Gordon T Long

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PRESERVE & PROTECT: The Jaws of Death

 

The United States is facing both a structural and demand problem - it is not the cyclical recessionary business cycle or the fallout of a credit supply crisis which the Washington spin would have you believe.

 

It is my opinion that the Washington political machine is being forced to take this position, because it simply does not know what to do about the real dilemma associated with the implications of the massive structural debt and deficits facing the US.  This is a politically dangerous predicament because the reality is we are on the cusp of an imminent and significant collapse in the standard of living for most Americans.

 

The politicos’ proven tool of stimulus spending, which has been the silver bullet solution for decades to everything that has even hinted of being a problem, is clearly no longer working. Monetary and Fiscal policy are presently no match for the collapse of the Shadow Banking System. A $2.1 Trillion YTD drop in Shadow Banking Liabilities has become an insurmountable problem for the Federal Reserve without a further and dramatic increase in Quantitative Easing. The fallout from this action will be an intractable problem which we will face for the next five to eight years, resulting in the “Jaws of Death” for the American public.  READ MORE

 

 

   

 

PRESERVE & PROTECT: Mapping the Tipping Points

The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people are apparently willing to pay any price.  As a sailor it feels like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any eventuality. Are you prepared?

 

What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane? Unlike sailors the financial markets do not have the forecasting technology to protect it from such a possibility. Good sailors before today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial community.

 

Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly looming on the horizon.

Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971 the increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking. It has grown unchecked and inevitably became unhinged from world industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.  READ MORE


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

POSTS:  WEEKEND 09-25-10

Last Update: 09/26/2010 06:15 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
                       
Spain Under Pressure to Show `Hair Shirt' Budget as Yields Rise Bloomberg X                  
Spain unveils ‘austere’ 2011 budget FT X                  
German Business Confidence Unexpectedly Increased in September Bloomberg X                  
Bubble or not, Canadian markets in for rude awakening Rosenberg X                  
Ireland faces double dip, mulls restructuring of junior bank debt Telegraph Prichard X                  
Residential land prices down for 19th straight year in Japan AP X                  
BOJ expands fund supply, nears quantitative easing Reuters X                  
Shorting Bonds Will Be 'Trade of the Decade': Kass CNBC     X              
The Bastard Child of The Mother of All Bubbles Burning Platform     X              
Regulators seize 3 failing wholesale corporate credit unions USA Today           X        
August New Home Sales Second Slowest on Record AP                 X  
Home sales on pace to finish year as bad as 2009 AP                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Obama asks Wen for more action on yuan Reuters             X      
The Real Economic Cost of Government Is Spending – So, What Do You Want to Cut? Kasriel                 X  
Throwing away freedom for outrageous promises Hernando Today                 X  
Budget Gap Means Extending Tax Cuts a Bad Idea, Greenspan Says Bloomberg                 X  
REMAINING                      
Louis Dreyfus and Olam in merger talks FT                   31
Food traders share global ambitions FT                   31
Singapore’s Olam FT                   31
                       
BP OIL                      
BP's Shock Waves Taibbi                    
The real BP lesson: Oil is killing us USA Today                    
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Implications of the Financial Crisis for Economics Bernanke                    
Bernanke defends economic models that missed crisis MW                    
Volcker Spares No One in Broad Critique WSJ                    
Former Fed Chief Volcker `Not Worried' About Deflation Bloomberg                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
PROOF! Global Governance 2025 Planned by US & EU Intelligence Agencies Document Obtained Thru FOIA Before its News                    
A Recovery That Looks Like Recession Comstock                    
Simple Planet: Confronting Our Complicity Simple Planet                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Investors hail S&P 500’s stealthly revival FT                    
Investors Are Deaf to the Screams of Gold, Cotton Gilbert                    
'Macro' Forces in Market Confound Stock Pickers WSJ                    
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
Gold’s milestone: Are some losing faith in paper money? G&M                    
Gold May Extend Gains on Wealth Protection, Weaker Dollar, Survey Shows Bloomberg                    
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
Hunt's Deathbed Confession Reveals JFK Killers Rense                    
JFK ASSASSINATION: E. Howard Hunt's Confession Before Its News                    

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





09-25-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

IRAN

ISREAL

KOREA

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

GREECE

 

 

SPAIN

Spain Under Pressure to Show `Hair Shirt' Budget as Yields Rise BL

Spain unveils ‘austere’ 2011 budget  FT

GERMANY

German Business Confidence Unexpectedly Increased in September BL

 

FRANCE

 

CANADA

Bubble or not, Canadian markets in for rude awakening G&M (Rosenberg)

 
By my calculations, every basis point of the Canadian economic recovery was the result of the boom in the housing sector. That goose is no longer laying any golden eggs.

UK

 

IRELAND

Ireland faces double dip, mulls restructuring of junior bank debt Pritchard


JAPAN

Residential land prices down for 19th straight year in Japan AP

BOJ expands fund supply, nears quantitative easing Reuters

 

USA

 

 

 

 

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

Shorting Bonds Will Be 'Trade of the Decade': Kass CNBC

The Bastard Child of The Mother of All Bubbles JimQ

 

So here we stand, two years after the worldwide financial system came within a few hours of imploding, and nothing has changed. Wall Street is still calling the shots. The political hacks that supposedly run this country have kneeled down before their insolvent Masters of the Universe. Bennie Bernanke has chosen to save his Wall Street masters and throw grandma under the bus. By keeping interest rates at zero, buying up trillions in toxic mortgages, and printing money as fast as his printing presses can operate, Bennie has birthed the bastard child of the mother of all bubbles. The chart below clearly shows the birth of this bastard. It is a distant cousin of the internet bubble bastard. Despite interest rates at or near all-time lows across the yield curve, money has poured into Treasury bonds. This makes no sense, as interest rates can’t go much lower. A small increase in rates will produce large losses for investors at these rates.

 

 
Only a fool would buy a US Ten Year Treasury bond today yielding 2.55%. Of course, only a fool would buy a 1,300 square foot rancher in Riverside, California for $800,000 with 0% down using an Option ARM in 2005 too. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t millions of fools willing to do so. Each “investment” will have the same result – huge losses

 

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II

Regulators seize 3 failing wholesale corporate credit unions USAT FDIC

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

August New Home Sales Second Slowest on Record AP PDF

Home sales on pace to finish year as bad as 2009 AP

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


Obama asks Wen for more action on yuan Reuters

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

 

The Real Economic Cost of Government Is Spending – So, What Do You Want to Cut? Kasriel

Throwing away freedom for outrageous promises Hernando Today

 

Budget Gap Means Extending Tax Cuts a Bad Idea, Greenspan Says BL

 
“Interest rates are down for a number of technical reasons, which I won't get into. But, assuredly they're not going to stay here...”



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

Louis Dreyfus and Olam in merger talks  FT

$15bn tie-up would create third largest agricultural trader

 

Food traders share global ambitions  FT

 

Singapore’s Olam  FT
The trio of Olam, Wilmar and Noble is challenging the leadership in agriculture of Louis Dreyfus, Illinois-based Archer Daniels Midland, New York-based Bunge and Minneapolis-based Cargill. The four, known because of their initials as the industry’s “ABCD”, dominate global flows of agricultural raw materials.

Olam remains associated with Kewalram Chanrai, the largest shareholder with 23 per cent, followed by management with 17 per cent. Temasek, the Singapore state investment agency, owns another 14 per cent plus convertible bonds worth a further 1.5 per cent following an equity injection last year of S$437.5m

The company remains under the leadership of the softly-spoken Mr Verghese, one of a number of prominent Indian business people in Singapore.

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 


BP's Shock Waves Taibbi

The real BP lesson: Oil is killing us USAT



   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------


Implications of the Financial Crisis for Economics Bernanke Speech

Bernanke defends economic models that missed crisis MW

Volcker Spares No One in Broad Critique  WSJ

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker scrapped a prepared speech he had planned to deliver at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on Thursday, and instead delivered a blistering, off-the-cuff critique leveled at nearly every corner of the financial system.

Standing at a lectern with his hands in his pockets, Volcker moved unsparingly from banks to regulators to business schools to the Fed to money-market funds during his luncheon speech.

He praised the new financial overhaul law, but said the system remained at risk because it is subject to future “judgments” of individual regulators, who he said would be relentlessly lobbied by banks and politicians to soften the rules.

“This is a plea for structural changes in markets and market regulation,” he said at one point.

Here are his views on a variety of topics.

1) Macroprudential regulation — “somehow those words grate on my ears.”

2) Banking — Investment banks became “trading machines instead of investment banks [leading to] encroachment on the territory of commercial banks, and commercial banks encroached on the territory of others in a way that couldn’t easily be managed by the old supervisory system.”

3) Financial system — “The financial system is broken. We can use that term in late 2008, and I think it’s fair to still use the term unfortunately. We know that parts of it are absolutely broken, like the mortgage market which only happens to be the most important part of our capital markets [and has] become a subsidiary of the U.S. government.”

4) Business schools — “We had all our best business schools in the United States pouring out financial engineers, every smart young mathematician and physicist said ‘I don’t want to be a civil engineer, a mechanical engineer. I’m a smart guy, I want to go to Wall Street.’ And then you know all the risks were going to be sliced and diced and [people thought] the market would be resilient and not face any crises. We took care of all that stuff, and I think that was the general philosophy that markets are efficient and self correcting and we don’t have to worry about them too much.

5) Central banks and the Fed — “Central banks became…maybe a little too infatuated with their own skills and authority because they found secrets to price stability…I think its fair to say there was a certain neglect of supervisory responsibilities, certainly not confined to the Federal Reserve, but including the Federal Reserve, I only say that because the Federal Reserve is the most important in my view.”

6) The recession — “It’s so difficult to get out of this recession because of the basic disequilibrium in the real economy.”

7) Council of regulators — “Potentially cumbersome.”

8) On judgment — “Let me suggest to you that relying on judgment all the time makes for a very heavy burden whether you are regulating an individual institution or whether you are regulating the whole market or whether you are deciding what might be disturbing or what might not be disturbing. It’s pretty tough and it’s subject to all kinds of political and institutional blockages as well.”

9) On procyclicality — “It’s the hardest thing as a regulator in my opinion…when things are really going well, the economy is going well, the market is not disturbed, but you see developments in an institution or in markets that is potentially destabilizing, doing something about it is extremely difficult. Because the answer of the people in the markets is, ‘what are you talking about? Things are going really well. We know more about banking and finance than you do, get out of my hair, if you don’t get out of my hair I’m going to write my congressman.’”

10) Risk management — “Markets that are prone to excesses in one direction or another are not simply managed under the assumption that we can assume that everybody follows a normal distribution curve. Normal distribution curves — if I would submit to you — do not exist in financial markets. Its not that they are fat tails, they don’t exist. I keep hearing about fat tails, and Jesus, it’s only supposed to occur every 100 years, and it appears every 10 years.”

11) Derivatives — “I’ve heard so many stories about how important” derivatives are but “there doesn’t seem to be much doubt that the creation of derivatives has far exceeded any pressing need for hedging.”

12) Money market funds — “Money market funds have encroached so much on the banking market. They are nothing, in my view, but a regulatory arbitrage. The purpose that they serve in handling payments and short term paper is a commercial banking function” but they don’t hold the capital or face the regulation of banks.

13) The Fed and Dodd-Frank — Volcker said it was a “miracle” that despite all the criticism aimed at the Fed the central bank “came out with enhanced regulatory authorities rather than reduced regulatory authorities.”


Former Fed Chief Volcker `Not Worried' About Deflation BL

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

 

PROOF! Global Governance 2025 Planned by US & EU Intelligence Agencies Document Obtained Thru FOIA  Before its News

 

 

You may read this September 2010 report, courtesy of our Freedom of Information Act, at cia.gov.

Since the bulk of what this report discusses apparently has to do with international cooperation, why then, did they not choose that apparently appropriate phrase, instead of “Global Governance?”

“Global Governance” – in case you need to recheck your eyes and mind.

Here is an interesting and self-conflicted disclaimer, from its “Introduction,” page 1:

The term “global governance” as used in this paper includes all the institutions, regimes, processes, partnerships, and networks that contribute to collective action and problem solving at the international level. This definition subsumes formal and informal arrangements as well as the role of nonstate actors in transnational settings. Regional cooperation may also be regarded as an element of global governance insofar as it contributes to broader efforts. Governance differs from government, which implies sovereign prerogatives and hierarchical authority. Global governance does not equate to world government, which would be virtually impossible for the foreseeable future, if ever.

Are you saying, under your breath, “‘Governance differs from government….  Global governance does not equate to world government….’  Who are they trying to kid?”

How can any set of people practice governance when there is no effort of government in effect? Clearly, they wish to establish dependable, and enforceable arrangements, coordinated and administered between nations, hence their admission to the word “governance,” even though they create the distinction without a difference, between that word and “government.”

It is a natural and logical fact that if “global governance” is coordinated effectively, it must be done through an coordinating entity of some kind.  But, we must not call that body any kind of “government” — is what they are saying.

And what is any difference again between the nouns-turned-adjectives, used in these terms?  How exactly does “globe” differ from “world,” o United States’ National Intelligence Council (NIC) and European Union’s Institute for Security Studies (EUISS)?  What color is the sky in your world, er, globe?

Read more     From a related story...

The other thing you  can count on is that the elite are steering the governments involved.

Nefarious orginizations funded by uber-elite like George Soros’s Center for American Progress are working tirelessly to promote this class rule form of Social Marxism disguised as Environmental Justice or Social Justice.  Soros funds his puppet projects through tools like Robert Johnson.  The Center For American Progress is a far left wing Marxist architectural framework building organization designed to make democracy look like a working political philosophy.



Read in full notalemming.wordpress.cohttp://www.gordontlong.com/2010/09/23/the-new-world-order-of-global-governance-its-not-just-for-conspiracy-theorist-anymore/

 

A Recovery That Looks Like Recession Comstock

 

Simple Planet: Confronting Our Complicity  Simple Planet

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

   

MARKET WARNINGS

 

S&P 500 heading for best month of decade

Investors hail S&P 500’s stealthly revival  FT

 

Investors Are Deaf to the Screams of Gold, Cotton Gilbert

 

'Macro' Forces in Market Confound Stock Pickers WSJ

 
Bianco: “Stock picking is a dead art form...Macro themes dominate the market now more than ever."

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

 

Gold’s milestone: Are some losing faith in paper money? G&M


Gold May Extend Gains on Wealth Protection, Weaker Dollar, Survey Shows BL

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

Hunt's Deathbed Confession Reveals JFK Killers  Rense

 

JFK ASSASSINATION: E. Howard Hunt's Confession  Before Its News

 

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

“The great enemy of the truth,” John F. Kennedy declared in a 1962 commencement address at Yale University, “is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived and dishonest – but the myth – persistent, persuasive and unrealistic.”



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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

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09-25-10

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TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

   

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.