Gordon T Long

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PRESERVE & PROTECT: The Jaws of Death

 

The United States is facing both a structural and demand problem - it is not the cyclical recessionary business cycle or the fallout of a credit supply crisis which the Washington spin would have you believe.

 

It is my opinion that the Washington political machine is being forced to take this position, because it simply does not know what to do about the real dilemma associated with the implications of the massive structural debt and deficits facing the US.  This is a politically dangerous predicament because the reality is we are on the cusp of an imminent and significant collapse in the standard of living for most Americans.

 

The politicos’ proven tool of stimulus spending, which has been the silver bullet solution for decades to everything that has even hinted of being a problem, is clearly no longer working. Monetary and Fiscal policy are presently no match for the collapse of the Shadow Banking System. A $2.1 Trillion YTD drop in Shadow Banking Liabilities has become an insurmountable problem for the Federal Reserve without a further and dramatic increase in Quantitative Easing. The fallout from this action will be an intractable problem which we will face for the next five to eight years, resulting in the “Jaws of Death” for the American public.  READ MORE

 

 

   

 

PRESERVE & PROTECT: Mapping the Tipping Points

The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people are apparently willing to pay any price.  As a sailor it feels like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any eventuality. Are you prepared?

 

What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane? Unlike sailors the financial markets do not have the forecasting technology to protect it from such a possibility. Good sailors before today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial community.

 

Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly looming on the horizon.

Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971 the increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking. It has grown unchecked and inevitably became unhinged from world industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.  READ MORE


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

POSTS:  FRIDAY 10-01-10

Last Update: 10/02/2010 06:10 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Europe's austerity anger grows Prichard X                  
Greeks rush through law giving tax amnesties FT X                  
Spain in Flames The Sun X                  
Moody's Cuts Spain's Rating WSJ X                  
Portugal Yields Hit 13-Year High to Spain as Deficits Diverge Bloomberg X                  
Canadian GDP shrinks, first time in 11 months G&M X                  
Fears Ireland may seek EU rescue Times X                  
Hedge funds hold Ireland to ransom Telegraph X                  
Final bill for toxic Anglo could now reach 34bn Irish Indep X                  
Ireland faces "horrendous" bank bill Reuters X                  
Dublin to pump up to 3 billion euros into Allied Irish-report Reuters X                  
S&P Puts MONSTER Price Tag On Anglo Irish Bailout, Spreads Widen To New Record, Stocks Tank BI X                  
Japan Sold $25 Billion in Yen in First Intervention Since 2004 Bloomberg X                  
USA                      
Manufacturing sector expanded in September for the 14th consecutive month ISM X                  
Consumer Spending in U.S. Rose More Than Forecast in August Bloomberg X                  
Consumer mood weaker than expected in September Reuters X                  
Economy in U.S. Grew 1.7% in Second Quarter as Recovery Slowed Bloomberg X                  
Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased 16,000 to 453,000 Last Week Bloomberg X                  
10% Savings Rate + Consumer Spending at 65% of GDP = Retail Disaster Jim Quinn X                  
Top U.S. CEOs less optimistic on economy MW X                  
EPS, junk bond yields match first time since 1987 MW     X              
Local Taxes Sway Congress Races WSJ       X            
State and Local Tax Revenue Inches Up WSJ       X            
Whitney: U.S. may face bailout for states Bloomberg       X            
Big Banks Face Even Bigger Increase in Required Capital CNBC           X        
Riskier assets struggle as September surge ebbs FT             X      
Foreclosure Flaws May Delay Recovery by Slowing Home-Price Fall Bloomberg                 X  
Latest US Foreclosure 'Mess' Will Unfold State by State CNBC                 X  
Strategic Defaults Real Estate Channel                 X  
JPMorgan halts 50K foreclosures for possible flaws AP                 X  
Distressed Homes Sell at 26% Discount in U.S. as Supply Swells Bloomberg                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
'US-China FX feud can mar G20' Korea Times             X      
From currency warfare to lasting peace VOX             X      
Yuan Weakens for First Time in 13 Days After U.S. Lawmakers Approve Duties Bloomberg             X      
Congress to China: Let the trade wars begin! Leonard             X      
How to Start a Trade War WSJ             X      
China targeted in bill on currency manipulation AP             X      
China says U.S. yuan bill violates WTO Reuters             X      
Is China's Yuan Intervention Coming To An End? Northern Trust             X      
The White House and Congress Bond Over the Chinese Yuan NBR             X      
                       
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Central banks face crisis Kemp                    
Greenspan said the "most effective" stimulus is rising stock prices USAT
Fed Mulls New Bond Approach WSJ                    
Gonzalo Lira- How The Fed Gave Away $1.5 Trillion Through Stealth Monetization BI                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Why macro forces are confounding stockpickers WSJ                    
Dow `Super Boom' to Drive Average to 38,820 by 2025, Hirsch Says Bloomberg                    
White House Seeks Better Wiretap Law WSJ                    
Sornette Critical Market Crashes Sornette                    
FLASH CRASH                      
Progress Energy joins flash crash crowd (Updated) Fortune                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Thursday: Stocks Set for Best September in 70 Years CNBC                    
October could be tough on tech shares Barrons                    
Man Group- Profit to Fall 26% WSJ                    
The Hottest Comparison Around- The S&P Today Is The NASDAQ 2000 BI                    

CURRENCY WARS

                     
Geithner Says No Threat of China Trade War or Currency Wars Bloomberg                    
Race to the Bottom Schiff                    
Brazil in ‘currency war’ alert FT                    
Hostilities escalate to hidden currency war FT                    
Strains in currency rate blocs FT                    
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
IMF says sold 594,000 ounces gold in August Reuters                    
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





10-01-10


1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

Europe's austerity anger grows Pritchard 

 

GREECE

Greeks rush through law giving tax amnesties  FT

 

SPAIN

Spain in Flames  The Sun

Moody's Cuts Spain's Rating  WSJ

 

PORTUGAL

Portugal Yields Hit 13-Year High to Spain as Deficits Diverge BL

 

CANADA

Canadian GDP shrinks, first time in 11 months G&M

 

IRELAND

Fears Ireland may seek EU rescue Times

 
"Ireland is now approaching the point where Greece was before its problems blew up and it remains to be seen whether today's measures draw a line under it."

 

Hedge funds hold Ireland to ransom Telegraph

 

Final bill for toxic Anglo could now reach 34bn Irish Inde

 

Ireland faces "horrendous" bank bill  Reuters


Dublin to pump up to 3 billion euros into Allied Irish-report Reuters

 

S&P Puts MONSTER Price Tag On Anglo Irish Bailout, Spreads Widen To New Record, Stocks Tank  BI


JAPAN

Japan Sold $25 Billion in Yen in First Intervention Since 2004 BL

 
“The number exceeded expectations somewhat and may add to speculation they intervened more than once”

 

USA

 

time (et) report period Actual Consensus
forecast
previous
FRIDAY, Oct. 1
8:30 am Personal income Aug. 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%
8:30 am Consumer spending Aug. 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
10 am Consumer sentiment Sept. 68.2 67.2 66.6
10 am ISM Sept. 54.4% 54.0% 56.3%
10 am Construction spending Aug. 0.4% -0.5% -1.4%
TBA Motor vehicle sales Sept.   11.6 mln 11.5 mln

 

Manufacturing sector expanded in September for the 14th consecutive month ISM

Consumer Spending in U.S. Rose More Than Forecast in August BL BEA

Consumer mood weaker than expected in September Reuters

Economy in U.S. Grew 1.7% in Second Quarter as Recovery Slowed BL

BEAJobless Claims in U.S. Decreased 16,000 to 453,000 Last Week BL10%

Savings Rate + Consumer Spending at 65% of GDP = Retail Disaster
JimQ

Top U.S. CEOs less optimistic on economy MW

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

EPS, junk bond yields match first time since 1987 MW

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Local Taxes Sway Congress Races  WSJ

 

State and Local Tax Revenue Inches Up  WSJ

 

Whitney: U.S. may face bailout for states BL Video

5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


Big Banks Face Even Bigger Increase in Required Capital CNBC

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

Riskier assets struggle as September surge ebbs  FT

Financial stocks hit by Anglo Irish downgrade

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Foreclosure Flaws May Delay Recovery by Slowing Home-Price Fall BL

 

Latest US Foreclosure 'Mess' Will Unfold State by State CNBC

 

Strategic Defaults  Real Estate Channnel

 

JPMorgan halts 50K foreclosures for possible flaws AP

 

Distressed Homes Sell at 26% Discount in U.S. as Supply Swells BL

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


'US-China FX feud can mar G20' Korea Times 

From currency warfare to lasting peace VOX

Yuan Weakens for First Time in 13 Days After U.S. Lawmakers Approve Duties BL
”The fixing shows the Chinese government’s attitude towards the vote”

Congress to China: Let the trade wars begin! Leonard 

How to Start a Trade War WSJ

China targeted in bill on currency manipulation AP
The 348-79 vote sends the measure to the Senate...

China says U.S. yuan bill violates WTO Reuters

Is China's Yuan Intervention Coming To An End? Northern Trust
If there is one thing Beijing does not respond well to, it is being pushed around by foreign interests.

The White House and Congress Bond Over the Chinese Yuan NBR

Slip of the tongue or not, the president's 10% figure is on the low end.

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

Central banks face crisis Kemp 

 

Greenspan said the "most effective" stimulus is rising stock prices USAT

 

Fed Mulls New Bond Approach  WSJ

Fed officials are considering new tactics if they resume purchases of long-term U.S. Treasury securities. They are weighing a more open-ended, smaller-scale program that they could adjust as the recovery unfolds.

Rather than announce massive bond purchases with a finite end, as they did in 2009 to shock the U.S. financial system back to life, Fed officials are weighing a more open-ended, smaller-scale program that they could adjust as the recovery unfolds.

The Fed hasn't yet committed to stepping up its bond purchases, and members haven't settled on an approach. After its meeting last week, the Fed's policy committee said it was "prepared" to take new steps if needed.

A decision on whether to buy more bonds depends on incoming data about economic growth and inflation; if the economy picks up steam, officials might decide no action is needed.

But having pushed short-term rates to near zero, it now has to devise new, untested approaches at almost every turn. A misstep could lead to unintended consequences, one factor that makes officials wary and investors jittery about its every move.


Gonzalo Lira- How The Fed Gave Away $1.5 Trillion Through Stealth Monetization  BI

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

  Why macro forces are confounding stockpickers WSJ

 

Dow `Super Boom' to Drive Average to 38,820 by 2025, Hirsch Says  BL
Hirsch’s forecast comes more than a decade after James K. Glassman and Kevin A. Hassett predicted the Dow would rise to 36,000 by 2005...

 

White House Seeks Better Wiretap Law  WSJ

 
The Obama administration wants a more airtight eavesdropping law that would help law enforcement conduct real-time snooping when people use social-networking sites and other communications technologies.

A 1994 federal law helped law enforcement keep pace with emerging digital and wireless technology by requiring that telecommunications companies alter their facilities and technology to aid court-authorized wiretapping by law enforcement agencies.

However, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agencies in recent years have expressed concerns that some of the newest communications technologies, often developed by tiny start-up companies, leave gaps not covered by the existing law, called the Communications Assistance to Law Enforcement Act. These gaps hamper investigators, federal officials say.

Those officials say the technologies that aren't as readily eavesdropped-on in real time include voice-over-Internet-protocol, which allows calls to be made over broadband internet links instead of analog phone lines; peer-to-peer communications, best exemplified by sites where users download music or video files; social networking sites such as Facebook; and services such as Blackberry Messenger.

 
A key excerpt from the paper:

If large financial crashes are “outliers”, they are special and thus require a special explanation, a specific model, a theory of their own. In addition, their special properties may perhaps be used for their prediction. The main mechanisms leading to positive feedbacks, i.e., self-reinforcement, such as imitative behavior and herding between investors are reviewed with many references provided to the relevant literature outside the narrow confine of Physics. Positive feedbacks provide the fuel for the development of speculative bubbles, preparing the instability for a major crash. We demonstrate several detailed mathematical models of speculative bubbles and crashes. A frst model posits that the crash hazard drives the market price. The crash hazard may sky-rocket at some times due to the collective behavior of “noise traders”, those who act on little information, even if they think they “know”. A second version inverses the logic and posits that prices drive the crash hazard. Prices may skyrocket at some times again due to the speculative or imitative behavior of investors. According the rational expectation model, this entails automatically a corresponding increase of the probability for a crash. We also review two other models including the competition between imitation and contrarian behavior and between value investors and technical analysts. The most important message is the discovery of robust and universal signatures of the approach to crashes. These  precursory patterns have been documented for essentially all crashes on developed as well as emergent stock markets, on currency markets, on company stocks, and so on. We review this discovery at length and demonstratehow to use this insight and the detailed predictions obtained from these models to forecast crashes.

Sornette Critical Market Crashes  

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

Progress Energy joins flash crash crowd (Updated)  Fortune
Then there was a flash crash today. Progress Energy fell from over $40 to around $4 in a few minutes (before recovering). It's just one stock, but it confirmed that the post May 6 circuit breakers don't work as advertised -- another blow to confidence in the financial markets.

 

MARKET WARNINGS

 

Thursday: Stocks Set for Best September in 70 Years CNBC

 

October could be tough on tech shares Barron’s


Man Group- Profit to Fall 26%  WSJ
Man Group reported further outflows from its funds and said first-half pretax profit will be about 26% less than last year's, as a planned $1.6 billion buy of rival GLG Partners nears completion.

 

The Hottest Comparison Around- The S&P Today Is The NASDAQ 2000  BI

 

 

 

 

CURRENCY WARS

 

Geithner Says No Threat of China Trade War or Currency Wars BL

 
Geithner said today he wasn’t sure “what that means” to talk about a “currency war.” In any case, he said, “we’re not going to have currency wars.”

 

Race to the Bottom  Schiff

 

Brazil in ‘currency war’ alert  FT

 

Hostilities escalate to hidden currency war  FT

 

Strains in currency rate blocs  FT

 

There are two massive fixed exchange rate blocs operating in the world economy today, and both of them face severe strains and conflicts. The eurozone is beset by problems which are typical of fixed rate blocs in the past, with the main surplus country (Germany) refusing to increase aggregate demand, thus forcing the deficit countries to reduce demand in order to stay within the currency arrangement. This, they appear willing to do, or at least to try.

Meanwhile, the China/US bloc also has a (nearly) fixed exchange rate, and once again the surplus country (China) is refusing, or is unable, to expand domestic demand enough to eliminate the trade imbalance. But, in this case, the deficit country (the US) is increasingly unwilling to accept the consequences, and is adopting policies which are designed to break up the bloc altogether. Two blocs with somewhat similar problems, but very different responses and outcomes for the deficit countries.

This pattern of trade deficits can only persist as long as there are offsetting capital flows within the two blocs, and for many years this was the case. The required capital flows within the eurozone, from Germany to the peripheries, were facilitated by the existence of the single currency, which created the illusion that investments in the deficit countries were largely risk free. In the Sino/China zone, the required capital flows were mainly driven by the foreign exchange intervention of the Chinese central bank, which resulted in huge official flows from China into US Treasuries. These equilibria persisted for many years, so the trade imbalances within the two blocs just grew and grew.

The IMF has suggested that a better way forward would be for the surplus countries, Germany and China, to relieve these pressures by boosting domestic demand, and are trying to persuade the G20 to agree to such a package at the summit in South Korea in November. A co-ordinated policy shift in which the surplus countries raise demand, the deficit countries cut their fiscal deficits, and the RMB is revalued, is likely to be optimal for all parties.

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

 

IMF says sold 594,000 ounces gold in August Reuters

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

“No country in the world can hold the dollar”

Brazilian central bank President Henrique Meirelles


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

FRIDAY

10-01-10

SEPTEMBER
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TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

   

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.