Gordon T Long

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INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem

gave President Barrack Obama six months to roll-out his doomed Keynesian policies, twelve months to discover they were flawed and eighteen months to realize that the solution to America’s problems must lie within a different economic framework. I had hoped by the end of twenty-four months to see new policies closer to an Austrian economic philosophy emerge. I was wrong.

 

Though, even the Wall Street Journal recently featured an article on the re-emergence of the Austrian School of Economic philosophy, it would appear that President Obama’s administration still neither gets it, nor I am afraid ever will.

Key defections by his leading economic advisors, talk of the need for QE II and a Stimulus II, and a political collapse in public confidence suggests a growing awareness that Keynesian policies are not working, as many predicted they wouldn’t. Obama's exciting rhetoric of Hope and Change has left myself and the majority of recent polled Americans disillusioned and disappointed. What I see the administration failing to grasp is twofold:

 

I-America has a Structural problem, not a cyclical business cycle problem. Though the cyclical business cycle was greatly worsened by the financial crisis, I would argue that the structural problem facing the US is actually a contributor to what caused the financial crisis.

 

II- America has a Credit demand problem, not a Credit supply problem. It isn’t that the banks won’t lend, but rather that few can any longer afford or qualify (on any reasonably and historically sound basis) to borrow. READ MORE

   

 

PRESERVE & PROTECT: Mapping the Tipping Points

The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people are apparently willing to pay any price.  As a sailor it feels like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any eventuality. Are you prepared?

 

What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane? Unlike sailors the financial markets do not have the forecasting technology to protect it from such a possibility. Good sailors before today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial community.

 

Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly looming on the horizon.

Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971 the increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking. It has grown unchecked and inevitably became unhinged from world industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.  READ MORE


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

POSTS:  WEEKEND 09-11-10

Last Update: 09/12/2010 05:49 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Global Scenarios: On a knife's edge  Danske                   
Richard Russell - Graveyard of Fiat Money  King World                   
Big banks ponder a move out of London  FT                   
Banks and politics- Commanding heights  FT                   
Japan Prepping US and Europe for Intervention on Yen  FT                   
Dubai World Says It's Close to Agreement on Debt  NYT                   
Wholesale inventories rise 1.3 percent in July  USA Today                   
Goldman's Roadmap Of The Progressive Economic Deterioration  ZH                     
Trichet Says Will `Take Time' to Wean Banks Off ECB Emergency Liquidity  Bloomberg                   
Deutsche Bank fires first shot in rush for capital  Reuters                   
El-Erian Says Bond Inflows Too Much of Good Thing  Bloomberg                   
Where have all the direct bids gone?  FT Alphav.                   
BASELL III                       
Tough Bank Rules Coming  WSJ                   
Why New Bank Capital Rules Could Make Things Worse  CNBC                   
German Push to Delay Basel Capital Rules Meets U.S. Opposition  Bloomberg                   
Bank investors get the jitters over Basel III  FT                   
One In Five Hotel-Backed Loans Is Now Delinquent  ZH                   
Fixing America’s Broken Housing Market  Stiglitz                   
Is this your grandfather’s mortgage crisis? Lessons from the 1930s VOX                 X  
Why You Should Blame Your Grandparents For The Mortgage Crisis BI                 X  
Here's Why A 9% Fall In Property Prices Is Coming In 2010 BI                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
U.S. Corporate Bonds: Default Rate Downtrend Nearly Over? BCAR       X            
SEC Will Weigh Rules Aimed at Preventing Companies From Concealing Debt Bloomberg        X            
Congress Yuan Action May Spark China Treasuries Sale, Roach Says Bloomberg              X      
Yuan Completes Biggest Weekly Gain Since June on U.S. Pressure Bloomberg              X      
China's trade surplus narrows sharply Dow Jones             X      
Empty Flats Spell Trouble Xie             X      
The Full List Of How Obama Spent $792 Billion On Fiscal Stimulus BI X
                       
REMAINING                      
Sowing Seeds of Fear WSJ                   31
                       
BP OIL                      
BP delays Q3 results due to oil spill complexities Reuters                    
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Bernanke conundrum is Obama’s problem Reuters                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
The Significance of Consumer Deleveraging Comstock                    
Debt, financial crisis hurt U.S. competitiveness Wash Post                    
Nancy Pelosi heads to Canada to shut down America's next big oil source BI                    
Look How Much Poorer We Are Than Three Years Ago BI                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Why Nobody Trades During Regular Hours Any More (And How Prop Funds Just Stop Trading When Volatility Spikes) ZH                    
The Death of Equities Charlie Fell                    
Zimmermann: ‘Tracking every turn that occured in 1930” CNBC                    
Rumors About The Demise Of US Equity Culture, Premature Trader's Nar                    
No Bull: The Public Won't Come to Market Barron's                    
Whitney Tilson- "We've Never Had More Conviction" In A Short BI                    
 Liquidnet Lays Off 12% Of Workforce As Plunge In Stock Trading Volumes Now Causing Widespread Pain ZH                    
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
IMF Resumes Direct Gold Dumping, Sells 10 Tons To Bangladesh ZH                    
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





09-11-10

 

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

GLOBAL MACRO

 

Global Scenarios: On a knife's edge Danske


Richard Russell - Graveyard of Fiat Money King World

 

UK

Big banks ponder a move out of London  FT

Groups may shift their headquarters, if regulation is tightened

Banks and politics- Commanding heights  FT

ig financial groups are again appearing to lord it over governments


JAPAN

Japan Prepping US and Europe for Intervention on Yen FT

DUBAI

Dubai World Says It's Close to Agreement on Debt NYT

 

USA

 

 

Wholesale inventories rise 1.3 percent in July AP PDF

In the monthly CMBS Market Trends update from Fitch we read that the hotel delinquency rate has just passed the psychological 20% delinquency threshold for the first time. As of August, 20.80% of all hotel-backed loans is in some stage of delinquency (up from 18.64% in July): that means that one in five (and rising) hotel-backed loans will likely never be repaid and proceed to liquidation. These and such are the ways, when underlying assets refuse to generate enough cash flow to satisfy interest requirements, let along create equity value... Which should explain why publicly-traded REITs are trading at near record highs.  

Goldman's Roadmap Of The Progressive Economic Deterioration  ZH

Click to Enlarge

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

Trichet Says Will `Take Time' to Wean Banks Off ECB Emergency Liquidity BL

Deutsche Bank fires first shot in rush for capital Reuters
 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

El-Erian Says Bond Inflows Too Much of Good Thing BL

 

Where have all the direct bids gone? FTA
Thursday’s US 30-year Treasury auction proved more telling than might have been expected.As Reuters reported (our emphasis):
NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) – An auction of $13 billion of reopened 30-year bonds met with comparatively soft demand on Thursday, rounding out this week’s sales of $67 billion of U.S. government coupon-bearing securities.

The auction “tailed,” with a high yield of 3.82 percent — above where the comparable securities were trading on the open market and indicating bidders moved aggressively to cheapen the bonds going into the sale.

Primary dealers, the large banks and investment firms that do business directly with the Federal Reserve, also had to take home about 56 percent of the paper, which is the highest share since October 2009. Direct bidders took 8.3 percent, which was the lowest since January.

Unsurprisingly, long-term yields sold off on the lacklustre demand for the auction:

And what was really interesting was the low level of direct bids — those struck by non-primary dealers bidding on their own accounts, i.e. institutional investors like hedge funds or bond funds — which averaged 8 per cent versus a 22 per cent average.

What’s worse, as Reuters’ IFR Markets points out, it’s likely that the 8 per cent represented bids from aspiring primary dealers anyway, meaning the Street probably ended up swallowing as much as 64 per cent of the auction:

Oh what a difference a day, or better said an auction makes as treasuries seemed to lose their luster one minute after the $13 bln 30-year auction deadline.

Indeed the Direct bid, the bulk of which is generally real money investment funds, absolutely plummeted from an average of 22% to just over 8% while Indirects only were able to muster an average 36% take-down.

Even worse the 8.3% Directs was likely spot on the average take for aspiring dealers (average about $1.2 bln), thus the Street swallowed almost 64% of this auction (vs closer to an average of 53% when adding in aspiring dealers).

The rather dismal result means that the last six treasury coupon auctions (2s,5s,7s plus 3s,10s and 30s) are now all underwater and that more than a few on the Street are looking for a chair lest the rally music has stopped.
Which, needless to say, suggests some changing sentiment despite on first glance a very average and respectable 2.73 times cover for the auction.Although, according to Barclays Capital, the weak final investor interest may have been driven by relatively stronger economic data and low absolute yield levels.


4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II

BASELL III

Tough Bank Rules Coming  WSJ

International banking regulators meet this weekend in Basel, Switzerland, to hammer out the details of a pact that will have lasting consequences for the world economy.  

 

 Why New Bank Capital Rules Could Make Things Worse CNBC

German Push to Delay Basel Capital Rules Meets U.S. Opposition BL

Bank investors get the jitters over Basel III  FT


7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

One In Five Hotel-Backed Loans Is Now Delinquent  ZH

In the monthly CMBS Market Trends update from Fitch we read that the hotel delinquency rate has just passed the psychological 20% delinquency threshold for the first time. As of August, 20.80% of all hotel-backed loans is in some stage of delinquency (up from 18.64% in July): that means that one in five (and rising) hotel-backed loans will likely never be repaid and proceed to liquidation. These and such are the ways, when underlying assets refuse to generate enough cash flow to satisfy interest requirements, let along create equity value... Which should explain why publicly-traded REITs are trading at near record highs.  

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

Fixing America’s Broken Housing Market Stiglitz

 

Is this your grandfather’s mortgage crisis? Lessons from the 1930s VOX

Why You Should Blame Your Grandparents For The Mortgage Crisis  BI





Here's Why A 9% Fall In Property Prices Is Coming In 2010  BI

We believe an ambitious destruction of credit-bubble debt investments would and will allow the economy to roar back to life. This camp says the creative destruction of debt following a credit bubble is the silver bullet, the radical magic, the Holy Grail, the gift of life.

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

U.S. Corporate Bonds: Default Rate Downtrend Nearly Over?   BCAR

SEC Will Weigh Rules Aimed at Preventing Companies From Concealing Debt  BL

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


Congress Yuan Action May Spark China Treasuries Sale, Roach Says BL
The U.S. House Ways and Means Committee is set to hold hearings on one such bill next week that might levy trade sanctions against China...

Yuan Completes Biggest Weekly Gain Since June on U.S. Pressure BL
“China’s move today amounts to political theater, a movement meant to keep the U.S. happy at a time when Geithner, the European Union and International Monetary Fund are all calling foul”

China's trade surplus narrows sharply Dow Jones
But its surplus with the US made up 90 per cent of the total and widened from two thirds in July.  

Empty Flats Spell Trouble Xie
Measuring the size of the property bubble in China by reference to the number of empty flats has become a hot topic of discussion. 

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

The Full List Of How Obama Spent $792 Billion On Fiscal Stimulus  BI



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVEOTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

Sowing Seeds of Fear  WSJ

Traders, food companies and aid agencies are taking a keen interest as Russian farmers plant the next wheat crop, amid fears that the world could face a food shortage next year. 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 


BP delays Q3 results due to oil spill complexities Reuters



   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

Bernanke conundrum is Obama’s problem Reuters

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

 The Significance of Consumer Deleveraging Comstock

For some time it has been our view that the recent recession, unlike all other post-war recessions, was caused by a credit crisis, and that it would therefore be followed by a series of weak recoveries and frequent recessions until consumers successfully deleveraged their exceedingly heavy debt loads.  That scenario now seems to be happening in accordance with our projections.  A statistical economic recovery that was already far weaker than average has decelerated even further and the ECRI weekly leading indicator index strongly suggests that another recession may be in store.

Consumers have only begun to cut back on their severe debt burdens, and the process will take a number of years. 


Debt, financial crisis hurt U.S. competitiveness WP


Nancy Pelosi heads to Canada to shut down America's next big oil source  BI

Look How Much Poorer We Are Than Three Years Ago  BI

With asset prices having fallen dramatically since 2007, Americans have seen their total net worths plummet.Household net worth is still far below the starting quarter of the recession, and the pace in which it is growing lags every other recession back to 1969.This chart shows just how far we need to go to get back to zero, via Mark Thomas

 

And with many of those assets now underwater, it's pretty clear Americans are spending their hard earned pay (or unemployment checks) deleveraging from a period of financial profligacy that led to this recession.Mark Thoma argues this is just the reason we need to see tax cuts increase, to avert a Japanese scenario.

Japan made the mistake of allowing balance sheet problems for both households and banks to linger and the result was a prolonged recession. We seem to have gotten the message about banks, though not fully — the problems are not being resolved as fast as I’d like to see — but the message that households need just as much attention seems to be harder for policymakers to get.

Maybe they're starting to understand now?

Check out why deleveraging is the number one threat to the U.S. economy through 2012

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

MARKET WARNINGS

Why Nobody Trades During Regular Hours Any More (And How Prop Funds Just Stop Trading When Volatility Spikes)  ZH

 
For those who follow our periodic updates on intraday stock volume, today's article by the Wall Street Journal which focuses on the dramatic decline in activity during regular working hours will come as no surprise. In a piece looking at prop trading shop Briargate (oh so witty anagram of arbitrage), founded by several former NYSE specialists, we learn that at least one firm (and likely many more) now no longer does any trading during the hours of 11 to 2. As this creates a feedback loop of inactivity, pretty soon the core of daily stock market activity will merely be the half an hour of action at the open, and the dark pool-ETF-open exchange rebalance at the very close, with everything inbetween deemed obsolete. Of course, what this will do, is create even more volatility in trading, force an even greater decline in stock trading volumes (and pain for Wall Street firms), and a further divergence between stocks and fundamentals, as momentum trading gains an even more prominent role in determine "price discovery."

 

The Death of Equities Charlie Fell

 

Zimmermann: ‘Tracking every turn that occured in 1930”  CNBC


Rumors About The Demise Of US Equity Culture, Premature Trader’s Narrative


No Bull: The Public Won't Come to Market Barron’s

 

Whitney Tilson- "We've Never Had More Conviction" In A Short  BI

  Liquidnet Lays Off 12% Of Workforce As Plunge In Stock Trading Volumes Now Causing Widespread Pain  ZH

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

IMF Resumes Direct Gold Dumping, Sells 10 Tons To Bangladesh Zero Hedge IMF 

 

VIDEO TO WATCH

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

To paraphrase Oscar Wilde

Investors know the price of everything but the value of nothing.


Author Unknown

In therapy, you have to accept a mistake to move on.  At times, this realization will be painful but in the end it is better for you.  Right now Wall Street is in complete denial and trying to pretend all is well.  Their profits are up but all that is happening is a wealth transfer from taxpayers to this unproductive group.


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

WEEKEND

09-11-10

SEPTEMBER
S M T W T F S
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12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30    

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TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

   

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.