Gordon T Long

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INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem

gave President Barrack Obama six months to roll-out his doomed Keynesian policies, twelve months to discover they were flawed and eighteen months to realize that the solution to America’s problems must lie within a different economic framework. I had hoped by the end of twenty-four months to see new policies closer to an Austrian economic philosophy emerge. I was wrong.

 

Though, even the Wall Street Journal recently featured an article on the re-emergence of the Austrian School of Economic philosophy, it would appear that President Obama’s administration still neither gets it, nor I am afraid ever will.

Key defections by his leading economic advisors, talk of the need for QE II and a Stimulus II, and a political collapse in public confidence suggests a growing awareness that Keynesian policies are not working, as many predicted they wouldn’t. Obama's exciting rhetoric of Hope and Change has left myself and the majority of recent polled Americans disillusioned and disappointed. What I see the administration failing to grasp is twofold:

 

I-America has a Structural problem, not a cyclical business cycle problem. Though the cyclical business cycle was greatly worsened by the financial crisis, I would argue that the structural problem facing the US is actually a contributor to what caused the financial crisis.

 

II- America has a Credit demand problem, not a Credit supply problem. It isn’t that the banks won’t lend, but rather that few can any longer afford or qualify (on any reasonably and historically sound basis) to borrow. READ MORE

   

 

PRESERVE & PROTECT: Mapping the Tipping Points

The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people are apparently willing to pay any price.  As a sailor it feels like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any eventuality. Are you prepared?

 

What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane? Unlike sailors the financial markets do not have the forecasting technology to protect it from such a possibility. Good sailors before today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial community.

 

Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly looming on the horizon.

Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971 the increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking. It has grown unchecked and inevitably became unhinged from world industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.  READ MORE


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

POSTS:  THURSDAY 09-16-10

Last Update: 09/16/2010 04:34 PM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Currency Intervention Madness Mish X                  
Massive Swiss Franc Intervention? BI X                  
Young Greeks Seek Options Elsewhere NYT X                  
Greeks Get Cheaper Ikea Shelves as Prices Drop in Recession Bloomberg X                  
Greece rules out possibility of default FT X                  
Property Developer- The ECB Is The Only Thing Stopping Spain From Becoming The Next Dubai BI X                  
Germany Asks US to Give up its IMF Veto FT X                  
French socialists freak out as Sarkozy raises the retirement age BI X                  
U.S. slowdown hits Canadian factories G&M X                  
Wilbur Ross, Carlyle to Buy Troubled Irish Bank CNBC X                  
Japan intervenes to weaken yen and warns of more Reuters X                  
Japan's 10-Year Bonds Surge Most in Two Years Bloomberg X                  
Production in U.S. Cooled in August as Automakers Scaled Back Bloomberg X                  
Import Prices in U.S. Rose 0.6% in August, More Than Forecast Bloomberg X                  
Manufacturing in New York Expanded at Slower Pace Bloomberg X                  
EU unveils crackdown on derivatives FT   X                
Pimco Makes $8.1 Billion Bet Against `Lost Decade' of Deflation Bloomberg     X              
New Yield Forecast: No bond market bubble Danske     X              
Bank regulators once bamboozled, now emboldened Pearlstein           X        
Bailed-Out Banks Finance 'Legalized Loan Shark' Payday Lenders, Says New Report Huffington           X        
Naked Short-Sellers, Derivatives Traders Face EU Restrictions Bloomberg           X        
Zombie Banks Have Us Right Where They Want Us- Jonathan Weil WSJ           X        
BASEL III                      
The other bits of Basel III Reuters           X        
                       
U.S. Home Prices Face 3-Year Drop as Inventory Surge Looms Bloomberg                 X  
Home loan demand drops as refinancing loses luster Reuters                 X  
Home Prices Just Dropped In Most States And 8 Million Foreclosures Are About To Hit The Market BI                 X  
Allure of Home Ownership Dims WSJ                 X  
10 Reasons To Buy a Home WSJ                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Robert Shiller- Public Anger Over Unemployment Is Growing And It Is Hitting Confidence BI   X                
Congress Seeks Fannie, Freddie Exit as Banks Eat Soured Loans Bloomberg     X              
China defends forex policy, hikes yuan MW             X      
China Said to Consider 15% Capital Ratio for Biggest Lenders Bloomberg             X      
China May Delay Rate Increase to 2011, Economists' Survey Shows Bloomberg             X      
Trade War Alert- US Makes WTO Complaint Against China, A Day After US Steelmakers Deliver Bad New BI             X      
REMAINING                      
Wheat Prices No Reason for Panic Asia Central                   31
                       
                       
BP OIL                      
Hayward admits ‘lack of rigour’ in gulf spill FT                    
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Outlook Clouds Fed Move WSJ                    
Hatzius Q&A On QE2 ZH                    
The Curse of Fiat Money Mises                    
Which Comes First: Inflation or the FOMC’s Funds Rate Target? FRBSL                    
Greenspan calls for tax hike Barr                    
Bankrupt, USA: Cities aren't too big to fail CNN                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Charlie Munger on US Economy: Pain Not Over CNBC                    
Henninger- It's the Spending, Stupid WSJ                    
FLASH CRASH                      
Here’s A Tip: The SEC Caused The Flash Crash CNBC                    
Crash of '87 Gave Birth to High-Frequency Trading. Here's How CNBC                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Volumes Down at the Real Casinos Too BeSpoke                    
Is The Dow Smashing Its Head Against A 70-Year Long Ceiling BI                    
Stocks Surge To Celebrate Unprecedented 19th Sequential Equity Outflow, $10 Billion In September Redemptions ZH                    
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
Llink to Pento post-mortem on King World News King                    
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





09-16-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

IRAN

ISREAL

KOREA

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

Currency Intervention Madness Mish

 

Massive Swiss Franc Intervention? BI

GREECE

Young Greeks Seek Options Elsewhere NYT


Greeks Get Cheaper Ikea Shelves as Prices Drop in Recession BL

Greece rules out possibility of default  FT

 

 

SPAIN

Property Developer- The ECB Is The Only Thing Stopping Spain From Becoming The Next Dubai  BI

 

GERMANY

Germany Asks US to Give up its IMF Veto   FT

FRANCE

French socialists freak out as Sarkozy raises the retirement age  BI

 

UK

 

CANADA

U.S. slowdown hits Canadian factories G&M

 

IRELAND

Wilbur Ross, Carlyle to Buy Troubled Irish Bank CNBC


JAPAN

Japan intervenes to weaken yen and warns of more Reuters


Japan's 10-Year Bonds Surge Most in Two Years BL


 “The effect from Japan's solo intervention won't last very long. We have to see how the U.S. and European monetary authorities would react” Daiwa

 

 

USA

 

 

Production in U.S. Cooled in August as Automakers Scaled Back BL FED


Import Prices in U.S. Rose 0.6% in August, More Than Forecast BL BLS


Manufacturing in New York Expanded at Slower Pace   BL  NYF

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

EU unveils crackdown on derivatives  FT

 

The rules being proposed by the Commission will need approval both from EU member states and the European parliament. The aim is to have them in force by mid to late 2012.

The proposals follow agreement by G20 leaders last year to standardise derivatives trading and move them on to exchanges or electronic trading platforms where appropriate. The proposals will closely align the EU with the new regime that is coming into force in the US.

The rules will require standard OTC derivatives to be processed through clearing houses – a move aimed at reducing systemic risk arising from a default of one party in an OTC deal. They will also require OTC contracts – the bilateral agreements between buyers and sellers – to be reported to “trade repositories” or data banks, and for this information to be available to regulators.

But Brussels also plans to make it more expensive for firms to deal in non-cleared contracts, by requiring them to hold more capital against these – although that measure will be introduced in separate legislation shortly.

The short-selling proposals suggest that investors must disclose significant net short positions to regulators once these amount to 0.2 per cent of the issued share capital of a company, and to the market at a higher 0.5 per cent threshold.

So-called “naked” short selling – where traders sell a security without owning it or borrowing it in expectation of buying it back at a cheaper level – will only be allowed in limited circumstances.

There will be a specific regime for telling regulators about significant net short positions in credit default swap positions related to EU sovereign debt issuers. The proposals also include powers to allow national regulators to restrict short selling in sovereign CDSs during periods of volatile trading

 

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

Pimco Makes $8.1 Billion Bet Against `Lost Decade' of Deflation BL El-Erian

 

New Yield Forecast: No bond market bubble Danske

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II

 

Bank regulators once bamboozled, now emboldened Pearlstein

 

Bailed-Out Banks Finance 'Legalized Loan Shark' Payday Lenders, Says New Report HP


Naked Short-Sellers, Derivatives Traders Face EU Restrictions BL

 

Zombie Banks Have Us Right Where They Want Us- Jonathan Weil  WSJ

 

The lords of finance still have us right where they want us.

 

BASEL III

 

The other bits of Basel III Reuters

 

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

U.S. Home Prices Face 3-Year Drop as Inventory Surge Looms BL

 

Home loan demand drops as refinancing loses luster Reuters

 

Home Prices Just Dropped In Most States And 8 Million Foreclosures Are About To Hit The Market BI

 

Allure of Home Ownership Dims  WSJ

 

10 Reasons To Buy a Home  WSJ

BEFORE AFTER

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


Robert Shiller- Public Anger Over Unemployment Is Growing And It Is Hitting Confidence  BI



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

Congress Seeks Fannie, Freddie Exit as Banks Eat Soured Loans BL


14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


China defends forex policy, hikes yuan MW

China Said to Consider 15% Capital Ratio for Biggest Lenders   BL

China May Delay Rate Increase to 2011, Economists' Survey Shows BL

Trade War Alert- US Makes WTO Complaint Against China, A Day After US Steelmakers Deliver Bad New BI

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

Wheat Prices No Reason for Panic Asia Sentinel

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 


Hayward admits ‘lack of rigour’ in gulf spill  FT



   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

Outlook Clouds Fed Move WSJ
Officials Disagree Over Threshold for Further Action to Boost Economy

 

 Hatzius Q&A On QE2  ZH
BL:  Announcing $1 trillion in purchases is like “putting your gun on the table and making it clear that you mean it” 

 

The Curse of Fiat Money Mises


Which Comes First: Inflation or the FOMC’s Funds Rate Target? FRBSL


Greenspan calls for tax hike Barr

Killing Keynesianism? WT
With government already so large, stimulus spending has little effect


Bankrupt, USA: Cities aren't too big to fail CNN

 


 

 GENERAL INTEREST

 

Charlie Munger on US Economy: Pain Not Over CNBC

 

Henninger- It's the Spending, Stupid  WSJ

 
The voters, are not "concerned" about Uncle Sam's spending floating toward the moon. They are enraged, furious, crazed and desperate. Beneath all the economic turbulence in the land is anxiety that's been building for years as public spending has continued to grow. What was a chronic "concern" has exploded this year into a broad public movement—in Washington, California, New York, New Jersey and indeed across Europe. This isn't "concern," Mr. President. It's a crisis.

Look at the astonishing numbers in the Rasmussen poll released last week. Nearly seven in 10 respondents (68%) want a smaller government, lower taxes and fewer services. The party breakdown: GOP, 88%; Democrats, 44%; and Other, 74%. In short, the independent voters who decide national elections have moved into the anti-spending column. I don't think they'll leave any time soon.

The most important and startling number in American politics today is Congress's approval rating: 23%.

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

Here’s A Tip: The SEC Caused The Flash Crash CNBC


Crash of '87 Gave Birth to High-Frequency Trading. Here's How CNBC

 

MARKET WARNINGS

 

Volumes Down at the Real Casinos Too BeSpoke

 

Is The Dow Smashing Its Head Against A 70-Year Long Ceiling  BI

 

Stocks Surge To Celebrate Unprecedented 19th Sequential Equity Outflow, $10 Billion In September Redemptions  ZH

It is beyond a joke now: ICI's latest data discloses that in the week ended September 8, domestic funds saw outflows of $2.2 billion, following last week's massive $7.7 billion. And yes, ETFs experienced outflows as well. So far September has experienced nearly $10 billion in outflows, even as the market has ramped by over 6%. Who is buying this shit? Just ask The New York Fed and Citadel: they may have a few pointers (wink wink). This is the 19th sequential outflow from US stocks, and amounts to $65 billion in redemptions for the year. With the market pretty much unchanged YTD, it means that mutual funds can not resort to capital appreciation as a substitute to outflows, and most are on their last breath (Janus: blink twice if you are still alive please). The kicker: the S&P is at the level it was when the outflows began back during the flash crash. If that doesn't restore all your confidence that Uncle Sam will be so good at managing the market (just like he has done with everything else), nothing else will. Throw in a little HFT, a little subpennying, a little Flash trading, a little DMA trading, a little quote stuffing, a little hedge fund clubbing, a little specialist front running, a little daily flash crash in big caps like Nucor Steel, and you can see why next week we will most certainly have our first inflow in 20 weeks. Or not. It doesn't matter. Nobody that is made of carbon, or who doesn't already have direct access to the Fed for zero cost funding, is trading stocks anymore. 

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

Llink to Pento post-mortem on King World News

 

Zero Hedge Commentary on CNBC Interview: For some, this week's incident on CNBC where Michael Pento was kicked off CNBC for daring to question the basic assumption that his host Erin Burnett presented as fact, was perplexing (to others, who are well aware of the modus operandi of the TV station is, not so much). In a follow up interview that was uninterrupted by commercial breaks and octoboxes, with King World News, Michael Pento gives a post-mortem of just what transpired: "I looked at it 4 times and I don't when I went off the rails, I thought it was a bit unwarranted. All I was doing was being very passionate about an issue I feel very strongly about." The core of the disagreement of course, is the underlying assumption which CNBC takes as gospel, which is that no matter what, interest rates will not, are not allowed to rise (which together with a failed treasury auction, will be the key indicators of the "beginning of the end"). And Pento is completely right to question this as the underlying "factual basis" of any rhetorical question: "We as Americans have no right to believe that interest rates on the 10 year, which are far below their historic 49 year average, 7.31%, are now on 2.7%, so the onus is not on me that interest rates will rise. The onus is on other people to convince me and the investing public that the US bond market will always be in a perpetual bubble that will never burst. And if you look at the data, it shows that this can not be a sustainable situation." Pento then goes on to highlight all the facts that certainly make his case, but that ultimately all collapse into one thing: that the Fed will be able to continue to control, and frankly, manipulate the rate market for perpetuity. This is a flawed assumption and sooner or later Ben Bernanke will lose control as with every system which is in disequilibrium, the snapback to a sustainable balance will occur, and the longer it is kept away from its natural state, the more violent the snapback will be.

One point that Pento discusses that bears further attention, is his argument that governmental investment in the economy should decline and the private sector should be encouraged to pick up the slack. Of course, with the Balance of Payments equation which is now on the forefront of public attention, this means that unless the Current Account goes positive, the private sector is unlikely to be able to pick up the slack from a collapse in endless governmental stimulus (and thus constant debt creation). Which goes to the crux of the Keynesian-Austrian debate. Many would say here that instead of having funded the government apparatus, which as even Mort Zuckerman points out is beyond unwieldy and has grown excessively, the government should have instead have focused on making the US competitive from an international trade standpoint, a topic even Warren Buffett lamented in his non-corrupt days, when he was actually a voice of reason, and not just unbridled, government captured greed. Alas, that would mean a total break from the current Chinese trade surplus hegemony and realigning the US economy in a way that would result in a dramatic shock to millions of people who realize they are simply uncompetitive in the global picture (and thus redundant in the job market) but which would serve as another much needed reset to get America off on a way to long-lost prosperity with an attempt to reincarnate the American manufacturing sector while gradually phasing out the service sector (and especially its "financial innovation" component) . Yet as Gorgon T. Long also pointed out a few days ago, America is now dead set on repeating the destructive Keynesian mistakes of the past, and will continue to fund a broken model until one day, as Michael Pento all too correctly points out, it all snaps, and the "shocking" death of Keynesianism, as described a month ago by Eric Sprott, catches all so many completely unaware.

Of course to explain all this to Erin Burnett, who still believes that the government has done a great job with the "fastest" recovery in the past 20 years, which would be correct if one could eliminate those little pesky things known as "facts", is beyond folly. All those who are invited to CNBC, and dare to explain the truth: you have been warned.

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

“The great enemy of the truth,” John F. Kennedy declared in a 1962 commencement address at Yale University, “is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived and dishonest – but the myth – persistent, persuasive and unrealistic.”


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

THURSDAY

09-16-10

SEPTEMBER
S M T W T F S
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30    

ARCHIVAL

 

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WE HAVE IT ANALYZED & INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST RESEARCH PAPERS!

 

 

ACCEPTING PRE-ORDERS

 

 

 




 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

   

 

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