Gordon T Long

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PRESERVE & PROTECT: The Jaws of Death

 

The United States is facing both a structural and demand problem - it is not the cyclical recessionary business cycle or the fallout of a credit supply crisis which the Washington spin would have you believe.

 

It is my opinion that the Washington political machine is being forced to take this position, because it simply does not know what to do about the real dilemma associated with the implications of the massive structural debt and deficits facing the US.  This is a politically dangerous predicament because the reality is we are on the cusp of an imminent and significant collapse in the standard of living for most Americans.

 

The politicos’ proven tool of stimulus spending, which has been the silver bullet solution for decades to everything that has even hinted of being a problem, is clearly no longer working. Monetary and Fiscal policy are presently no match for the collapse of the Shadow Banking System. A $2.1 Trillion YTD drop in Shadow Banking Liabilities has become an insurmountable problem for the Federal Reserve without a further and dramatic increase in Quantitative Easing. The fallout from this action will be an intractable problem which we will face for the next five to eight years, resulting in the “Jaws of Death” for the American public.  READ MORE

 

 

   

 

PRESERVE & PROTECT: Mapping the Tipping Points

The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people are apparently willing to pay any price.  As a sailor it feels like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any eventuality. Are you prepared?

 

What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane? Unlike sailors the financial markets do not have the forecasting technology to protect it from such a possibility. Good sailors before today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial community.

 

Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly looming on the horizon.

Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971 the increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking. It has grown unchecked and inevitably became unhinged from world industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.  READ MORE


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

POSTS:  MONDAY 10-11-10

Last Update: 10/12/2010 09:25 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Germany: Bail-out at the municipal level DB Research X                  
Osborne threatens new tax crackdown on banks Independ. X                  
Report to lay out ‘massive’ public waste FT X                  
Job Losses in U.S. Exceed Forecasts After Local Governments Fire Teachers Bloomberg       X            
How will the freeze effect the housing market? CNN                 X  
Florida Foreclosure Firm Fudged Forms, Ex-Paralegal Claims Bloomberg                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
U.S. Payroll Slump That's Probably Deeper Than Estimated Hinders Recovery Bloomberg   X                
Unfilled Openings Frustrate the Jobless WSJ   X                
Payrolls for Temps, Part-Timers on Rise WSJ   X                
Fast-rising yuan a 'risk to global economy' China Daily             X      
REMAINING                      
Corn prices surge to two-year high FT                   31
US corn shortage seen raising meat prices FT                   31
Beer industry continues to suffer MSN                   31
Climate Change Threatens Global Rice Asia Central                   31
No Margin of Safety, No Room for Error Hussman                   32
                       
BP OIL                      
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Grant Says Quantitative Easing Is Just Money Printing Bloomberg Video                    
The Ride of the Keynesian Cowboys Mauldin                    
Bernanke's Declaration of Independence North                    
The Effectiveness of QE2 Depends on Quantities... Kasriel                    
The Fed's Big Tease Continues! Harding                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
                       
FLASH CRASH                      
                       
MARKET WARNINGS                      
S&P 500 Rally Has `Authority,' Trading Volume May Show Bloomberg                    
                       

CURRENCY WARS

                     
IMF fails to strike deal over currency frictions Telegraph                    
Currency battle lines drawn FT                    
IMF meeting dashes hopes on currencies FT                    
Currency wars- Going head to head FT                    
US, China clash amid fears of currency war AFP                    
Currency Tensions May Be Curbed With IMF Help, Strauss-Kahn Says Bloomberg                    
Leaders pledge cooperation on currencies FT                    
Focus: Currency debate heats up Danske                    
Chart: Dollar Dives Swenlin                    
Dollar crunched again Barr                    
Q3 EARNINGS                      
Bumpy Earnings Season Ahead for Chip Makers WSJ                    
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





10-11-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

IRAN

ISREAL

KOREA

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

GREECE

 

SPAIN

 

GERMANY

Germany: Bail-out at the municipal level DB Research

 

FRANCE

 

UK

Osborne threatens new tax crackdown on banks Independent

 

Report to lay out ‘massive’ public waste  FT

Sir Philip Green identifies hundreds of millions of pounds of savings

 

IRELAND


JAPAN

 

 

USA

 

time (et) report period Actual Consensus
forecast
previous
MONDAY, Oct. 11
  Columbus Day
None scheduled
       

 

 

 

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Job Losses in U.S. Exceed Forecasts After Local Governments Fire Teachers BL

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II



7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

How will the freeze effect the housing market? CNN

 

Florida Foreclosure Firm Fudged Forms, Ex-Paralegal Claims BL

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


U.S. Payroll Slump That's Probably Deeper Than Estimated Hinders Recovery BL
The revision may mean the worst recession since the 1930s resulted in the loss of 8.73 million jobs, up from the 8.36 million currently on the books

Unfilled Openings Frustrate the Jobless  WSJ
Economists and job seekers are identifying another reason for high unemployment—companies are being pickier, or not trying as hard as they usually do to fill the openings they have.



Payrolls for Temps, Part-Timers on Rise  WSJ
Companies are making do with a mix of more temporary and part-time workers at the expense of adding permanent jobs, a trend that suggests the U.S. labor market could stay stuck in neutral for months to come.

13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


Fast-rising yuan a 'risk to global economy' China Daily

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

Corn prices surge to two-year high  FT

Warning about US production leads to scramble for supplies

 

US corn shortage seen raising meat prices  FT

 

Beer industry continues to suffer MSN

Climate Change Threatens Global Rice Asia Sentinel

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 

No Margin of Safety, No Room for Error   Hussman

 

In his latest weekly note, John Hussman continues to rail on why he thinks this market is overvalued based on traditional metrics.

His latest angle? Dividend yields.

If you look through market history prior to the valuation bubble that began in the mid-1990's, you will observe only three times that the dividend yield on the S&P 500 dropped to 2.65%. The precise dates should be instantly familiar. August 1929, December 1972, and August 1987. These dates represented the peaks prior to the three worst market plunges of the 20th century.

Prior to the mid-1990's, the median dividend yield on the S&P 500 had been about 4.1%. Then, the market launched into what would ultimately become a valuation bubble, followed by a decade of dismal returns for investors. Since then, the dividend yield on the S&P 500 has regularly dipped below 2.65%, and as of last week, had dropped to just 2%.

It is not a theory, but simple algebra, that the total return on the S&P 500 over any period of time can be accurately written in terms of its original yield, its terminal yield, and the growth rate of dividends. Specifically,

Total annual return = (1+g)(Yoriginal/Yterminal)^(1/T) - 1 + (Yoriginal+Yterminal)/2

As it happens, the long-term growth rates of S&P 500 dividends, earnings (measured peak-to-peak across economic cycles) and other fundamentals have been remarkably stable for more than 70 years, at about 6% annually, with very little variation even during the inflationary 1970's. Even if one includes the depressed yields of the bubble period, and restrict history to the post-war period, the median dividend yield is 3.7%. Thus, a reasonably good estimate of future 7-year total returns for the S&P 500 is simply:

Total annual return = (1.06)(Yoriginal/.037)^(1/7) - 1 + (Yoriginal + .037)/2

At a 2% dividend yield, this estimate is currently -0.07%.

For historical perspective, the chart below presents the 7-year projected total returns obtained in this manner in blue. The actual subsequent 7-year total return for the S&P 500 is depicted in green. Notice that the performance of this method deteriorated significantly after about 1988, reflecting the fact that terminal yields 7 years later began to depart dramatically from prior historical norms.

In order to understand the departure of that green line (actual 7-year returns) from the blue line (expected 7-year returns), it is important to recognize the effect of bubble valuations in the period since the mid-1990's. One way to understand this impact is to ask the counterfactual question: what would the actual returns of the S&P 500 been if the dividend yield had not broken below the 2.65% level that defined past historical market peaks?

The answer to that question is depicted below by the red line. It presents actual historical 7-year S&P 500 total returns with one restriction. For 7-year periods that ended at a dividend yield of less than 2.65%, the red line presents what the 7-year return would have been if the terminal yield was limited to a 2.65 lower bound.

Here's the kicker:

The difference between the green line and the red line represents the effect of bubble valuations. Had it not been for a period of sustained bubble valuations (which ultimately proved themselves to be bubble valuations by creating a 13 year period of dismal subsequent returns), we find that the yield-based model above would have extended its admirable historical record.

This creates a terrible problem for investors here. Given that the yield on the S&P 500 is now below 2%, it is essential for investors to recognize that they now rely on the achievement and maintenance of sustained bubble valuations in the years ahead. Unless investors believe that bubble valuations can be maintained indefinitely, they can expect little but abysmal returns over the coming 5- 7 year period.

And, like he has before, Hussman drops the "p-word"

The global financial system continues to be unsound in the same way that a Ponzi scheme is unsound: there are not enough cash flows to ultimately service the face value of all the existing obligations over time. A Ponzi scheme may very well be liquid, as long as few people ask for their money back at any given time. But solvency is a different matter - relating to the ability of the assets to satisfy the liabilities.

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 


Grant Says Quantitative Easing Is Just Money Printing BL Video

The Ride of the Keynesian Cowboys Mauldin

Bernanke's Declaration of Independence North

The Effectiveness of QE2 Depends on Quantities... Kasriel

The Fed's Big Tease Continues! Harding

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

 

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

 

MARKET WARNINGS

 

S&P 500 Rally Has `Authority,' Trading Volume May Show BL

 

CURRENCY WARS

 

IMF fails to strike deal over currency frictions Telegraph

 
Finance ministers at the 187-strong lending agency have accused China of imperilling the global recovery by fostering the imbalances that are preventing deficit countries like the US and UK from returning to economic health. European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet last night pointedly reminded China of its commitment last June to "engage in exchange rate flexibility", adding: "There is no need for [emerging economies] to continue to accumulate immense amount of reserve assets."

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told the committee that the IMF had to speak more forcefully about how countries manage their currencies. He called on the IMF to "increase the candour of its surveillance" and said that "meaningful reform of IMF surveillance is a core challenge of the institution".

The IMF could only pledge to "work towards a more balanced pattern of global growth, recognising the responsibilities of deficit and surplus countries".

Recent IMF figures showed Beijing had currency reserves of $2.447 trillion, the largest in the world and nearly 30pc of the global total.

 

Currency battle lines drawn  FT

IMF meeting ends with no resolution

 

IMF meeting dashes hopes on currencies FT

 

Currency wars- Going head to head  FT

 

US, China clash amid fears of currency war AFP

 

Currency Tensions May Be Curbed With IMF Help, Strauss-Kahn Says BL

 

Leaders pledge cooperation on currencies FT

 

Focus: Currency debate heats up Danske

 

Chart: Dollar Dives Swenlin (charts as of Friday 10-08-10)

 
As of 7/14/2010 the U.S. Dollar Index switched from a Trend Model BUY signal to NEUTRAL. This is one of those cases where the Trend Model 20/50-EMA crossover occurred while the 50-EMA was still above the 200-EMA, therefore, a NEUTRAL signal results instead of a sell. Although the model did not allow us to exploit the decline, we were able to sidestep it, which is satisfying in itself. A discretionary short-term shorting opportunity did occur when the PMO topped below the zero line and crossed down through its EMA in September, but our medium-term posture will stick with the discipline of the mechanical model.

 

 

On the daily chart above that the price index has nearly reached the bottom of a proposed declining trend channel. I say "proposed" because a second price bottom has not yet confirmed it. A declining trend is defined by a line drawn across declining tops, and we can estmate the bottom by drawing a line parallel to the declining tops line across the bottom between the two tops. That line is where we will start looking for support.

The problem is that the decline has been extremely sharp, as can be better seen on the weekly chart below. We can see that long-term support is presented by a rising bottoms line, and it will come into play at around 76, approximately where the daily chart channel support will engage.

 

 
Bottom Line: Although the Dollar Index will encounter strong support at around 76, the decline from the June top has been quite accelerated, and for now I think the best we can expect is a bounce off the support before the decline resumes.

 

Dollar crunched again Barr

 

The U.S. dollar dropped to its lowest level since January, even as a prominent Federal Reserve official cast doubt on the assumption that the Fed will move toward another round of asset purchases at next month's regularly scheduled meeting.

Trade trauma ahead?

The U.S. currency fell to 81.8 yen, its lowest since April 1995, and was trading at $1.39 against the euro. The dollar index tumbled to 77.2, matching a low last seen in January.

The latest declines came after Friday's weak jobs report seemingly boosted the case for a return to so-called quantitative easing, in which the Fed buys Treasury bonds to push down interest rates. Private nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 last month, showing a tepid recovery continues but falling short of expected 75,000-job gain.

The figures "are well clear of a 'double-dip' signal for the economy but they are consistent with continued disinflation which supports the case for an expansion of Fed QE at the November FOMC meeting," Tullett Prebon economist Lena Komileva wrote in a note to clients.

But James Bullard, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said in an interview on CNBC Friday that the push toward more easing isn't a "slam dunk" and stressed that members of the Federal Open Market Committee will decide only after reviewing more data on the economy.

Bullard also noted the potential drawbacks to another round of QE, reflecting comments made in recent weeks by other regional Fed presidents.

"This is unchartered waters... (inflation) may get away from us if we are not careful," Bullard said.

Among the chief risks of still looser Fed policy has become apparent in recent weeks with the outbreak of hostilities in currency markets. A weaker dollar pushes up the value of rival currencies, making it harder for growth-strapped countries to export their way out of their problems.

The great fear should the Fed commit to another round of QE, Komileva said, is that it will end up "exporting deflation to the rest of the world through weak domestic demand and global currency majors' strength against the dollar."

 

 

Q3 EARNINGS

Bumpy Earnings Season Ahead for Chip Makers WSJ

 

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

 

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

"The global financial system continues to be unsound in the same way that a Ponzi scheme is unsound: there are not enough cash flows to ultimately service the face value of all the existing obligations over time. A Ponzi scheme may very well be liquid, as long as few people ask for their money back at any given time. But solvency is a different matter - relating to the ability of the assets to satisfy the liabilities."

John Hussman
No Margin of Safety, No Room for Error

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

MONDAY

10-11-10

S M T W T F S
          1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31            

ARCHIVAL

 

READING THE RIGHT BOOKS?  NO TIME?

 

WE HAVE IT ANALYZED & INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST RESEARCH PAPERS!

 

 

ACCEPTING PRE-ORDERS

 

 

 




 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

   

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.