Gordon T Long

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INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem

gave President Barrack Obama six months to roll-out his doomed Keynesian policies, twelve months to discover they were flawed and eighteen months to realize that the solution to America’s problems must lie within a different economic framework. I had hoped by the end of twenty-four months to see new policies closer to an Austrian economic philosophy emerge. I was wrong.

 

Though, even the Wall Street Journal recently featured an article on the re-emergence of the Austrian School of Economic philosophy, it would appear that President Obama’s administration still neither gets it, nor I am afraid ever will.

Key defections by his leading economic advisors, talk of the need for QE II and a Stimulus II, and a political collapse in public confidence suggests a growing awareness that Keynesian policies are not working, as many predicted they wouldn’t. Obama's exciting rhetoric of Hope and Change has left myself and the majority of recent polled Americans disillusioned and disappointed. What I see the administration failing to grasp is twofold:

 

I-America has a Structural problem, not a cyclical business cycle problem. Though the cyclical business cycle was greatly worsened by the financial crisis, I would argue that the structural problem facing the US is actually a contributor to what caused the financial crisis.

 

II- America has a Credit demand problem, not a Credit supply problem. It isn’t that the banks won’t lend, but rather that few can any longer afford or qualify (on any reasonably and historically sound basis) to borrow. READ MORE

   

 

PRESERVE & PROTECT: Mapping the Tipping Points

The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people are apparently willing to pay any price.  As a sailor it feels like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any eventuality. Are you prepared?

 

What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane? Unlike sailors the financial markets do not have the forecasting technology to protect it from such a possibility. Good sailors before today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial community.

 

Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly looming on the horizon.

Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971 the increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking. It has grown unchecked and inevitably became unhinged from world industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.  READ MORE


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

POSTS:  MONDAY 09-13-10

Last Update: 09/13/2010 08:45 PM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Euro Drops Against Most Peers as Region's Sovereign Debt Woes Resurface Bloomberg X                  
Americans Fear ‘Double Dip’ Recession & European Financial Problems Strategy One Insight X                  
Governor Chris Christie on Who's to Blame for Teacher Layoffs Mish       X            
US money supply plunges at 1930s pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus Prichard           X        
A Capital Mistake NYT           X        
BASEL III                      
U.S. Banking Agencies Express Support for Basel Agreement Federal Reserve           X        
Basel III Summary, And The Fed's Endorsement of 20x+ Leverage ZH           X        
Housing Doesn’t Need a Crash. It Needs Bold Ideas. NYT                 X  
Vacancies Strain White House’s Goals for Economy NYT                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Why Half Of The Corporations In America Don't Care About The Recovery Reich   X                
China Industrial Output Tops Forecast as `Robust' Demand Aids World Growth Bloomberg             X      
China August New Lending, Money Supply Growth Rebounds, Exceeding Forecast Bloomberg             X      
The Last Half Mauldin                 X  
Congress must realise America is on the verge of a fresh economic crisis Independ.                 X  
REMAINING                      
                       
                       
BP OIL                      
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Why The Real Consumer Debt Burden Will Force The Fed To Accelerate Its Monetary Intervention  ZH ZH                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Why The Real Consumer Debt Burden Will Push The US Economy Lower ZH                    
FLASH CRASH                      
                       
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Retail Investors Have Suddenly Become Massively More Bullish                      
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
Llink to Pento post-mortem on King World News King World                    
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge






09-13-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

IRAN

ISREAL

KOREA

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

Euro Drops Against Most Peers as Region's Sovereign Debt Woes Resurface BL

 

GREECE

 

SPAIN

 

GERMANY

 

FRANCE

 

UK

 

IRELAND


JAPAN

 

 

 

USA

 

 

Americans Fear ‘Double Dip’ Recession & European Financial Problems  Strategy One Insight
“Americans are expecting to take a double whammy on the chin soon; Europe’s debt crisis and a double dip recession. The tension is clearly palatable. Americans are worried and scared about what’s coming next and that’s on top of the near universal recognition that we are mired in a pretty deep recession already.

Bradley Honan, Vice President of StrategyOne                 

StrategyOne conducted 1,050 online interviews among a representative sampling of Americans between June 25 and 27, 2010.

Perceptions of the Current Economy:

There is near universal agreement (92%) that the US is still in a recession, and a strong majority, 79%, disagree with experts’ characterization that the recession is over. 

Additionally, more than half of the public (57%) believes the U.S. economy is either in a deep recession (48%) or in a 1930s style economic depression (9%). Only 4% say the economy is doing fine and 39% say the economy is in a “mild recession”. 

Impact of the Recession on Americans:

Significant numbers of Americans have experienced hardship as a result of the recession. 

  • o 42% say that they or their spouse has had wages or salary reduced
  • o 34% say they or their spouse lost their job or has been laid off
  • o 33% have taken on more hours or another job to try and make ends meet
  • o 28% dipped into a planned retirement account like an IRA or 401K because they needed the money
  • o 14% say they have been forced to sell or liquidate a major asset like their car or home
  • o 9% have had their house foreclosed on
  • o 8% had their child delay college (or graduate school) or drop out to save money
  • o In terms of their own personal finances, 2 in 10 expect say they will recover by the end of 2011 (20%), 3 in 10 say after the end of 2011 (27%), and a quarter say their personal finances won’t ever fully recover (24%).
  •  

     

    2- EU BANKING CRISIS

       

     

    3- BOND BUBBLE

     

     

    4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

     

    Governor Chris Christie on Who's to Blame for Teacher Layoffs  Mish

     
    One would think that New Jersey teachers might have the ability to learn. However, judging from repeated powder puff softball questions by teachers that governor Chris Christie can hit out of the ballpark, I have to wonder. Please consider this creampuff question and Christie's answer. Governor Chris Christie was straight, direct, and correct in his response to a union teacher in New Jersey who complains about teacher layoffs. Clearly the teacher's union is to blame.  Moreover, it is the same in every state. How teachers cannot see this is a wonder to behold.

     

     

     


    5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

     


    6-BANKING CRISIS II

     

    US money supply plunges at 1930s pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus   Ambrose Evans-Prichard

     

     

     

    A Capital Mistake NYT

     

     

     

    BASELL III




    U.S. Banking Agencies Express Support for Basel Agreement Federal Reserve

    Basel III Summary, And The Fed's Endorsement of 20x+ Leverage  ZH
    Earlier today, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision committee released Basel III guidelines, which are expected to have a material impact on curbing bank risk appetite... when they are fully implemented in July of 2019. Luckily by then the last thing on people's minds will be whose bank's Tier 1 capital (which includes such intangible "capital" items as mortgage servicing rights and preferred stock) was being misrepresented for the past 9 years, as real cap ratios are discovered to have had a decimal comma following the zero. In the meantime, here is the summary of the proposed changes to bank capitalization requirements, which apparently were so "stringent" that the Fed issued a Sunday afternoon press release patting itself, and the entire financial system on the back, for pulling off another multi-trillion toxic debt David Copperfield disappearing act. So for the next several years, banks will need to demonstrate a stringent 4.5% Common Equity cap ratio, in other, will be allowed leverage over 20x. And this is the "stringent requirement" that has forced Deutsche Bank to sell over $12 billion in new stock to raise capital. Furthermore, the coincident take over of Post Bank will surely allow DB to terminally confuse its investors as to what its final pro forma numbers are supposed to represent, and, more importantly, what the unadjusted actuals really are... Surely this example of just how woefully undercapitalized European banks are (consider the DB action a stark refutation of the "all is clear" statement proffered by the Stress Test farce from July) will be enough to get the EURUSD back to 1.30 overnight.

    Basel III Sumary terms (courtesy of BiiiCPA)

    A. Tier 1 Capital

    A1. BASEL II:

    Tier 1 capital ratio = 4%
    Core Tier 1 capital ratio = 2%

    The difference between the total capital requirement of 8.0% and the Tier 1 requirement can be met with Tier 2 capital.

    A2. BASEL III:
    Tier 1 Capital Ratio = 6%

    Core Tier 1 Capital Ratio (Common Equity after deductions) = 4.5%

    Core Tier 1 Capital Ratio (Common Equity after deductions) before 2013 = 2%, 1st January 2013 = 3.5%, 1st January 2014 = 4%, 1st January 2015 = 4.5%

    The difference between the total capital requirement of 8.0% and the Tier 1 requirement can be met with Tier 2 capital.

    B. Capital Conservation Buffer

    B1. BASEL II:
    There is no capital conservation buffer.

    B2. BASEL III:
    Banks will be required to hold a capital conservation buffer of 2.5% to withstand future periods of stress bringing the total common equity requirements to 7%.

    Capital Conservation Buffer of 2.5 percent, on top of Tier 1 capital, will be met with common equity, after the application of deductions.

    Capital Conservation Buffer before 2016 = 0%, 1st January 2016 = 0.625%, 1st January 2017 = 1.25%, 1st January 2018 = 1.875%, 1st January 2019 = 2.5%

    The purpose of the conservation buffer is to ensure that banks maintain a buffer of capital that can be used to absorb losses during periods of financial and economic stress. While banks are allowed to draw on the buffer during such periods of stress, the closer their regulatory capital ratios approach the minimum requirement, the greater the constraints on earnings distributions.

    C. Countercyclical Capital Buffer

    C1. BASEL II:
    There is no Countercyclical Capital Buffer

    C2. BASEL III:
    A countercyclical buffer within a range of 0% – 2.5% of common equity or other fully loss absorbing capital will be implemented according to national circumstances.

    Banks that have a capital ratio that is less than 2.5%, will face restrictions on payouts of dividends, share buybacks and bonuses.
    The buffer will be phased in from January 2016 and will be fully effective in January 2019.

    Countercyclical Capital Buffer before 2016 = 0%, 1st January 2016 = 0.625%, 1st January 2017 = 1.25%, 1st January 2018 = 1.875%, 1st January 2019 = 2.5%
     

    D. Capital for Systemically Important Banks only

    D1. BASEL II:
    There is no Capital for Systemically Important Banks

    D2. BASEL III:
    Systemically important banks should have loss absorbing capacity beyond the standards announced today and work continues on this issue in the Financial Stability Board and relevant Basel Committee work streams.

    The Basel Committee and the FSB are developing a well integrated approach to systemically important financial institutions which could include combinations of capital surcharges, contingent capital and bail-in debt.
     
    Total Regulatory Capital Ratio = [Tier 1 Capital Ratio] + [Capital Conservation Buffer] + [Countercyclical Capital Buffer] + [Capital for Systemically Important Banks]

     

     

     

     

    7- RISK REVERSAL

     

     

    8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

     

     

    9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

     

    Housing Doesn’t Need a Crash. It Needs Bold Ideas. NYT (Morgenson)

     

    Vacancies Strain White House’s Goals for Economy NYT

     

    10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

     

     

    11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



    12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


    Why Half Of The Corporations In America Don't Care About The Recovery  Reich
    Large American corporations are going global as fast as they can. That’s good for their shareholders. But in a Washington ever more susceptible to their money and influence, it’s not necessarily good for American workers.  



    13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

     

     

    14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

     

     

    Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge poses an interesting question:

    QUESTION: What will happen to the tax shield that interest payments provide?

    Assume a scenario where a company with $X in debt manages to refiance all of it at near-zero interest rates. This will simply make pretax net income jump substantially, and provide for a much greater tax provision owed to the government. As everyone is aware, the number one prerogative before CFOs and corporate strategists, is how to minimize tax payments, which, in our opinion, means that soon companies, even Investment Grade, will lever over and above the level of debt suitable for their business model, with dividend recap deals coming down the line, all in the pursuit of recapturing a debt interest-based tax shield. After all, a company (and most definitely its Board of Directors) would certainly prefer to pay a dividend to its shareholders, than to give away 40% of its profits to the government, even if this means a sudden and abrupt deterioration of debt ratios across levered corporate America. And once interest rates do pick up, and the next refi/maturity wave hits in 5-7 years, then it will be really game over. But that is a topic for another day. (We are also confident that the tax code's Section 382 NOL Limitations will also soon have to be adjusted to facilitate the M&A boom which everyone expects yet never happen, as there are thousands of companies with huge NOL "assets" that could be acquired if Sec. 382 were to be changed... and it will be).

     

     

    17- CHINA BUBBLE


    China Industrial Output Tops Forecast as `Robust' Demand Aids World Growth BL

    China August New Lending, Money Supply Growth Rebounds, Exceeding Forecast BL

    19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

     

    The Last Half Mauldin

     

    Congress must realise America is on the verge of a fresh economic crisis Inde

     



     


    OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

     

     

    24-RETAIL SALES

     

     

    26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

     

     

    31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

     

     

    32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

     




    BP - British Petroleum

    SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

    ------------

     






       

    CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

    ------------

     

    Why The Real Consumer Debt Burden Will Force The Fed To Accelerate Its Monetary Intervention  ZH

     

    Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs conclusion:
    The still-high ratios of debt and debt service to disposable income suggest that the household sector and the private sector more broadly will need to continue running financial surpluses in coming years. Unless fiscal and monetary policy provide a strong counterweight, this is likely to imply only sluggish growth, with risks tilted to the downside.
    As more and more pundits realize that looking at debt burdens in nominal terms is erroneous, and that one has to apply deflation expectations to projections of real debt burdens, look for the feedback loop of lack of confidence in the economy to become ever more acute, as consumers further retrench in the saving mode so very abhorred by the Fed. And as more and more money finds its way to the mattress and precious metals, look for some incendiary decisions out of the government that seek nothing less than to devalue the dollar directly.

    The far greater implication is that the Fed continues to be stuck with no recourse of how to fix the system in the long-run, once the toxic spiral of deflationary deleveraging accelerates. And yes, the only option will soon be the nuclear one, which is QE on top of QE on top of QE, all with the hope of spurring inflation, yet leading to the unfortunate outcome of loss in the US reserve currency.


     

     GENERAL INTEREST

     

    Why The Real Consumer Debt Burden Will Push The US Economy Lower  ZH
    While the debt/income ratio shown in Exhibit 1 is hardly the end of the story, we believe that Exhibit 2 leaves out an important factor, namely that debt service is defined in nominal rather than real terms. The calculation does not take into account the rate at which inflation erodes the real value of household debt over time. This erosion will confer a bigger benefit on indebted households in a high-inflation environment such as the early 1980s than in a low inflation environment such as now.

     

    FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

     

     

    MARKET WARNINGS


    Retail Investors Have Suddenly Become Massively More Bullish  BI

    Retail investor has whip-sawed from substantially pessimistic to substantially optimistic in the course of just a few weeks according to a survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).

    Trader's Narrative: This level of overall bullishness is the highest since late April 2010 and the highest percentage of bulls since mid April, just as the market made an important top. The nominal level of bullishness isn’t the only thing that concerns me. It is also the fact that retail investors have a very short attention span and are willing to forgive and forget at the drop of a hat. Until we see true capitulation (with continuing reluctance to jump aboard an ensuing rally) it is difficult to see a way out of this choppy malaise.

     

    In my view the AAII survey isn't very robust given how often it fluctuates between extremes, but perhaps says something relevant for short-term trading. Note that the survey simply asks people whether they are bullish or bearish on the market for the next six months, which probably explains its volatility. Generally, I much prefer fund flow data, such as that from the Investment Company Institute, since it shows not what people say, but what they do. Still, what's nice about the AAII survey is that it comes out quickly and often.

     

    MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

     

     

    AUDIO / VIDEO

     

    Llink to Pento post-mortem on King World News

     

    Zero Hedge Commentary on CNBC Interview: For some, this week's incident on CNBC where Michael Pento was kicked off CNBC for daring to question the basic assumption that his host Erin Burnett presented as fact, was perplexing (to others, who are well aware of the modus operandi of the TV station is, not so much). In a follow up interview that was uninterrupted by commercial breaks and octoboxes, with King World News, Michael Pento gives a post-mortem of just what transpired: "I looked at it 4 times and I don't when I went off the rails, I thought it was a bit unwarranted. All I was doing was being very passionate about an issue I feel very strongly about." The core of the disagreement of course, is the underlying assumption which CNBC takes as gospel, which is that no matter what, interest rates will not, are not allowed to rise (which together with a failed treasury auction, will be the key indicators of the "beginning of the end"). And Pento is completely right to question this as the underlying "factual basis" of any rhetorical question: "We as Americans have no right to believe that interest rates on the 10 year, which are far below their historic 49 year average, 7.31%, are now on 2.7%, so the onus is not on me that interest rates will rise. The onus is on other people to convince me and the investing public that the US bond market will always be in a perpetual bubble that will never burst. And if you look at the data, it shows that this can not be a sustainable situation." Pento then goes on to highlight all the facts that certainly make his case, but that ultimately all collapse into one thing: that the Fed will be able to continue to control, and frankly, manipulate the rate market for perpetuity. This is a flawed assumption and sooner or later Ben Bernanke will lose control as with every system which is in disequilibrium, the snapback to a sustainable balance will occur, and the longer it is kept away from its natural state, the more violent the snapback will be.

    One point that Pento discusses that bears further attention, is his argument that governmental investment in the economy should decline and the private sector should be encouraged to pick up the slack. Of course, with the Balance of Payments equation which is now on the forefront of public attention, this means that unless the Current Account goes positive, the private sector is unlikely to be able to pick up the slack from a collapse in endless governmental stimulus (and thus constant debt creation). Which goes to the crux of the Keynesian-Austrian debate. Many would say here that instead of having funded the government apparatus, which as even Mort Zuckerman points out is beyond unwieldy and has grown excessively, the government should have instead have focused on making the US competitive from an international trade standpoint, a topic even Warren Buffett lamented in his non-corrupt days, when he was actually a voice of reason, and not just unbridled, government captured greed. Alas, that would mean a total break from the current Chinese trade surplus hegemony and realigning the US economy in a way that would result in a dramatic shock to millions of people who realize they are simply uncompetitive in the global picture (and thus redundant in the job market) but which would serve as another much needed reset to get America off on a way to long-lost prosperity with an attempt to reincarnate the American manufacturing sector while gradually phasing out the service sector (and especially its "financial innovation" component) . Yet as Gorgon T. Long also pointed out a few days ago, America is now dead set on repeating the destructive Keynesian mistakes of the past, and will continue to fund a broken model until one day, as Michael Pento all too correctly points out, it all snaps, and the "shocking" death of Keynesianism, as described a month ago by Eric Sprott, catches all so many completely unaware.

    Of course to explain all this to Erin Burnett, who still believes that the government has done a great job with the "fastest" recovery in the past 20 years, which would be correct if one could eliminate those little pesky things known as "facts", is beyond folly. All those who are invited to CNBC, and dare to explain the truth: you have been warned.

     

     

    QUOTE OF THE WEEK

     

    To paraphrase Oscar Wilde

    Investors know the price of everything but the value of nothing.


    Author Unknown

    In therapy, you have to accept a mistake to move on.  At times, this realization will be painful but in the end it is better for you.  Right now Wall Street is in complete denial and trying to pretend all is well.  Their profits are up but all that is happening is a wealth transfer from taxpayers to this unproductive group.


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    Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

     

    © Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

     

             

    TODAY'S NEWS

    MONDAY

    09-13-10

    SEPTEMBER
    S M T W T F S
          1 2 3 4
    5 6 7 8 9 10 11
    12 13 14 15 16 17 18
    19 20 21 22 23 24 25
    26 27 28 29 30    

    ARCHIVAL

     

    READING THE RIGHT BOOKS?  NO TIME?

     

    WE HAVE IT ANALYZED & INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST RESEARCH PAPERS!

     

     

    ACCEPTING PRE-ORDERS

     

     

     




     

             

    TIPPING POINTS

    1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

    2-EU BANKING CRISIS
    3-BOND BUBBLE

    4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

    5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
    6-BANKING CRISIS II
    7-RISK REVERSAL

    8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

    9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
    10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
    11-PENSION CRISIS

    12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

    13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
    14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
     

    15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

    16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
    17-CHINA BUBBLE
    18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
    19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
    20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
    21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
    22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
    23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
    24-RETAIL SALES
    25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
    26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
    27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
    28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
    29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
    30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
    31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
    32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
    33-PANDEMIC
    34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
    35-TERRORIST EVENT
    36-NATURAL DISASTER

     


     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

     

     

       

     

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