Gordon T Long

RESEARCH ANALYTICS for the GLOBAL MACRO

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PRESERVE & PROTECT: Mapping the Tipping Points

The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people are apparently willing to pay any price.  As a sailor it feels like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any eventuality. Are you prepared?

 

What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane? Unlike sailors the financial markets do not have the forecasting technology to protect it from such a possibility. Good sailors before today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial community.

 

Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly looming on the horizon.

Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971 the increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking. It has grown unchecked and inevitably became unhinged from world industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.  READ MORE

 

Do you believe trees grow to the sky?

Or, is it you believe you are smart enough to get out before this graph crashes?

   

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

What made America great was her unsurpassed ability to innovate.  Equally important was also her ability to rapidly adapt to the change that this innovation fostered. For decades the combination has been a self reinforcing growth dynamic with innovation offering a continuously improving standard of living and higher corporate productivity levels, which the US quickly embraced and adapted to.

 

This in turn financed further innovation. No country in the world could match the American culture that flourished on technology advancements in all areas of human endeavor. However, something serious and major has changed across America.  Daily, more and more are becoming acutely aware of this, but few grasp exactly what it is.  It is called Creative Destruction. 

 

It turns out that what made America great is now killing her!

 

Our political leaders are presently addressing what they perceive as an intractable cyclical recovery problem when in fact it is a structural problem that is secular in nature. Like generals fighting the last war with outdated perceptions, we face a new and daunting challenge. A challenge that needs to be addressed with the urgency and scope of a Marshall plan that saved Europe from the ravages of a different type of destruction. We need a modern US centric Marshall plan focused on growth, but orders of magnitude larger than the one in the 1940’s. A plan even more brash than Kennedy’s plan in the 60’s to put a man of the moon by the end of the decade. America needs to again think and act boldly. First however, we need to see the enemy. As the great philosopher Pogo said: “I saw the enemy and it was I”.

READ MORE

 


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

POSTS:  FRIDAY 09-03-10

Last Update: 09/04/2010 04:23 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
                       
Moving Public Debt onto a Sustainable Path IMF X                  
Why Market Is Now More Certain Than Ever That Greece Will Default, And A European Funding Update Zero Hedge X                  
Germans show signs of taking the risk-averse route of Japan FT X                  
Britain's deficit is constraining public finances, says IMF report Indep - UK X                  
Yen Needs Help, Standard Says Bus Week X                  
BOJ Should Use ‘Unsterilized’ Intervention on Yen, Barclays Says Bus Week X                  
Mrs. Watanabe corners global currency market Market Watch X                  
Japan Said to View Likely American Opposition as Yen Intervention Obstacle Bloomberg X                  
Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased to 472,000 Last Week Bloomberg X                  
Productivity Falls Bloomberg X                  
Economy Avoids Recession Relapse as Data Can't Get Much Worse Bloomberg X                  
EU bank regulators overhaul stress tests FT   X                
Trichet Says ECB Will Continue Unlimited Loan Offerings to Banks Into 2011 Bloomberg   X                
Investigators Look into Frameups and Iniquity at German Bank Spiegel   X                
Lenders shunned on stress tests doubts FT   X                
Euro Spreads Are Blowing Out, So Why Isn't The Euro Still Plunging BI   X                
The Cult of Equity is dead. Long live bonds FTA     X              
Preliminary Report on U.S. Portfolio Holdings of Foreign Securities Treasury     X              
California `Budget Kabuki' Increases Schwarzenegger Debt Costs Bloomberg       X            
Research US: Fed up with QEII Danske           X        
TrimTabs Reports Percentage Of Hedge Funds Expecting To Raise Leverage In September Surges Zero Hedge             X      
Pending Sales of Existing Homes Unexpectedly Increase in July Bloomberg                 X  
House prices are still 10% too high: Barry Ritholtz TTicker                 X  
Mortgage rates hit decades-low of 4.32 percent AP                 X  
Banks Playing 'Foreclosure Roulette' With Delinquent Homeowners Huff. Post                 X  
A Dream House After All NYT - Case                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Low interest rates squeezing pension funds MSNBC X                  
Why America Isn’t Working Rogoff   X                
July unemployment up in about half of US cities AP   X                
On The Eve Of The Big Jobs Report, Gallup Says Underemployment Jumped In August BI   X                
REMAINING                      
Obama May Seek Permanent Research Tax Credit in Proposals to Boost Economy Bloomberg                   19
Retailers Post Surprisingly Strong August Sales CNBC                   24
Jobs deficit lays bare failure of Obamanomics Morici                   26
Fears grow over global food supply FT                   31
What’s driving the wheat price spike FT                   31
                       
BP OIL                      
Oil rig explodes in Gulf of Mexico FT                    
Blaze in Gulf Shakes Oil Industry WSJ                    
Oil Sheen Spreading From Gulf Platform Explosion AP                    
BP ready to publish findings of probe FT                    
BP- Cost of Spill Hits $8 Billion WSJ                    
BP Threatens To Cut Off Spill Fund Is Congress Blocks Offshore Permits BI                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Obama was too cautious in fearful times FT Wolf                    
Consumer bankruptcies fell 8 percent in August Reuters                    
Keys to Sustainable Recovery Makin                    
Summer of Economic Discontent WSJ                    
The Deficit Is a Symptom, Spending Is the Disease CATO                    
This Time It's Different, as Emerging Stocks Top World Bloomberg                    
Investors’ QE concern rises FT                    
FLASH CRASH                      
Regulators Looking Into Role 'Quote Stuffing' May Have Played in Flash Crash WSJ                    
High-frequency trading- Up against a bandsaw FT                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Could investors fleeing stocks become a lost generation? USA Today                    
Bruised Quant Funds Seek a Human Touch WSJ                    
Funds of hedge funds face up to bleak future Reuters                    
The Real Question- With The Economy Struggling, Why Haven't Equities Fallen Even Further BI                    
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
VIDEO: CREATION OF MONEY Bleeedingin
debt.com
                   
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





09-03-10

 

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

 Moving Public Debt onto a Sustainable Path IMF
The IMF cautioned that governments need to avoid complacency when their debt is close to its maximum sustainable level because there may be little warning from markets ahead of a very sharp spike in borrowing costs

 

GREECE

While the financial problems of Europe's periphery 'PIIGS' economies (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain), has receded substantially from business headlines, this doesn't mean that their crisis is over, or even getting better.

In fact, the creditworthiness of nations such as Greece, Portugal, and Spain is looking worse than ever, as represented by % spread between the yield demanded by bondholder for ten-year PIIGS government bonds and the ten-year bonds of Germany (Germany is Europe's version of a 'risk-free' yield to compare things against). For all of the PIIGS, it is worse off than before the European Unions's one-trillion-dollar affirmations of support for the PIIGS, or before the much bally-hooed bank stress tests.

The frenzy surrounding the Eurozone crisis may have ebbed, but it'll be back...

 

Why Market Is Now More Certain Than Ever That Greece Will Default, And A European Funding Update  ZH

 

GERMANY

Germans show signs of taking the risk-averse route of Japan FT

UK

Britain's deficit is constraining public finances, says IMF report Inde

 
JAPAN

Yen Needs Help, Standard Says BW
“The yen is criminally expensive...At this level, they are going to be totally destroyed by Korea.” 

BOJ Should Use ‘Unsterilized’ Intervention on Yen, Barclays Says BW


Mrs. Watanabe corners global currency market MW

Japan Said to View Likely American Opposition as Yen Intervention Obstacle  BL

 

 

USA

 

 

Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased to 472,000 Last Week BL

 

Productivity Falls  BL

 

Economy Avoids Recession Relapse as Data Can't Get Much Worse BL

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

EU bank regulators overhaul stress tests  FT

 

Trichet Says ECB Will Continue Unlimited Loan Offerings to Banks Into 2011 BL

 

Investigators Look into Frameups and Iniquity at German Bank Spiegel

 

Lenders shunned on stress tests doubts  FT

Companies make own assessment of European banks

 

Euro Spreads Are Blowing Out, So Why Isn't The Euro Still Plunging  BI

Morgan Stanley has some thoughts, though no concrete answers:

As shown in Exhibit 1, a relationship emerged between the performance of EUR/USD and European sovereign risk – proxied here by the Spanish 5Y CDS spread – in early 2010. In June the EUR bottomed and the spread peaked as the European governments agreed to provide multi-lateral support to sovereign credits. But after the initial positive response, concerns about long-term risks continued to overhang the market and spreads started widening out again starting in mid-July. The EUR initially tracked the spreads but over the past two weeks it appears that the link is breaking with the EUR holding firm as the spread widens back toward the June highs.

It remains moot whether this break is significant or, as was the case in January when an apparent break proved to be temporary. But we suspect it is not coincidental that the break emerged in the wake of the August 13 release of much better- than-expected German Q2 GDP growth, and we suspect that the EUR is now principally driven by expectations on global economic activity rather than the CDS spread.

 

But wait, there's more:

Further evidence that global growth rather than CDS spreads is becoming a more dominant driver of the EUR is apparent in the EUR correlation vs non-European currencies. As shown in Exhibit 2, during the six month period prior to August when sovereign concerns were dominating the EUR, correlation with other currencies plunged. Over the past month, as the EUR link to the CDS spread has faded, cross-currency correlations have rebounded – with the exception of the MXN. While the swing was more modest, the pattern also holds for the correlation between the EUR and SPX.

 

 

The implication, of course, is that the dollar will lose its appeal as a "risk off" asset (it already has) and sell off on bad economic news, if the economy continues to weaken.

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

The Cult of Equity is dead. Long live bonds FTA

 

Preliminary Report on U.S. Portfolio Holdings of Foreign Securities Treasury

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

California `Budget Kabuki' Increases Schwarzenegger Debt Costs  BL

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II

 
Research US: Fed up with QEII - Business Cycle Monitor Danske

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

TrimTabs Reports Percentage Of Hedge Funds Expecting To Raise Leverage In September Surges  ZH

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Pending Sales of Existing Homes Unexpectedly Increase in July BL

 

House prices are still 10% too high: Barry Ritholtz TTicker


Mortgage rates hit decades-low of 4.32 percent AP

 

Banks Playing 'Foreclosure Roulette' With Delinquent Homeowners HP

 

A Dream House After All NYT - Karl Case

Anyone who believed that home prices never fall has learned a tough lesson. The Case-Shiller price indexes released on Tuesday suggest that since their national peak in 2006, home prices have fallen by 29 percent. Some areas of course look better than others. Las Vegas is down 57 percent from its peak and Phoenix is down 51 percent. On the other hand, Boston is down just 13.5 percent and Dallas only 4.2 percent.

The effect on household wealth has been huge. Data maintained by the Federal Reserve show that the value of residential real estate directly held by households fell to $16.5 trillion in the first quarter of 2010, down from $22.9 trillion in 2006. It has yet to be determined who will end up bearing those losses. The decline in wealth has substantially reduced consumption, stifling the economy.

Four years ago, the monthly payment on a $300,000 house with 20 percent down and a mortgage rate of about 6.6 percent was $1,533. Today that $300,000 house would sell for $213,000 and a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with 20 percent down would carry a rate of about 4.2 percent and a monthly payment of $833. In addition, the down payment would be $42,600 instead of $60,000.

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS


Low interest rates squeezing pension funds MSNBC

12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


Why America Isn’t Working Rogoff

July unemployment up in about half of US cities AP

On The Eve Of The Big Jobs Report, Gallup Says Underemployment Jumped In August  BI
Challenger said layoffs in August were down. ADP says hiring was down, too. Today's initial claims report was okay, and now Gallup is saying underemployment jumped in August.

...Wednesday's ADP report suggests private-sector employment declined last month. Similarly, Gallup's underemployment measure and its unemployment rate show the job situation worsening. Gallup modeling suggests it is likely that the U.S. unemployment rate will increase to between 9.6% and 9.8% when the government reports the August numbers on Friday.

Worse yet, Gallup's job data show that 28% of Americans aged 18 to 29, 24% of those with no college education, and 22% of women were underemployed in August. This is not good news for retailers hoping that Christmas holiday sales will be better than those of back-to-school, or for politicians hoping to be re-elected in November.



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

Obama May Seek Permanent Research Tax Credit in Proposals to Boost Economy  BL

 

 

24-RETAIL SALES

Retailers Post Surprisingly Strong August Sales CNBC

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 Jobs deficit lays bare failure of Obamanomics Morici
In July alone, 381,000 adults chose to quit looking for work altogether and that trend will continue in Obama's land of dashed dreams and squandered opportunities. Economists expect the private sector added about 100,000 jobs in August, but that is an abysmal performance 14 months into a recovery from a deep recession. The economy must add 13 million private sector jobs by the end of 2013 to bring unemployment down to 6%. Obama's policies are not creating conditions for businesses to hire those 320,000 workers each month, net of layoffs.

Net of inventory adjustments, the economy's demand for goods and services is growing at only about 1% a year. The real potential is about 5%, but with economic policies so ill-conceived and with a president so ambivalent about private enterprises - other than those run by Wall Street barons, Hollywood producers and union bosses - that simply is not possible.

In the second quarter, consumer spending, investment in new structures, equipment and software, and government purchases added 4.4% to demand - but as imports grew much more rapidly than exports, the trade deficit tapped off 3.4%. The difference, 1% , is annual growth in demand for US-made goods and services. That has been the pace since the recovery began in July 2009. Businesses can accommodate up to 2% growth in demand just by improving productivity and not adding workers. Unless the rapid growth in imports can be curbed, the US economy is headed for very slow growth and rising unemployment.

The massive permanent expansion in federal spending and regulatory oversight built into Obama's budget is discouraging private hiring by raising fears of even higher taxes and yet more intrusive regulation.

Prior to the 2008 crisis, president George W Bush spent 19.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) and the deficit was $161 billion; two years into the economic recovery in 2011, Obama's budget projects outlays at 25.1% of GDP and a $1.3 trillion deficit in 2011. The latter figures are like to be closer to 27% and close to $2 trillion if the president does not accomplish the 4% growth his budgets assume in stark contrast to the real world the rest of us struggle.

Too much spending will require new taxes, and not just pushing rates marginally above 50% on families earning $250,000. Higher rates for those families will raise taxes on half the income earned by proprietorships - those small and medium-sized businesses the president is urging to create jobs.

Much of the stimulus money was squandered on political hobby-horses that create few jobs. For example, grants to build green buildings displace other, more cost-effective private construction and don't increase the amount of commercial space rented or built over the next several years. By delaying projects, those grants have slowed construction spending and killed jobs.

The biggest banks received more than $2 trillion in Troubled Asset Relief Program funds and Federal Reserve assistance to clean up their balance sheets and recapitalize securities trading, while the 8,000 regional banks got little assistance and remain burdened by toxic real-estate loans. Consequently, nearly 250 regional banks have failed, and small and medium-sized businesses cannot get credit to expand.

In addition to credit, businesses need more customers to create jobs, and the trade deficit - in particular, imports of oil and the imbalance with China - cut a huge hole in demand for US goods and services. Without addressing oil and China, other efforts to create jobs are futile.

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

Fears grow over global food supply  FT

 

What’s driving the wheat price spike  FT

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 

Oil rig explodes in Gulf of Mexico  FT

 

Blaze in Gulf Shakes Oil Industry  WSJ

 

 

Oil Sheen Spreading From Gulf Platform Explosion AP

BP ready to publish findings of probe  FT

BP- Cost of Spill Hits $8 Billion  WSJ

BP Threatens To Cut Off Spill Fund Is Congress Blocks Offshore Permits  BI

 

GENERAL INTEREST

 

Obama was too cautious in fearful times FT (Wolf)

 

Consumer bankruptcies fell 8 percent in August Reuters

Keys to Sustainable Recovery Makin

 

Summer of Economic Discontent WSJ

 

The Deficit Is a Symptom, Spending Is the Disease CATO

This Time It's Different, as Emerging Stocks Top World BL

 

Investors’ QE concern rises  FT

 

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

Regulators Looking Into Role 'Quote Stuffing' May Have Played in Flash Crash WSJ (Google)

High-frequency trading- Up against a bandsaw  FT

 

 

MARKET WARNINGS

Could investors fleeing stocks become a lost generation? USAT

 

Bruised Quant Funds Seek a Human Touch WSJ

 

Funds of hedge funds face up to bleak future Reuters

 

The Real Question- With The Economy Struggling, Why Haven't Equities Fallen Even Further  BI

The ability of US corporations to maintain their bottom lines in the last two years has been remarkable.  But this strength in earnings will not persist without a rebound in revenues.  As I recently highlighted analysts have become increasingly optimistic about the rebound in corporate profits, however, the sustainability of a margin based recovery is limited without organic revenue growth.  My analysis leads me to believe that the macro outlook will remain weak despite recent signs of strength in some reports.  Corporations tend to be reactive to the macro outlook which likely means they will keep their cost controls tight and maintain a defensive posture.  At the end of the chain is the analysts, who tend to be reactive to what corporations tell them.

The best way to visualize this is with the following image.  The macro economy tends to be the leading factor in corporate decisions.  This is why we will often see the business cycle peak at the point of rampant exuberance and mass layoffs at the trough in the cycle.  Corporations are not always out in front of the business cycle and in fact are usually reactive to the macro environment.  When times are good they spend.  When times are really good they spend excessively.  The opposite goes for the downside.

Analysts are the ultimate lagging factor in the equation.  A close study of analyst’s expectations will reveal very close ties to what corporations actually tell them.  This generally comes via the form of press releases (when Apple says they’ll earn $1 next quarter 75% of the analyst estimates are near $1 even though Apple ALWAYS beats), but can also come via the form of direct communication with analysts.  Corporations understand that the estimates matter a great deal to their stock price performance so they keep communications tight.  A growing economy is the perfect environment for wise executives who literally toy with the analysts by continually under promising and overdelivering.

Intel and Cisco’s warnings a few weeks ago were likely previews of what will become a trend in the coming two months.  If the macro picture continues to deteriorate (which I think there is a fairly high probability of) we will slowly see a deterioration in corporate earnings and a lagging effect at the analyst level.  But with a slowly deteriorating macro picture this won’t unravel overnight.  While most investors like to wish that this process would occur immediately (the equity markets suffer from a nasty case of A.D.D.) that just isn’t the case.

The global economy is like a battleship moving through rough sees.  Right now, I think we’re at a critical juncture where the ship is turning south through rough seas.  Deterioration at the macro level is clear, though we are likely to see it play itself out over the course of several quarters.  If the macro environment deteriorates more than I presume the earnings picture will have a snowball effect.  And of course, the same can be said of a positive macro surprise (with markets reacting positively).  While we’re beginning to see cracks in the earnings foundation we are not seeing a full blown collapse as we saw in 2008.  The market has been volatile, but it has remained resilient because we just aren’t seeing the weakness in corporate earnings.  Persistent macro weakness and a few more earnings seasons will likely change that as corporations move to adjust expectations heading into a more difficult environment and the analysts subsequently play catch-up.

 

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

 

 

VIDEO TO WATCH

VIDEO: CREATION OF MONEY   bleedingindebt.com

 

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

To paraphrase Oscar Wilde

Investors know the price of everything but the value of nothing.


Author Unknown
In therapy, you have to accept a mistake to move on.  At times, this realization will be painful but in the end it is better for you.  Right now Wall Street is in complete denial and trying to pretend all is well.  Their profits are up but all that is happening is a wealth transfer from taxpayers to this unproductive group.


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

FRIDAY

09-03-10

SEPTEMBER
S M T W T F S
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30    

ARCHIVAL

 

READING THE RIGHT BOOKS?  NO TIME?

 

WE HAVE IT ANALYZED & INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST RESEARCH PAPERS!

 

 

ACCEPTING PRE-ORDERS

 

 

 




 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

   

 

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