Gordon T Long

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INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem

gave President Barrack Obama six months to roll-out his doomed Keynesian policies, twelve months to discover they were flawed and eighteen months to realize that the solution to America’s problems must lie within a different economic framework. I had hoped by the end of twenty-four months to see new policies closer to an Austrian economic philosophy emerge. I was wrong.

 

Though, even the Wall Street Journal recently featured an article on the re-emergence of the Austrian School of Economic philosophy, it would appear that President Obama’s administration still neither gets it, nor I am afraid ever will.

Key defections by his leading economic advisors, talk of the need for QE II and a Stimulus II, and a political collapse in public confidence suggests a growing awareness that Keynesian policies are not working, as many predicted they wouldn’t. Obama's exciting rhetoric of Hope and Change has left myself and the majority of recent polled Americans disillusioned and disappointed. What I see the administration failing to grasp is twofold:

 

I-America has a Structural problem, not a cyclical business cycle problem. Though the cyclical business cycle was greatly worsened by the financial crisis, I would argue that the structural problem facing the US is actually a contributor to what caused the financial crisis.

 

II- America has a Credit demand problem, not a Credit supply problem. It isn’t that the banks won’t lend, but rather that few can any longer afford or qualify (on any reasonably and historically sound basis) to borrow. READ MORE

   

 

PRESERVE & PROTECT: Mapping the Tipping Points

The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people are apparently willing to pay any price.  As a sailor it feels like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any eventuality. Are you prepared?

 

What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane? Unlike sailors the financial markets do not have the forecasting technology to protect it from such a possibility. Good sailors before today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial community.

 

Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly looming on the horizon.

Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971 the increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking. It has grown unchecked and inevitably became unhinged from world industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.  READ MORE


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

POSTS:  WEDNESDAY 09-08-10

Last Update: 09/09/2010 03:27 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
U.S. Blacklists Iranian-Owned German Bank EIH                     29
                       
Greek, Irish Bonds Decline Versus German Bunds on Bank Holdings Concern Bloomberg X                  
Greek Debt Deals Hidden From EU Probed as 400% Yield Gap Shows Bond Doubts Bloomberg X                  
German banking weaknesses come to light FT X                  
European Bank Woes Damp U.S. Stocks WSJ X                  
Rosenberg- Here Are 13 Signs That We're Actually In A Depression Right Now BI X                  
EU Ministers Divided on Bank Tax WSJ   X                
Duration Risk at Record as Companies Boost Long-Term Debt- Credit Markets Bloomberg     X              
Kansas City, Dallas Feds Called for Rate Increase WSJ     X              
Treasury announces new warrant auctions AP     X              
Dividends Beating Bond Yields by Most in 15 Years Bloomberg     X              
A Tale of Three States NYT       X            
California's Latest Budget Fix -- Suing The Crap Out Of Health Insurers BI       X            
Global-Bank Deal Targets Reserves WSJ           X        
J.C. Flowers, Other Bidders for EBS Building Said to Weigh More Irish Buys Bloomberg               X    
Home Buyer Tax Credit Price Tag- $22 Billion WSJ                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Unemployment in U.S. May Rise Toward 10% on `Feeble' Growth Bloomberg   X                
Summers In China: Currency Pressure Rejected By Chinese AP             X      
Get Out Of Gold and Stocks: Strategist CNBC             X      
STIMULUS II                      
Small Business to Obama- Tax Cuts Won’t Work WSJ                 X  
The Obama Economy WSJ                 X  
Obama to Propose Business Tax Relief, Spending to Spur Growth Bloomberg                 X  
Obama to Propose Tax Write-off for Capital Investments NYT                 X  
Obama to push business tax breaks FT                 X  
Republican’s backing aids $30bn stimulus bill FT                 X  
Obama's Proposals Unlikely to Pass Soon WSJ                 X  
The Real Reason Tax Cuts Won't Stimulate The Economy In The Short Term BI                 X  
Sorry- Obama Flatly Rejects Bush Tax Cut Extension For The Rich BI                 X  
World Bank backs farmland investment FT                 X  
REMAINING                      
Scarce resources should give all governments serious food for thought King                   31
                       
                       
BP OIL                      
BP to Take Some, Not All, Blame in Report WSJ                    
BP set to reveal findings of oil rig probe FT                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
The Perfect Salary for Happiness- $75,000 WSJ                    
The Long Term Does Not Exist Cross Currents                    
The Recognition Window Hussman                    
Alan Greenspan Admits America Is A Crony Capitalist System Zero Hedge                    
FLASH CRASH                      
SEC Considers Rules for High-Frequency Traders After Plunge Bloomberg                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Get Out Of Gold and Stocks: Strategist CNBC                    
Despite Last Week's Rally, The Market Is Still Tracking Japan BI                    
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
Meredith Whitney- Wall Street's Biggest "Ponzi Scheme" Is How  It Keeps Investors In The Dark On Their Own Investments C-SPAN                    

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





09-08-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

IRAN

U.S. Blacklists Iranian-Owned German Bank EIH  WSJ

 

The U.S. Treasury added Iran-owned, German-based European-Iranian Trade Bank AG to its key blacklist Tuesday, saying the bank has provided a financial lifeline to Iranian companies involved in weapons proliferation.

 

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

GREECE

Greek, Irish Bonds Decline Versus German Bunds on Bank Holdings Concern BL

 

Greek Debt Deals Hidden From EU Probed as 400% Yield Gap Shows Bond Doubts  BL

 

GERMANY

German banking weaknesses come to light  FT

 

European Bank Woes Damp U.S. Stocks WSJ

 

A bigger-than-expected drop in German manufacturing orders in July weighed on the euro, as the German data indicated that the recovery in Europe's largest economy is cooling.

Meanwhile, European Union finance ministers neared an agreement on stronger sanctions for member states that violate EU budget rules and closer scrutiny of total national-debt levels. But the governments were still divided over the issues of taxing banks and financial transactions.

 

USA

 

 

Rosenberg- Here Are 13 Signs That We're Actually In A Depression Right Now  BI

 

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

EU Ministers Divided on Bank Tax  WSJ

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

Duration Risk at Record as Companies Boost Long-Term Debt- Credit Markets  BL

 
INVESTORS Vulnerable - Once Again
Tumbling interest costs have encouraged companies to sell longer-dated bonds. The average yield on Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Corporate index fell to a record 3.44 percent on Aug. 24. Companies around the world issued $81.1 billion of debt due in at least 10 years last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “Investors are reaching for duration, which means portfolio valuations that are more volatile” as the economy improves, said Zoso Davies, a credit strategist at Barclays Capital in London.

INVERTED 10 YEAR SWAP - Banks Capitalize
Companies, particularly banks, have also been encouraged to sell longer-term bonds since 10-year interest-rate swaps fell below Treasury yields for the first time this year, the Bank for International Settlements said September 6th in its latest quarterly review. The 10-year swap rate first dropped below yields on similar-maturity U.S. government debt in March, and was 3 basis points lower at 2.62 percent today, Bloomberg data show. A negative swap spread makes it cheaper for borrowers to hedge their liabilities by exchanging floating- for fixed-rate payments. “The negative 10-year swap spread may reflect hedging related to U.S. corporate bond issuance,” Basel, Switzerland- based economists Jacob Gyntelberg and Michael R. King wrote in the report. “Banks in particular may have been quick to take advantage of this opportunity.”

 

Kansas City, Dallas Feds Called for Rate Increase  WSJ

 
Two regional Fed banks continued to call for an increase in the interest rate charged to banks on emergency loans last month, despite signs that the U.S. economy's recovery was losing steam.

 

Treasury announces new warrant auctions AP

 

Dividends Beating Bond Yields by Most in 15 Years BL

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

A Tale of Three States NYT


California's Latest Budget Fix -- Suing The Crap Out Of Health Insurers  BI

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II

 

Global-Bank Deal Targets Reserves  WSJ
Global banking regulators appear poised to demand larger reserves, which they believe will prevent a future financial crisis, and reserves of higher quality, under so-called Basel 3.

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

J.C. Flowers, Other Bidders for EBS Building Said to Weigh More Irish Buys  BL

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Home Buyer Tax Credit Price Tag- $22 Billion  WSJ

 

The total estimated cost of the home buyer tax credits is about $22 billion, according to a report released by the Government Accountability Office last week. The report looked at all three of the tax credits, which were in effect from April 2008 through June 30, 2010.

As we’ve written, the credits did a lot to juice sales. But many have argued that the government incentives basically pulled folks who were already planning on buying a home into the market earlier. And certainly, we’ve been seeing the post-credit hangover: Home resales dropped to record lows in July. Talk of a housing double-dip is in the air.

Some now argue that the government should just step back and let prices fall instead of propping up the market with tax credits and other buyer incentives.

Then some are still hoping for more: According to this NY Times article, some home builders are seeking a $25,000 tax credit.

“Our members are saying that if we can’t get a very large tax credit — one that really brings people off the bench — why use our political capital at all?” David Crowe, the chief economist for the home builders, tells the Times.

Readers, was the tax credit worth the money?

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


Unemployment in U.S. May Rise Toward 10% on `Feeble' Growth BL

13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


Summers In China: Currency Pressure Rejected By Chinese AP

Get Out Of Gold and Stocks: Strategist CNBC

farmers are possibly about to be sucked into the greatest financial revolution since the invention of the credit card.

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

Small Business to Obama- Tax Cuts Won’t Work WSJ

 

The Obama administration has targeted small business with laser-like focus, pushing a $30 billion small-business lending fund in Congress and, later this week, rolling out a tax break allowing businesses to deduct 100% of qualified capital investments.

But the chief economist at the National Federation of Independent Businesses said today that small business doesn’t need more tax relief. Instead, he said, Washington should aim its firepower at consumers so they begin spending money and creating demand for the products and services small companies provide.

“If you give a small business guy $20,000 he’ll say, ‘I could buy a new delivery truck but I have nobody to deliver to,’” said William Dunkelberg, chief economist for NFIB.

Rather than aim more tax relief at business, Dunkelberg said Washington should extend the Bush-era tax cuts for everyone – including those making above $250,000.

“History shows that letting Washington have the money and spend it is very ineffective,” he said.

The administration’s latest idea, which would allow businesses to temporarily deduct 100% of “qualified” capital investments, can help “on the margin,” Dunkelberg said. With capital-spending by small business at a 35-year low, some firms will naturally take advantage of a temporary tax incentive to replace products. But Dunkelberg said he thinks most small businesses will hold on to their cash until more certain economic times

The best way to help, he said, is to “finally address the most important person in the economy – the consumer.”

 

The Obama Economy  WSJ

 
How trillions in fiscal and monetary stimulus produced a 1.6% recovery.

 

Obama to Propose Business Tax Relief, Spending to Spur Growth BL


Obama to Propose Tax Write-off for Capital Investments NYT

 

The proposal for 100 percent expensing through 2011 will be part of a package that Mr. Obama will outline on Wednesday in Cleveland in a speech on the economy.

 

Obama to push business tax breaks  FT

Plans for $200bn in investment write-offs

 

Republican’s backing aids $30bn stimulus bill  FT

 

Obama's Proposals Unlikely to Pass Soon  WSJ

 

The Real Reason Tax Cuts Won't Stimulate The Economy In The Short Term  BI

 

President Obama is going to announce a sweeping set of new tax cuts aimed at jumpstarting business in the U.S. and attacking the unemployment problem.

But they aren't going to do anything to stimulate the economy. 

Right now, businesses and individuals aren't interested in spending money. This isn't because they find the situation in Washington unsettling, as some have suggested, but rather because they are  too-deeply in debt themselves and want to start getting out.

The situation businesses say they are in, loaded with cash ready to spend, is not the reality. Instead, many businesses have assets that have fallen in value, even while liabilities have remained stagnant. Notably, real estate is at the core of this problem. And businesses certainly aren't interested in telling the market they have serious debt worries.

So instead of spending excess capital or record profits on new investment or new purchases, companies are paying down debt to clean up their positions.

Richard Koo explains this scenario at greater length here and here.

This means that any tax cuts for new investment may hardly be used. Businesses aren't suddenly going to invest more money, when they are more concerned about their own balance sheets and those of potential consumers of their goods. And even if they do, their spending is liable to be more of a "cash for clunkers" scenario than something that can help the real economy.

The same goes for any proposed maintenance of the Bush Tax cuts, which would just be pocketed or used to pay down debts on underwater mortgages by consumers. And, in some cases, those who may even be in good financial shape may elect to save money as their confidence is so low in the future of the economy.

That means all that stimulus cash, in the form of tax rebates, will likely not go back into the real economy or create more jobs.

But there is a bright spot: All that cash WILL help companies and people pay down debt, which will help to drive the economy out of this deleveraging period at a faster rate. But it's going to take time.

The only entity that can spend right now to create a large amount of jobs right now is the U.S. government, and its $50 billion stimulus package not only falls short, but looks likely to fail.

Check out what a balance sheet recession is and why we're in one right now

 

Sorry- Obama Flatly Rejects Bush Tax Cut Extension For The Rich BI

 

 


 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

Scarce resources should give all governments serious food for thought King

 

World Bank backs farmland investment  FT

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 

BP to Take Some, Not All, Blame in Report  WSJ

BP's report on its investigation into the Deepwater Horizon disaster will apportion some of the blame to itself but also hold other companies responsible for the various decisions that led to the explosion.

BP set to reveal findings of oil rig probe  FT


 

 

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 



 

GENERAL INTEREST

 

The Perfect Salary for Happiness- $75,000  WSJ

 

The Long Term Does Not Exist Cross Currents


The Recognition Window Hussman

 

Alan Greenspan Admits America Is A Crony Capitalist System  ZH

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

SEC Considers Rules for High-Frequency Traders After Plunge BL

 

MARKET WARNINGS

 

Get Out Of Gold and Stocks: Strategist CNBC


Despite Last Week's Rally, The Market Is Still Tracking Japan  BI

 

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

 

 

VIDEO TO WATCH

 

Meredith Whitney- Wall Street's Biggest "Ponzi Scheme" Is How  It Keeps Investors In The Dark On Their Own Investments  BI

 
 

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

To paraphrase Oscar Wilde

Investors know the price of everything but the value of nothing.


Author Unknown
In therapy, you have to accept a mistake to move on.  At times, this realization will be painful but in the end it is better for you.  Right now Wall Street is in complete denial and trying to pretend all is well.  Their profits are up but all that is happening is a wealth transfer from taxpayers to this unproductive group.


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

WEDNESDAY

09-08-10

SEPTEMBER
S M T W T F S
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30    

ARCHIVAL

 

READING THE RIGHT BOOKS?  NO TIME?

 

WE HAVE IT ANALYZED & INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST RESEARCH PAPERS!

 

 

ACCEPTING PRE-ORDERS

 

 

 




 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

   

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.