Gordon T Long

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PRESERVE & PROTECT: Mapping the Tipping Points

The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people are apparently willing to pay any price.  As a sailor it feels like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any eventuality. Are you prepared?

 

What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane? Unlike sailors the financial markets do not have the forecasting technology to protect it from such a possibility. Good sailors before today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial community.

 

Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly looming on the horizon.

Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971 the increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking. It has grown unchecked and inevitably became unhinged from world industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.  READ MORE

 

Do you believe trees grow to the sky?

Or, is it you believe you are smart enough to get out before this graph crashes?

   

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

What made America great was her unsurpassed ability to innovate.  Equally important was also her ability to rapidly adapt to the change that this innovation fostered. For decades the combination has been a self reinforcing growth dynamic with innovation offering a continuously improving standard of living and higher corporate productivity levels, which the US quickly embraced and adapted to.

 

This in turn financed further innovation. No country in the world could match the American culture that flourished on technology advancements in all areas of human endeavor. However, something serious and major has changed across America.  Daily, more and more are becoming acutely aware of this, but few grasp exactly what it is.  It is called Creative Destruction. 

 

It turns out that what made America great is now killing her!

 

Our political leaders are presently addressing what they perceive as an intractable cyclical recovery problem when in fact it is a structural problem that is secular in nature. Like generals fighting the last war with outdated perceptions, we face a new and daunting challenge. A challenge that needs to be addressed with the urgency and scope of a Marshall plan that saved Europe from the ravages of a different type of destruction. We need a modern US centric Marshall plan focused on growth, but orders of magnitude larger than the one in the 1940’s. A plan even more brash than Kennedy’s plan in the 60’s to put a man of the moon by the end of the decade. America needs to again think and act boldly. First however, we need to see the enemy. As the great philosopher Pogo said: “I saw the enemy and it was I”.

READ MORE

 


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

POSTS:  WEEKEND 09-04-10

Last Update: 09/06/2010 07:34 PM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
1,354 Years in the Making: The "NEW" War That Could Rocket Oil Past $220 Before 2011 Byron King                    
Full classes put vision for schools at risk FT X                  
Extra 100,000 school places are needed FT X                  
Officials look to cut school building costs FT X                  
Coming soon to a state park near you: Corporate logos USAT X                  
ISM ISM X                  
Service Companies in U.S. Expand Less Than Forecast Bloomberg X                  
ECRI Index Just Collapsed Below -10% Again BI X                  
Libor Falls as Banks Sit on Cash WSJ   X                
More than 400 US Banks Will Fail: Roubini CNBC           X        
Companies Already Lobbying Fed on Financial Rules WSJ           X        
Goldman Sachs Said to Shut Principal Strategies Unit to Meet Volcker Rule Bloomberg           X        
The housing bubble reconsidered FT Alphaville                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
                       
LABOR REPORT - CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT     X                
LABOR REPORT BLS   X                
U.S. economy sheds 54,000 nonfarm jobs in Aug. Market Watch   X                
Non Farm Payrolls: The Devil Is In the Adjustments Jesse's Cafe   X                
U.S. Secretary of Labor USAT   X                
Payrolls Report Eases Concern U.S. Economy Is Sliding Back Into Recession Bloomberg   X                
Jobs Data Provide Hope WSJ   X                
Investors buoyed by better US jobs data FT   X                
Strongest jobs recovery in decades. Seriously. FORTUNE   X                
Here's How The Government Fabricates A Good Jobs Number BI   X                
Heavy in dollars, China warns of depreciation Reuters             X      
Major Chinese banks' risky loans reportedly rising Market Watch             X      
Governor is not in exile, says China's central bank BReport             X      
Prices for existing homes in third monthly fall Shanghai Daily             X      
NBS chief says to make data more credible China Daily             X      
A Dearth of Work for China's College Grads Business Week             X      
Bumper-to-bumper as epic China traffic jam returns AFP             X      
Beijing eyes counterbid for PotashCorp FT             X      
The White House is preparing a second stimulus, but you can't call it a stimulus BI                 X  
Obama Pledges New Measures to Boost Economic Growth Bloomberg                 X  
Obama to Link Tax Cuts, Hiring WSJ                 X  
U.S. to Deploy Broader Mortgage Aid WSJ                 X  
Obama May Seek Permanent Research Credit in Economic Proposals Bloomberg                 X  
A Cash-Strapped US Faces Diminished Political Clout Yale Global                 X  
The Real Story Krugman                 X  
REMAINING                      
Wheat Rises on Russian Export Ban; Mozambique Riots Bloomberg                   31
Now meat price surge raises fear of food inflation Indep UK                   31
Price versus earnings Hulbert                   32
Valuations at multiyear lows FundsSup.                   32
                       
BP OIL                      
Blaze in Gulf Shakes Oil Industry WSJ                    
BP Says Limits on Drilling Imperil Oil Spill Payouts NYT                    
No sign of oil spill after Gulf platform fire AP                    
BP bill for Gulf oil spill hits $8bn FT                    
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Bernanke Empowered Bloomberg                    
Bernanke Says He Failed to See Financial Flaws NYT                    
Bernanke out of moves, critics say Wash Times                    
Ben Bernanke’s Labor Day Reading List WSJ                    
Bernanke doesn't know if big banks will get reined in USAT                    
Central Bankers Explain Why Incompetence Should Be Rewarded Bloomberg                    
Advice from the IMF: Why Do These People Still Have Jobs? Baker                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Beggar thy Neighbour Absol Return                    
Coming soon to a state park near you: Corporate logos USAT                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Record Correlation Raises S&P 500 Vulnerability to Jobs Report Bus Week                    
Volatility and poor returns killing equities cult FT                    
Thinking Outside the Stocks WSJ                    
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
Paul Calls for Gold Audit, Questions Whether Fort Knox Is Empty Fox News                    
Is It Time to Scrap the P/E Ratio? WSJ                    
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
VIDEO: CREATION OF MONEY Bleeedingin
debt.com
                   
                       



Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





09-04-10

 

EO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

IRAN

 

PRESENTATION - Audio with Graphics

1,354 Years in the Making: The "NEW" War That Could Rocket Oil Past $220 Before 2011 Algora - Byron King

 

 

 

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

 

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

UK

Full classes put vision for schools at risk  FT
England faces acute shortage of places

Extra 100,000 school places are needed  FT

 

Officials look to cut school building costs  FT

 
JAPAN

Coming soon to a state park near you: Corporate logos USAT

 

 

USA

 

 

ISM  ISM

 

Service Companies in U.S. Expand Less Than Forecast BL

 

ECRI Index Just Collapsed Below -10% Again  BI

The Economic Cycle Research Institute 's (ECRI) leading indicator has dipped below -10% again, reports Zero Hedge. The -10% level is a 'definitive double dip' threshold, according to ZH, and if the ECRI tells you otherwise, which they probably will, then they're just spinsters against their own self-calculated index says ZH:  One can only imagine what the spin proffered by the index creators will be this time: it was suddenly very credible last week, hopefully that credibility persists as it reaffirms a definitive double dip yet again.

 

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

Libor Falls as Banks Sit on Cash  WSJ

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II

 

More than 400 US Banks Will Fail: Roubini CNBC


DODD FRANK

 

Companies Already Lobbying Fed on Financial Rules WSJ

 

Goldman Sachs Said to Shut Principal Strategies Unit to Meet Volcker Rule  BL

 

 

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

The housing bubble reconsidered FT Alphaville

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


 

LABOR REPORT

 

U.S. Labor Department reported that private payrolls climbed 67,000 in August, more than forecast. Overall employment fell 54,000 for a second month and the unemployment rate rose to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent as more people entered the labor force.

 

 

LABOR REPORT  BLS

 

U.S. economy sheds 54,000 nonfarm jobs in Aug. MW

 

Non Farm Payrolls: The Devil Is In the Adjustments Jesse's Cafe Americain

 

From my own analysis of each month's data, and especially looking at the changes made to the numbers over time, the two biggest factors are the restatements of prior months, and sometimes years, and the monthly changes in seasonality factor. Given the degrees of freedom in setting the seasonality, and adjusting prior months to add and subtract jobs once they have served their purpose in supporting the headlines, I think it is safe to say that if you give me a spreadsheet of jobs data, and you are my politically appointed supervisor, I can make the numbers come out pretty close to whatever you want within reason to support whatever messaging you may wish to put forward. As the errors start to add up over time, I can 'restate' the past numbers in a wholesale change to bring them into line with reality.So what is the point of this discussion. First, and foremost, judging the health of the economy over a monthly headline number like this is more artifice than substance. At worst it is leaked to Wall Street cronies to help them skin the public from their money, and provide a few sound bytes to support whatever political message the government wishes to promote that month to 'restore confidence.'  At best and most properly it can be included in a series of numbers, a moving average preferably that shows the trend in employment, which along with other factors can help economists determine the actual growth and health of the economy.

The government was able to turn around a tremendous loss of jobs, which is good news. The bad news is that they accomplished this by essentially throwing trillions of dollars at the problem, and in particular a corrupt and oversized financialization industry, in order to bring the trend back to zero. Without a change one cannot return to a bubble economy and hope it to be sustainable without a growing asset bubble. This implies organic growth and a return to a growth in the median wage which has been declining or stagnant in a long term structural trend. Has anything been done to promote this? No. And in this sense of over cautious lack of reform Obama is more a Hoover than a Roosevelt.But this cult of 'headline numbers' as used by the mainstream media, the government, and Wall Street is a sad commentary on the frivolous nature of US leadership. This childishness should not be surprising given that they think they can hide their monetary inflation by leasing gold into the bullion markets and buying Treasuries to hold down the long term rates while a private banking cartel prints money and provides it to their friends. And the primary capital allocation mechanism of the nation is riddled with false trades, naked short positions, and accounting fraud, schemes and subterfuges, that go largely unaddressed by the financial authority charged with enforcement of the integrity of the system even when they become so blatant as to cause a flash crash collapse of the system.

The only thing that is surprising about Wall Street and the US financial frauds is, as Eliot Spitzer famously observed, their scams and schemes are so simple and so obvious when one can pry back the veil of secrecy and see what is actually being done.

Sadly it will likely continue because 'it works' for the short term, and the US is preoccupied with the short term, instant analysis and results over substance and solid progress built on strong foundations, every time.

 

 

U.S. Secretary of Labor USA Today

“There are jobs out there.”
There is indeed a small jobs recovery happening, even if weak and uneven, and that's the key take-away from today's report given all the double-dip fears (as in double-dip recession fears) markets have been bombarded with lately.  According to Carpe Diem, where this chart is from, "This is the first time since December 2006 to July 2007, three years ago, of eight consecutive monthly gains in private-sector employment

 

Payrolls Report Eases Concern U.S. Economy Is Sliding Back Into Recession  BL

 

Jobs Data Provide Hope  WSJ
The U.S. economy lost jobs for the third month in a row in August, but modest hiring by the private sector eased concerns of a double-tip recession

 

Investors buoyed by better US jobs data   FT

 

Strongest jobs recovery in decades. Seriously. Fortune

 

Here's How The Government Fabricates A Good Jobs Number  BI



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


Heavy in dollars, China warns of depreciation Reuters
“A diversified international currency system will be more conducive to international economic and financial stability”

Major Chinese banks' risky loans reportedly rising MW

Governor is not in exile, says China's central bank BReport

Prices for existing homes in third monthly fall Shanghai Daily

NBS chief says to make data more credible China Daily

A Dearth of Work for China's College Grads BW

Bumper-to-bumper as epic China traffic jam returns AFP

Beijing eyes counterbid for PotashCorp  FT

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

STIMULUS II  - Sneaking it Out

 

  The White House is preparing a second stimulus, but you can't call it a stimulus BI

 
So it's clear: The economy will be gifted a second stimulus if the White House has its way (i.e. Congress complies).The Obama administration made that clear on Thursday. Some combination of tax cuts, tax extensions, and new infrastructure program will be put in place to (hopefully) get the economy rolling.The only thing is that you can't call it a stimulus. That's the official message from the administration, that no stimulus is being considered.We're guessing this has something to do with focus group politics. The word "stimulus" probably doesn't poll very well, but tax cuts and infrastructure do, so that's why the next stimulus won't be called as such.

In his latest op-ed Paul Krugman calls on The White House to do something super-bold (on the grounds that the GOP will oppose it no matter what), but given how timid the administration has been in voicing this issue, we wouldn't hold out much hope that it will be scale-tipping in any significant way.

 

Obama Pledges New Measures to Boost Economic Growth BL
  • - promised to lay out new ideas next week to boost growth and hiring.
  • - urged Congress to pass a package of measures to help small businesses, including tax breaks and aid to ease credit.
  • - White House economic advisers are considering additional measures, including more tax breaks for small businesses and new spending on infrastructure, according to congressional aides familiar with the discussions who spoke on condition of anonymity because talks are preliminary.
  • - Obama also may renew his call for Congress to permanently extend a research-and-development tax credit.
  •  - Any new initiatives will be “targeted” and won’t be on the same scale as the $814 billion stimulus legislation approved last year, Robert Gibbs, Obama’s spokesman, said yesterday. “Some big new stimulus plan is not in the offing,” he said.
  • - The House has already passed an administration-backed package of tax cuts and credit aid for small businesses. Senate Republicans blocked the legislation before lawmakers left for their summer recess.
  • Obama to Link Tax Cuts, Hiring  WSJ
    The Obama administration is moving toward using the revenue from expiring tax cuts for the wealthy to finance about $35 billion of tax cuts for small businesses and workers.
    U.S. to Deploy Broader Mortgage Aid  WSJ
    The Obama administration on Tuesday will launch its most ambitious effort at reducing mortgage balances for homeowners that owe more than their homes are worth.

    Officials say between 500,000 and 1.5 million so-called underwater loans could be modified through the program, the first initiative to target homeowners who are current on their mortgage payments but are at risk of default because they have no equity in their homes. Some experts are warning, however, that the same knots that tied up prior initiatives could do so again.

    Under the new "short refinance" program, banks and other creditors that write down mortgages to less than the value of the property can essentially hand off the reduced loan to the government. The process involves refinancing borrowers into loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration.

    While the program puts taxpayers at risk—officials estimate one in five loans in the program could default—the government has set aside $14 billion previously earmarked for housing aid from the Troubled Asset Relief Program to cover losses.

    The new program, which was announced in March, is starting as the housing market shows signs of renewed trouble and as the Obama administration's signature Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP, falls short of its goals of helping three million homeowners. Half of the 1.3 million borrowers that enrolled in temporary loan modifications have fallen out of HAMP because they didn't qualify. Only one-third has received permanent modifications.


    Obama May Seek Permanent Research Credit in Economic Proposals BL
    Obama will travel to Milwaukee on Sept. 6 and Cleveland Sept. 8 to discuss the economy and hold a news conference on Sept. 10 at the White House...

    A Cash-Strapped US Faces Diminished Political Clout YALE Global

    The Real Story Krugman


     


    OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

     

    19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

     

    24-RETAIL SALES

     

    26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

     

    31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

     

    Wheat Rises on Russian Export Ban; Mozambique Riots BL


    Now meat price surge raises fear of food inflation Independent

     

    32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

     

    Price versus earnings Hulbert 

     

    Valuations at multiyear lows Funds Supermarket




    BP - British Petroleum

    SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

    ------------

    Blaze in Gulf Shakes Oil Industry WSJ

    BP Says Limits on Drilling Imperil Oil Spill Payouts NYT

    No sign of oil spill after Gulf platform fire   AP

    BP bill for Gulf oil spill hits $8bn  FT

     

    CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

    ------------

    Bernanke Empowered BL

    Bernanke Says He Failed to See Financial Flaws NYT

    Bernanke out of moves, critics say WT

    Ben Bernanke’s Labor Day Reading List WSJ

    Bernanke doesn't know if big banks will get reined in USAT

    Central Bankers Explain Why Incompetence Should Be Rewarded BL

    Advice from the IMF: Why Do These People Still Have Jobs? Baker

     

    GENERAL INTEREST

     

    Beggar thy Neighbour Absolute Return Letter

     

    Coming soon to a state park near you: Corporate logos USAT

     

    FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

     

    MARKET WARNINGS

     

    Record Correlation Raises S&P 500 Vulnerability to Jobs Report BW
    Rising correlations show investors are ignoring relative values among industries and reacting to day-to-day signals on the economy...

     

    Volatility and poor returns killing equities cult  FT

     

    Thinking Outside the Stocks  WSJ
    The stock market may be slumping, but other investments, from student housing to parking lots, are surging. Here's how to play them.

     

    MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

     

    Paul Calls for Gold Audit, Questions Whether Fort Knox Is Empty Fox News

     

    Is It Time to Scrap the P/E Ratio?  WSJ
    With the vaunted price/earnings ratio losing its mojo as a market gauge, investors are seizing on better ways to value stocks.

     

    VIDEO TO WATCH

    VIDEO: CREATION OF MONEY   bleedingindebt.com

     

     

     

     

     

    QUOTE OF THE WEEK

     

    To paraphrase Oscar Wilde

    Investors know the price of everything but the value of nothing.


    Author Unknown
    In therapy, you have to accept a mistake to move on.  At times, this realization will be painful but in the end it is better for you.  Right now Wall Street is in complete denial and trying to pretend all is well.  Their profits are up but all that is happening is a wealth transfer from taxpayers to this unproductive group.


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    Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

     

    © Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

     

             

    TODAY'S NEWS

    WEEKEND

    09-04-10

    SEPTEMBER
    S M T W T F S
          1 2 3 4
    5 6 7 8 9 10 11
    12 13 14 15 16 17 18
    19 20 21 22 23 24 25
    26 27 28 29 30    

    ARCHIVAL

     

    READING THE RIGHT BOOKS?  NO TIME?

     

    WE HAVE IT ANALYZED & INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST RESEARCH PAPERS!

     

     

    ACCEPTING PRE-ORDERS

     

     

     




     

             

    TIPPING POINTS

    1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

    2-EU BANKING CRISIS
    3-BOND BUBBLE

    4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

    5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
    6-BANKING CRISIS II
    7-RISK REVERSAL

    8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

    9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
    10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
    11-PENSION CRISIS

    12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

    13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
    14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
     

    15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

    16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
    17-CHINA BUBBLE
    18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
    19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
    20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
    21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
    22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
    23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
    24-RETAIL SALES
    25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
    26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
    27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
    28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
    29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
    30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
    31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
    32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
    33-PANDEMIC
    34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
    35-TERRORIST EVENT
    36-NATURAL DISASTER

     


     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

     

     

       

     

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