end we aim at much more than just the right financial and economic policies. The ultimate goal, of course, is world peace through economic stability."

DSK came to Washington in 2007, after having been nominated by French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The two men had been rivals, but now France was strengthened and Strauss-Kahn disposed of -- a diabolical plan on Sarkozy's part, as it seemed.

In 2007, the IMF had only $2 billion in lending commitments on its books -- an amount best described by the word "peanuts." Today that number has jumped to $195 billion. At the 2008 annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Strauss-Kahn called for a global stimulus plan. It was a shocking idea, given the IMF's history of reacting after a crisis and never taking preventive action. Now the IMF had about $900 billion at its disposal -- up from $250 billion before the crisis -- enabling it to intervene quickly anywhere in the world.

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

 

Blow to plans for dealing with bank crisis  FT

Policymakers criticise post-Lehman US proposals

 

Doubts on US bank resolution plan  FT

 

Asia’s problem of plenty: liquidity MW

 

Emerging markets rush turning into secular move Reuters

 

Marc Faber Says World Heading for `Major Inflection Point'  BL

Global markets are heading for an “important turning point” as interest rates begin to rise within about three months and the U.S. dollar gains, according to investor Marc Faber .

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

The Real Flash-Crash Culprits Barron’s

 

MARKET WARNINGS

Faber- I'm Ultra-Bearish On Everything, And We're At A Turning Point Where It's Time To Dump Bonds  BI

 

CURRENCY WARS

 

420 banks demand 1-world currency Independent

The Institute of International Finance, a group that represents 420 of the world's largest banks and finance houses, has issued yet another call for a one-world global currency, Jerome Corsi's Red Alert reports.

"A core group of the world's leading economies need to come together and hammer out an understanding," Charles Dallara, the Institute of International Finance's managing director, told the Financial Times. An IIF policy letter authored by Dallara and dated Oct. 4 made clear that global currency coordination was needed, in the group's view, to prevent a looming currency war.

"The narrowly focused unilateral and bilateral policy actions seen in recent months – including many proposed and actual measures on trade, currency intervention and monetary policy – have contributed to worsening underlying macroeconomic imbalances," Dallara wrote. "They have also led to growing protectionist pressures as countries scramble for export markets as a source of growth."

Dallara encouraged a return to the G-20 commitment to utilize International Monetary Fund special drawing rights to create an international one-world currency alternative to the U.S. dollar as a new standard of foreign-exchange reserves.

Likewise, a July United Nations report called for the replacement of the dollar as the standard for holding foreign-exchange reserves in international trade with a new one-world currency issued by the International Monetary Fund.

 

United Nations World Economic and Social Survey 2010  UN (176 Page Report)

 

China baulks at sharing the West's post-party hangover King

 
"From a Chinese perspective, then, a renminbi revaluation is, in truth, a dollar devaluation and, hence, an American act of default to its foreign creditors..."

 
Stephen King, the managing director of economics at HSBC writes:
"the rich Western world has over-consumed in recent years. It has too many debts. But rather than dealing with those debts – living a life of austerity, accepting a period of relative stagnation – the West wants to shift the burden of adjustment on to its creditors, even when those creditors are relatively poor nations with low per capita incomes. And that rankles not just with the Chinese but also with many other countries in Asia and in other parts of the emerging world. During the Asian crisis in 1997-98, Western nations, under the auspices of the IMF, insisted that Asian nations, having borrowed too much, should now tighten their belts. But the US doesn't seem to think it should abide by the same rules. Far better to use the exchange rate to pass the burden on to someone else than to swallow the bitter pill of austerity. No wonder the Chinese are not willing to play ball."
"The Chinese reject the conventional thinking.

1- They could point to the yen's extraordinary rise over the last 40 years – from JPY360 against the dollar at the beginning of the 1970s to approaching JPY80 today – and note that, despite this huge appreciation, Japan's current account surplus has got bigger, not smaller.
2- They could argue that America's prescription for China's economic rebalancing – a stronger currency and a boost to domestic demand – was precisely the policy followed by the Japanese in the late-1980s, leading to the biggest financial bubble in living memory and the 20-year hangover that followed.
3- They could argue that the demand for a renminbi revaluation is, in truth, a policy of American default.
4- During the Asian crisis in 1997-98, Western nations, under the auspices of the IMF, insisted that Asian nations, having borrowed too much, should now tighten their belts. But the US doesn't seem to think it should abide by the same rules"

 

Currency wars are necessary if all else fails Pritchard

 
"while the French deny that they are in talks with China over the creation of a new currency regime, I heard French finance minister Christine Lagarde say in person at a meeting in Italy that France would use its G20 presidency to push for an alternative to the dollar. She specifically cited the “Bancor”, the idea floated by Keynes in the 1940s for a commodity currency priced off a basket of metals."

 
Asian investment in plant has run ahead of Western ability to consume. The debt-strapped households of Middle America, or Britain and Spain, can no longer hold up the dysfunctional edifice. Asians must take over, or it will come down on their own heads. The overwhelming fact of the global currency system is that America needs a much weaker dollar to bring its economy back into kilter and avoid slow ruin, yet the rest of the world cannot easily handle the consequences of such a wrenching adjustment. There is not enough demand to go around.

The atomic bomb, of course, is quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. America has in effect issued an ultimatum to China and G20: either you stop this predatory behaviour and agree to some formula for global rebalancing, or we will deploy QE2 `a l’outrance’ to flood your economies with excess liquidity. We will cause you to overheat and drive up your wage costs. We will impose a de facto currency revaluation by more brutal and disruptive means, and there is little you can do to stop it. Pick your poison.

Washington has begun to retaliate in earnest, and not just by passing the Reform for Fair Trade Act in the House (not yet the Senate), clearing the way for punitive tariffs against currency manipulators.

 

South Korea's Lee warns of big trouble if FX accord fails Reuters

 

Poland’s Central Bank Governor Belka on Currency Wars WSJ

 

Subbarao Says India May Intervene in Currency Market... BL

 

US to turn up currency pressure on China Dow Jones

 

Concerns over capital flight emerging Korea Times

 

G20 currency fist fight rolls into town  FT

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

 

Gold Miners Head for Hills  WSJ
Gold-mining companies are accelerating new projects and scouring the globe with renewed vigor, to take advantage of soaring prices of the metal.

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

"The global financial system continues to be unsound in the same way that a Ponzi scheme is unsound: there are not enough cash flows to ultimately service the face value of all the existing obligations over time. A Ponzi scheme may very well be liquid, as long as few people ask for their money back at any given time. But solvency is a different matter - relating to the ability of the assets to satisfy the liabilities."

John Hussman
No Margin of Safety, No Room for Error


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

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ARCHIVAL

 

READING THE RIGHT BOOKS?  NO TIME?

 

WE HAVE IT ANALYZED & INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST RESEARCH PAPERS!

 

 

ACCEPTING PRE-ORDERS

 

 

 




 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

   

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.