The United States is
facing both a structural and demand problem - it is not the cyclical
recessionary business cycle or the fallout of a credit supply crisis
which the Washington spin would have you believe.
It is my opinion that
the Washington political machine is being forced to take this position,
because it simply does not know what to do about the real dilemma
associated with the implications of the massive structural debt and
deficits facing the US. This is a politically dangerous predicament
because the reality is we are on the cusp of an imminent and
collapse in the standard of living for most Americans.
The politicos’ proven
tool of stimulus spending, which has been the silver bullet solution for
decades to everything that has even hinted of being a problem, is
clearly no longer working. Monetary and Fiscal policy are presently no
match for the collapse of the Shadow Banking System. A $2.1 Trillion YTD
drop in Shadow Banking Liabilities has become an insurmountable problem
for the Federal Reserve without a further and dramatic increase in
Quantitative Easing. The fallout from this action will be an intractable
problem which we will face for the next five to eight years, resulting
in the “Jaws of Death” for the American public.
economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of
‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane
subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail
investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the
institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of
yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any
proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people
are apparently willing to pay any price. As a sailor it feels
like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches
and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew
mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any
eventuality. Are you prepared?
What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane?
Unlike sailors the financial markets do not have the forecasting
technology to protect it from such a possibility. Good sailors before
today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use
of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It
appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial
Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly
looming on the horizon.
Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971 the
increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking.
It has grown unchecked and inevitably became unhinged from world
industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.
Obama conveniently forgot to mention that the BLS just
revised its trailing 12 month NFP number by 366 earlier
today, taking a major Birth/Death biased haircut out of
the propaganda numbers. Which is why when adding all YTD
NFP numbers (excluding census), and excluding the now
revised impact of the 366,000 on a monthly basis (30.5K
from from the January-March numbers), one gets a number of
530K jobs, which is about 62% of the number boasted by
The U.S. lost more jobs than forecast in September,
reflecting a decline in government payrolls that shows the
damage being done by rising fiscal deficits.
Employers cut staffing by 95,000 workers after
a revised 57,000 decrease in August, Labor
Department figures in Washington showed today. The median
estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called
for a 5,000 drop. The
unemployment rateunexpectedly held at 9.6
Private payrolls that exclude government
agencies climbed 64,000, less than forecast,
underscoring the concern expressed by some Federal Reserve
policy makers that the rebound from the worst recession
since the 1930s has been too slow and may require easier
monetary policy. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project
unemployment will average at least 9 percent through 2011,
which may restrain consumer spending, the biggest part of
The Labor Department today also published its
preliminary estimate for the annual benchmark revisions to
payrolls that will be issued in February. They showed the
economy may have lost an additional 366,000 jobs
in the 12 months ended March 2010. The data currently show
a 1.7 million drop in employment during that time.
Longest Since 1948
The jobless rate has equaled or exceeded 9.5 percent
for 14 consecutive months, surpassing the 13-month period
from mid 1982 to mid 1983 as the longest span of elevated
joblessness since monthly records began in 1948.
The decrease in overall payrolls reflected a 77,000
decline of temporary workers hired by the government to
conduct the decennial population count and a 49,800 drop
in teaching jobs at the local government level.
Manufacturing payrolls decreased by 6,000 after
declining 28,000 a month earlier. Economists projected a
2,000 increase for September. Employment at
service-providers decreased 73,000. Construction companies
subtracted 21,000 workers and retailers hired 5,700
Average hourly earnings were little changed at $19.10,
today’s report showed.
Government payrolls decreased by 159,000. State and
local governments reduced employment by 83,000, while the
federal government lost 76,000 jobs.
The average work week for all workers held at 34.2
The so-called underemployment rate -- which includes
part- time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and
people who want work but have given up looking --
increased to 17.1 percent from 16.7 percent. The number of
temporary workers increased to 16,900 after adding 17,700
in August. Payrolls at temporary-help agencies often slows
as companies seeing a steady increase in demand take on
jobs report was a bit of a split decision -- the private
sector jobs number was somewhat decent, but
government job cutting was aggressive. And only half the government cuts were census-related. The rest came from state governments, which are in dire straits.
They don't have their own mini-Feds to keep them
funding, and there hasn't been enough of a re-bubble in
property to get taxes back to their old levels.
Meredith Whitney recently issued a huge report about how the
states represent systemic
risk, and she's absolutely right. They're emerging as the key
economic problem. The states will need bailouts, but the emerging
political situation suggests that's going to be difficult
Meredith Whitney may not be ahead of the curve
on this -- folks have been warning about this for awhile -- but
it's significant that one of the most visible analysts on the
street is warning about the economic
health of the states and the systemic risk they pose to the
economy. She predicts they'll need bailouts, but not
sure they're really going to happen, given that it would require
conservatives in states like Texas and Nebraska to vote for money
to California and Michigan. Seems implausible.e
She's also warning of major
risk to the banks after this quarter, as housing weakens
again. She sees 80,000 in Wall Street layoffs. Who does she like?
Visa and Mastercard, she says, have been unfairly punished
following financial regulations, and she predicts that their
duopoly will survive.
When we had the financial crisis, the first thing the banks
did was run to Congress and ask for accounting relief. They asked
to be able to avoid pricing this stuff at the price where people
would buy them. So no one can tell you the size of the hole in
these balance sheets. We’ve thrown a lot of money at it. TARP was
just the tip of the iceberg. We’ve given them guarantees on debts,
low-cost funding from the Fed. But a lot of these mortgages just
cannot be saved. Had we acknowledged this problem in 2005, we
could’ve cleaned it up for a few hundred billion dollars. But we
didn’t. Banks were lying and committing fraud, and our regulators
were covering them and so a bad problem has become a hellacious
one. Many investors now are waking up to the fact that they were
defrauded. Even sophisticated investors. If you did your due
diligence but material information was withheld, you can recover.
It’ll be a case-by-by-case basis.
This can be done with a
resolution trust corporation, the way we cleaned up the S&Ls. The
system got back on its feet faster because we grappled with the
problems. The shareholders would be wiped out and the debt holders
would have to take a discount on their debt and they’d get a
debt-for-equity swap. Instead we poured TARP money into a pit and
meanwhile the banks are paying huge bonuses to some people who
should be made accountable for fraud. The financial crisis was a
product of our irrational reaction, which protected crony
capitalism rather than capitalism. In capitalism, the shareholders
who took the risk would be wiped out and the debt holders would
take a discount but banking would go on.
President Barack Obama
killed proposed legislation on Thursday that struck at the heart of growing
political rage over how banks have moved to evict struggling borrowers from
their homes. The bill, which would have made it more difficult for homeowners to challenge
foreclosures, came under the spotlight this week as the furor grew over
disclosures that some of the biggest U.S. mortgage processors filed false
affidavits in thousands of foreclosure cases.
Obama sent the bill back to the House of Representatives for
further discussion on how it would affect the foreclosure crisis,
one of the most visible signs of the deep economic problems
gripping the country. The chorus of calls from political leaders
for a suspension of foreclosures grew on Thursday, with Senate
Majority Leader Harry Reid and Representative Ed Towns, the
Democratic chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and
Government Reform, adding their voices.
The bill, the Interstate Recognition of Notarizations
Act, cruised through the Senate last week with no public
debate and could have shielded bank
and mortgage processors from liability for foreclosure documents
that were prepared improperly.
"We believe it is necessary to have further deliberations about
the intended and unintended impact of this bill on consumer
protections, including those for mortgages, before this bill can
be finalized," the White House communications director, Dan
Pfeiffer, said in a blog posting. In a development first
reported by Reuters, the bill would
have required courts to accept all out-of-state notarizations,
including those stamped en masse by computers in a practice that
critics say has been improperly used to expedite foreclosure
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who is fighting a tough bid
for reelection in Nevada, where foreclosure rates have been the
highest in the nation, on Thursday called for the largest mortgage
servicers to suspend foreclosures in Nevada. And Towns, a
New York Democrat, called for top mortgage lenders and banks to
voluntarily halt all foreclosures in the country and asked New
York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to investigate allegations of
fraud and other possible criminal activity.
"Losing a home can be one of the most traumatic experiences
faced by an American family. Anyone forced to go through this
process should be treated fairly. Sadly, it appears this may not
have been the case for some borrowers," Towns said in a statement.
So far, Ally Financial Inc's GMAC Mortgage, JPMorgan Chase & Co
and Bank of America have all announced that they are suspending
some of their foreclosures to review whether they have been
conducting them properly. Wells Fargo has said that it is
"confident" in its foreclosure paperwork, and Citigroup has also
not announced plans to halt foreclosures despite increased
pressure from state attorneys general and lawmakers in Washington.
Banks are expected to take over a record 1.2 million homes
this year, up from about 1 million last year, according to real
estate data company RealtyTrac Inc.
False notarizations figured in disclosures that GMAC, JPMorgan
and other big mortgage processors filed false affidavits in
thousands of cases, part of the wave of foreclosures that erupted
in the wake of the financial and economic crisis. The U.S.
Justice Department said Wednesday it was probing reports the
nation's top mortgage lenders improperly evicted struggling
borrowers as growing numbers of lawmakers on both sides of the
aisle demanded investigations.
But while many householders may cheer efforts to get tough with
banks, some experts say any blanket halt to foreclosures could
risk further hobbling the economy as banks wonder whether they
will ever claw back losses and the
housing market grapples with by a mounting inventory of homes
still likely to face foreclosure in future.
Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross said on Thursday the
foreclosure debacle could slow the lending process, seen as key to
pumping life back into the U.S. economy.
"I think it's more of a clogging of the system and introducing
another note of uncertainty," Ross said at a Reuters summit on
restructuring in New York.
Obama's decision not to sign the bill capped a week which saw
the legislation, passed by the House in April, suddenly pushed
through the Senate Judiciary Committee and approved by the full
Senate on September 27, the day before the Senate recessed for the
midterm election campaign.
Passage of the bill caught homeowners' advocates, including
lawyers and some state officials, by surprise with some saying the
timing seemed peculiar.
The bill had received almost no public attention but stirred
controversy once the Senate's rapid passage of bill became public.
Congressional staffers said many lawmakers and White House
officials initially didn't realize that the bill, which nominally
deals only with notarizations, could have big impact on
Former Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan said the U.S. fiscal deficit is “scary” and the
federal government needs to cut spending on
“We’re involved in a dangerous game,” Greenspan said yesterday
at a foreign-exchange conference in New York sponsored by
Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News. “We’re increasing the
debt held by the public at a pace that is closing” the gap between
our debt and “any measure of borrowing capacity,” Greenspan said.
“That cushion is growing very narrow.”
U.S. companies may be holding back on investment because of the
deficit, which causes uncertainty about future tax policies,
Greenspan said in an opinion article for the Financial Times this
week. Weak investment by businesses in capital equipment and fixed
assets has helped to crimp the U.S. economic recovery, he said.
“You need” austerity, said Greenspan, a paid speaker at the
event. “We’re going to have to start to cut” from government
entitlement programs, he said, adding that reducing the budget is
better than raising taxes in closing the U.S. budget deficit.
Still, Greenspan reiterated that he supports allowing tax cuts
enacted under President
George W. Bush to lapse at the end of 2010.
The White House Office of Management and Budget in July
projected the deficit for fiscal 2010, which ended Sept. 30, at
$1.47 trillion and the gap for fiscal 2011 at $1.42 trillion.
Barack Obama formed a commission in February charged with
presenting a plan by Dec. 1 on how to reduce deficits over the
“It is crucially important that we put U.S. fiscal policy on a
sustainable path,” Bernanke said in an Oct. 4 speech. “The
only real question” is whether adjustments to taxes and spending
will come from a “careful and deliberative process” or from a
“rapid and painful response to a looming or actual fiscal crisis,”
Bernanke said in Providence, Rhode Island. U.S. lawmakers should
consider adopting rules that limit federal spending or debt, he
Greenspan said that if the Fed decides to expand its balance
sheet through purchases of bonds, a process known as quantitative
easing, it may not be enough to get “money moving” and spur growth
in the U.S. economy. Should the Fed increase “excess reserves and
they just sit there on the asset side of commercial banks’ balance
sheets not being relent, you’ve merely gone through an interesting
bookkeeping exercise,” Greenspan said. “You’ve got to break that
psychology that prevents that current trillion” in reserves from
being relent, he said.
yields fell to the lowest ever yesterday, setting or matching
a record for a fifth consecutive day. Investors have stepped up
bets that the Fed will resume buying bonds to keep borrowing costs
“It is very difficult to think through the scenario by which
you induce” commercial banks to lend, Greenspan said. “If you
don’t do this, quantitative easing can’t do anything to speak of.”
U.S. central bankers have kept their
benchmark lending rate near zero for almost two years. In
March, they finished $1.7 trillion in purchases of Treasuries,
mortgage-backed securities and housing agency bonds.
A slowdown in growth in the middle two quarters of this year
Federal Open Market Committee last month to warn that
inflation rates were “somewhat below” its mandate to achieve
stable prices and full employment.
New York Fed President
William Dudley, who is also vice chairman of the FOMC, went
further in an Oct. 1 speech when he called current levels of
unemployment and inflation “unacceptable.” “Further action is
likely to be warranted,” Dudley said.
We now have prima facie evidence that the SEC is lying. We
wonder: just how many pieces of silver did it cost the HFT lobby
to bribe Schapiro and her Princeton physicist (what is it about
this university and the caliber of "talent" it generates?) Gregg
Berman to skew the data so much it is beyond laughable. In our
ongoing expose of what really happened on May 6, Zero Hedge is
happy to have collaborated with both W&R and Nanex to bring our
readers the full truth behind the flash crash. Here it is...
To see the prevailing schizophrenia gripping the two different
sets of mindsets in the market right now, look no further than
than the surging divergence between equity vol and implied
correlation (VIX, JCJ) and credit vol (via swaptions: USSV011).
The chart below shows that even as equity traders are going full
retard into QE2, rate guys are running for cover (guess what, the
fact that going forward Americans will not pay mortgages again,
likely for many months if not years, is not good news).
And an even more stunning demonstration of the full
retardation of our once proud equity trader class, is the record
surge in implied correlation between Jan 2011 and Jan 2012.
Translation: the world is fine through the New Year, then it is
all going to hell.
The silver markets are rigged. Every day. Every trade. Every option. Every
derivative. The silver markets have been rigged since the early 1970's when Alan
Greenspan introduced computer market trading systems to the world beginning the
long term commodity market rigging operation. Since that time there has not been a day when the silver markets have been
"freely traded". Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, knows the true "Fair Market Value"
of silver! But like all
price suppression schemes, the silver manipulation must come to an end and we
are on the brink of that moment. The only remaining question should be "What is
the true value of silver in terms of money?" First a
little background to set the stage.
Beginning in the early 1970's, computers were introduced to control the order
flow in financial markets. Order processing was drastically changed with the New
York Stock Exchange's "designated order turnaround" system (DOT, and later
SuperDOT) which routed orders electronically to the proper trading post to be
executed manually, and the "opening automated reporting system" (OARS) which
aided the specialist in determining the market clearing opening price (SOR;
Smart Order Routing).
Today we have algorithmic trading, auto trading, algo trading, black-box
trading, robo trading…and the list goes on. Algorithmic Trading is widely used
by pension funds, mutual funds, and other buy side institutional traders, to
divide large trades into several smaller trades in order to manage market
impact, and risk. Sell side traders, such as market makers and hedge funds,
claim to provide "liquidity to the market", generating and executing orders
automatically. In "high frequency trading" (HFT) computers make the decision to
initiate orders based on information that is received electronically, before
human traders are even aware of the information.
Over the years computers have played an increasingly important role in
everything related to our "free and open market system" such that today's
financial markets CANNOT function without computers. The Federal Reserve, US
Treasury, Wall Street insiders and the Exchanges were all instrumental in the
integration of computers but they also gained access to secret trading
information before the order hit the open market. This information coupled with
the fastest computers on earth made market manipulation easy. This power, the power to control markets, was too much for anyone to resist.
Over time those who were given the official key to the back office operations
have used and abused their position to its manipulative fullest. Although some
of the time they used this power in an official capacity (for the good of the
country), more often than not it was used in an unofficial capacity… for the
good of themselves. Bernie Madoff, the ex-head of the NASAQ, was a great example of this public to
private transition as his private trading firm was all computer algorithm based
market rigging operations. There are many other ex-Exchange/Wall Street officers
that went on to open computer trading operations. Many continue to thrive such
as EWT, LLC which became a dominant trading/market making firm using
"state-of-the-art technology and algorithmic models". EWT was founded by Vincent
Viola (ex NYMEX Chairman) and David Salomon (reported to Robert Ruben at Goldman
Sachs) and are also an "Authorized Participant" in the iShares Silver ETF (SLV). Are you
beginning to see the problem? He who has the biggest, fastest and smartest
computers (or programmers) can set the price and will ALWAYS WIN! No longer is
there any kind of true supply/demand factors related to commodity exchanges or
prices. Computer trading should be outlawed…the convenience and efficiency it
provides does not offset the detrimental effects and potential for total and
complete market manipulation.
CFTC Created to
Cover Up the Manipulation
computer rigging programs were implemented there needed to be some kind of cover
to ensure secrecy and maintain a false confidence in free markets. In 1974
Congress passed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Act that overhauled the
Commodity Exchange Act and created the CFTC as an independent agency with powers
greater than those of its predecessor agency, the Commodity Exchange Authority.
From that moment the CFTC has been run by board appointees that showcased a
revolving door of Wall Street insiders ensuring that the computer market rigging
operations were not interfered with. The only notable exception is Brooksley
Born who was fired by President Clinton when she found out the truth about our
supposed "free markets" and tried to warn everyone. (see The Warning)
A while back
I gave up my fight against the CFTC as I determined that they were NOT
protecting the best interest of the investor but rather they were protecting the
computer market rigging operations and the people involved. Now that you
have some background let's get back to $6,000 Silver!
Historically, when any price rigging operation stops the violence of the ensuing
price changes are determined by the length and scale of the manipulation as well
as the underlying fundamentals of the item being rigged. Take for example the
famous 1980's case of the Hunt brothers trying to corner the silver market. From
early 1974 the Hunt brothers started accumulating silver which ultimately drove
the price from $6/oz to $50/oz until January 21, 1980 when the CFTC finally
pulled the plug on their operation. Within 2 months the price of silver
plummeted from $50/oz to $10/oz and the silver price was back under control of
the US Government and Banking Cabal. An excellent account of what transpired can
be found here:
This account shows what can happen to the price of a manipulated commodity when
the price manipulation is ended. In the case of the Hunt Brothers the
manipulation lasted 6 years and involved approximately 130M oz of physical
silver and 90M oz of COMEX silver contracts. This was an attempt at a Long
Silver price manipulation but it was going on while the Short Silver Official
manipulation was going on trying to keep the price down. The only way the Hunt's
accumulated so much silver without the price heading into the many thousands of
dollars was the official computer price suppression operation. The
manipulation was ended when the CFTC stopped all COMEX Silver purchases and
allowed only silver liquidation sales instantly driving the price down. In 1980
the US Government held 3B oz of silver and in order to maintain the lower silver
price levels they sold the entire stock of silver into the market over the next
25 years. That excess supply combined with other governments divesting their
silver was enough to continue the price suppression scheme for almost 40 years.
That supply is now gone.
One Bank has the
So here we
are 40 years after the official manipulation of silver began and the world is
finally awakening to the situation. The CFTC, having investigated silver
manipulation allegations twice previously, has had an open investigation into
silver market manipulation for almost 2 years. They have even stated that the
investigation was moved to the "Enforcement Division" within the CFTC which
pretty much tells you what the conclusion of the investigation revealed. The FBI
has separately stated that they are investigating JP Morgan for silver market
manipulation. These two facts and the absolute SILENCE from JP Morgan are strong
indicators that the long term manipulation of silver is about to end. Ted Butler of Butler Research has been exposing the official manipulation of
Silver for the past 25 years. His research was instrumental in exposing the
gold/silver leasing operations and the massive concentrated short positions in
both gold and silver. On September 3, 2008 Butler published a report entitled
Fact Versus Speculation where he showed how one bank, JP Morgan Chase, took over
the Bear Stearns Silver COMEX Short position of 30,000 contracts or 150M oz.
report was published JP Morgan has continued its silver market rigging antics in
an effort to get out of this precarious short position. After Butler exposed JPM
as the culprit there have been wild orchestrated swings in the price of silver
as JPM attempts to cover their massive COMEX short position. The price of silver
has risen from $13 to currently over $20 in this time frame and the size of the
short position held by JP Morgan has gyrated wildly between 30k and 40k
contracts as they desperately try to shake the longs to cover their shorts. But
even with this rise in price the short position is STILL above 30k contracts
according to the CFTC's latest Bank Participation Report.
Add to this various silver market manipulation tools such as naked shorting
silver ETF's, falsifying COMEX warehouse data, unallocated silver, leasing and
swapping metal and you have a situation that dwarfs the Hunt brothers case. Of course, JP Morgan is no ordinary bank because they are also the LARGEST
derivative holder in the WORLD at $75.3 TRILLION! Do remember Warren Buffett
calling derivatives "Weapons of Mass Financial Destruction"? Well, JP Morgan
holds the mother load when it comes to silver too with $8.4 BILLION of Silver
(OCC Report table 9: Classified as "PREC
METALS"… might be a little platinum but not much). This report was for the quarter ending June 2010 when the price of silver was
$18.50. That translates into over 450 MILLION OUNCES of notional silver
derivative contracts that remain open!
COME ON PEOPLE!
I'm starting to think my $6,000/oz silver call is too conservative! What's going
to happen when JP Morgan's derivative monument comes crashing down…which it
almost did in September 2008? So here's
where I get to $6,000 per oz for silver.
1) I know
silver has not been freely traded in 40 years so today's price if irrelevant.
2) I, like many, estimate there is only about 1B ounces in above ground physical
silver for investment purposes. 3) I, like many, estimate there is only 5B ounces of above ground physical gold
for investment purposes. 4) If the
price of gold is not manipulated, like the banks claim, then the price of silver
should be 5x the price of gold due to its supply/demand fundamentals.
CONCLUSION: The price of gold is around $1,300/oz so the true Fair Market
Value of Silver should be over $6,000/oz in a FREE market!
It's simple, if you remove
ONE BANK from the supply side of the equation
the price of silver will SKYROCKET overnight.
controls the price of silver.
controls the fate of our monetary system.
is behind the curtain pulling the silver manipulation levers.
has control over a nation that was founded by "We the People".
“Within a single week 25 nations have
deliberately slashed the values of their currencies. Nothing
quite comparable with this has ever happened before in the history
of the world.”
Ben Davies, CEO of Hinde Capital
Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and
does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion
only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as
recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or
any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his
statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own
credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a
qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory
agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment
decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your
own before making important investment commitments.ont>
This site contains
copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically
authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in
our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human
rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We
believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as
provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with
Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed
without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the
included information for research and educational purposes.
If you wish to use
copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond
'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.
Gordon T Long
is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments
are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner
whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond,
commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his
statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own
credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified
investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your
legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that,
we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important