Gordon T Long

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PRESERVE & PROTECT: Mapping the Tipping Points

The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people are apparently willing to pay any price.  As a sailor it feels like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any eventuality. Are you prepared?

 

What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane? Unlike sailors the financial markets do not have the forecasting technology to protect it from such a possibility. Good sailors before today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial community.

 

Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly looming on the horizon.

Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971 the increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking. It has grown unchecked and inevitably became unhinged from world industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.  READ MORE

 

Do you believe trees grow to the sky?

Or, is it you believe you are smart enough to get out before this graph crashes?

   

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

What made America great was her unsurpassed ability to innovate.  Equally important was also her ability to rapidly adapt to the change that this innovation fostered. For decades the combination has been a self reinforcing growth dynamic with innovation offering a continuously improving standard of living and higher corporate productivity levels, which the US quickly embraced and adapted to.

 

This in turn financed further innovation. No country in the world could match the American culture that flourished on technology advancements in all areas of human endeavor. However, something serious and major has changed across America.  Daily, more and more are becoming acutely aware of this, but few grasp exactly what it is.  It is called Creative Destruction. 

 

It turns out that what made America great is now killing her!

 

Our political leaders are presently addressing what they perceive as an intractable cyclical recovery problem when in fact it is a structural problem that is secular in nature. Like generals fighting the last war with outdated perceptions, we face a new and daunting challenge. A challenge that needs to be addressed with the urgency and scope of a Marshall plan that saved Europe from the ravages of a different type of destruction. We need a modern US centric Marshall plan focused on growth, but orders of magnitude larger than the one in the 1940’s. A plan even more brash than Kennedy’s plan in the 60’s to put a man of the moon by the end of the decade. America needs to again think and act boldly. First however, we need to see the enemy. As the great philosopher Pogo said: “I saw the enemy and it was I”.

READ MORE

 


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

POSTS:  THURSDAY 09-02-10

Last Update: 09/03/2010 03:04 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
U.S. Announces More N.Korea Sanctions Chosun X                  
                       
Sovereign Debt Worries Will Last 10 Years: Strategist CNBC X                  
Presenting The Sovereign Default Equivalent Of The "Hindenburg Omen" Zero Hedge X                  
IMF Sees G7 Net Debt At 200% Of GDP By 2030; 441% By 2050 Zero Hedge X                  
Britain's deficit is constraining public finances, says IMF report Independ. X                  
House prices set to slump even further as home loans stay scarce Independ. X                  
UK house prices on downward trend FT X                  
Ireland Seeks To Extend European Commission Bank Guarantees As Top Banks See €25 Billion In Maturities This Month Zero Hedge X                  
Canada: The Power To Decouple? BCAR X                  
U.S. turns down China currency probes Reuters X                  
Citigroup to Increase China Workforce to 12,000 in Three Years Bloomberg X                  
China Manufacturing Quickens From Weakest Since 2009 Bloomberg X                  
Tax Rates, Business Investment, Personal Saving Rates: We Report, You Decide Kasriel X                  
Changing Our 2H US Growth Outlook Morgan Stanley X                  
Before You Get Too Excited About The ISM BI X                  
Preliminary Report on U.S. Portfolio Holdings of Foreign Securities Treasury     X              
Bernanke Out Of Bullets But Not Bombs Pento     X              
Bond Bubble Beh. Invt.     X              
Back to the Future for Dividend and Bond Yields BTTF     X              
Mayor Linda D. Thompson Harrisburg       X            
Harrisburg Default Will Be Covered by Ambac, Insurer Says Bloomberg       X            
Will Other Muni Bond Deadbeats Join Harrisburg? Forbes       X            
Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity BIS           X        
Quarterly Banking Profiile FDIC           X        
The bedridden banking recovery Fortune           X        
Risk back on as ISM and Chinese PMI surprise Zero Hedge             X      
Real Estate Premium Near Record to U.S. Bonds Signals Time to Buy Property Bloomberg               X    
Are Existing Home Prices Overrepresented By Up To 40% Zero Hedge                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
July unemployment up in about half of US cities Yahoo Fin   X                
ADP Estimates Companies in U.S. Unexpectedly Cut Jobs Bloomberg   X                
Planned Layoffs Hit 10-Year Low, First Drop Since April Reuters   X                
Fed's Duke Backs Rental Option to Mitigate Home Foreclosures, Unemployment Bloomberg     X              
Corporate stock buybacks surge in August from prior month Market Watch       X            
                       
REMAINING                      
GM Sales Plunge 25% on Weak Job Market Bloomberg                   24
August U.S. Car Sales Plummet WSJ                   24
Retail data: Americans still cautious in August AP                   24
Meat price surge fuels fears of food inflation FT                   31
U.S. Benefits as Wheat Prices Soar WSJ                   31
                       
                       
BP OIL                      
BP ready to publish findings of probe FT                    
Scientists- Dispersants May Delay Recovery of the Gulf By Years ... Or Decades Zero Hedge                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Who Wants To Be a Central Banker? Forsyth                    
The Jackson Hole papers (finally) FTA                    
U.K. keeps title as world forex trade hub Reuters                    
America’s Saving Surprise Feldstein                    
Leaked German Military Report Warns Of Apocalyptic Peak Oil Scenarios BI                    
Outgoing Obama Aide Admits- Stimulus Failed Because We Didn't Understand The Recession BI                    
FLASH CRASH                      
SEC Investigating HFT Quote Stuffing And Sub-Pennying Zero Hedge                    
JPMorgan Said to End Proprietary Trading to Meet Volcker Rule Bloomberg                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Titan Capital Joins Black Swan's Taleb in Raising Bets on Crash Bloomberg                    
Little statistical hope that stocks will beat month's bad reputation Hulbert                    
Scary Sept FT Alphaville                    
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
Fed's Duke Backs Rental Option to Mitigate Home Foreclosures, Unemployment Bloomberg                    
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





09-02-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

KOREA

U.S. Announces More N.Korea Sanctions Chosun

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

Sovereign Debt Worries Will Last 10 Years: Strategist CNBC

 

Presenting The Sovereign Default Equivalent Of The "Hindenburg Omen"  ZH
While the merits of its conclusion are at best questionable, and at worst, completely worthless, the IMF study presented earlier provides one statistical curiosity vis-a-vis sovereign defaults. Specifically, in "Default in Today's Advanced Economies: Unnecessary, Undesirable, and Unlikely" the author Carlo Cottarelli presents an observation which could be classified as a "Hindenburg Omen" type of signal for sovereign default. Unlike the real H.O. observation (which incidentally has now been experienced 5 times in the past three weeks) for stocks, the one relevant for sovereign bankruptcy has a much simpler gating threshold: 1,000 bps spread in credit risk. And just like in the Hindenburg Omen, this is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for a crash: only in this case it is not the market that collapses, but a country's solvency. Cottarelli finds that since the first Brady deals in 1991-92 there are 36 instances in which a country’s spreads rose above 1,000 basis points. "Of those instances, seven eventually resulted in default; in the remaining 29 cases, however, the spreads stayed high for a few months and eventually fell back well below 1,000 basis points, with no default." The 1,000 is logically an inverse gating factor: no single country defaulted with spreads being below the 1,000 threshold. In other words, once a country passes 1,000 bps, it has a one in five chance of defaulting, roughly in line with the crash expectations of the traditional Hindenburg Omen.

 

IMF Sees G7 Net Debt At 200% Of GDP By 2030; 441% By 2050  ZH
A paper by the IMF which set off to reassure investors that all is well with the world, and that sovereign defaults are nothing to worry about, concludes that, "under the current and future pressures on public finances—large primary gaps and rising health care and pension spending—public debt would spiral out of control in the absence of fiscal adjustment" and hilariously adds: "The surge in debt in this scenario, however, does not even take into account the possible negative feedback effects that higher debt could have on interest rates and economic growth."

 

SPAIN

 

GERMANY

 

FRANCE

 

UK

Britain's deficit is constraining public finances, says IMF report Inde

 

House prices set to slump even further as home loans stay scarce Independent

UK house prices on downward trend  FT

Nationwide index sees 0.9% fall in August

 

IRELAND

Ireland Seeks To Extend European Commission Bank Guarantees As Top Banks See €25 Billion In Maturities This Month  ZH

 

CANADA

Canada: The Power To Decouple? BCAR


JAPAN

 

CHINA
U.S. turns down China currency probes Reuters
"The allegations made by domestic producers do not meet the statutory standard for initiating an investigation”

Citigroup to Increase China Workforce to 12,000 in Three Years BL

 

China Manufacturing Quickens From Weakest Since 2009 BL

 

 

USA

 

 

Tax Rates, Business Investment, Personal Saving Rates: We Report, You Decide Kasriel

 

Changing Our 2H US Growth Outlook Morgan Stanley

 

Before You Get Too Excited About The ISM   BI

 


 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

Preliminary Report on U.S. Portfolio Holdings of Foreign Securities Treasury

 

Bernanke Out Of Bullets But Not Bombs Pento

 

Bond Bubble BInvesting

 

 

Back to the Future for Dividend and Bond Yields BW

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Mayor Linda D. Thompson:

“Now the chickens have come home to roost.”
WSJ: “the second-largest general-obligation municipal-bond default this year”


Harrisburg Default Will Be Covered by Ambac, Insurer Says BL


Will Other Muni Bond Deadbeats Join Harrisburg? Forbes


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II

 

Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity BIS

 

Quarterly Banking Profiile FDIC

 

The bedridden banking recovery Fortune

 

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

Risk back on as ISM and Chinese PMI surprise  ZH

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

Real Estate Premium Near Record to U.S. Bonds Signals Time to Buy Property BL

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Are Existing Home Prices Overrepresented By Up To 40%  ZH

 

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


July unemployment up in about half of US cities AP

ADP Estimates Companies in U.S. Unexpectedly Cut Jobs BL

Planned Layoffs Hit 10-Year Low, First Drop Since April Reuters



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

Fed's Duke Backs Rental Option to Mitigate Home Foreclosures, Unemployment  BL

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

Corporate stock buybacks surge in August from prior month MW


 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

GM Sales Plunge 25% on Weak Job Market BL

 

August U.S. Car Sales Plummet  WSJ

 

Retail data: Americans still cautious in August AP

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

Meat price surge fuels fears of food inflation  FT

 

U.S. Benefits as Wheat Prices Soar  WSJ




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 

BP ready to publish findings of probe  FT

Scientists- Dispersants May Delay Recovery of the Gulf By Years ... Or Decades  ZH



 

GENERAL INTEREST

Who Wants To Be a Central Banker? Forsyth

They can't fix economy's problem but get the blame

 

The Jackson Hole papers (finally) FTA

 

U.K. keeps title as world forex trade hub Reuters

 

America’s Saving Surprise Feldstein

Leaked German Military Report Warns Of Apocalyptic Peak Oil Scenarios  BI

 

Outgoing Obama Aide Admits- Stimulus Failed Because We Didn't Understand The Recession  BI

As she prepares to leave The White House, outgoing economic advisor Christina Romer has delivered something of a valedictory speech to the National Press Club. The title: Not My Father's Recession.

For Romer, her Father's recession was the one in the early 80s, when unemployment surged above 10%, and Romer's own father got laid off.

But the title basically tells you what you need to know: It's different this time -- this recession was not anything like the Fed-induced recession of her father -- and the old recovery playbook could not possibly go as anticipated.

Here's the key part of the text, via Brad DeLong's blog:

But compared with the problems we face, the turnaround has been insufficient.... 

In a report that Jared Bernstein and I issued during the transition, we estimated that by the end of 2010, a stimulus package like the Recovery Act would raise real GDP by about 3 1⁄2 percent and employment by about 31⁄2 million jobs, relative to what otherwise would have occurred. As the Council of Economic Advisers has documented in a series of reports to Congress, there is widespread agreement that the Act is broadly on track to meet these milestones....

What the Act hasn’t done is prevent unemployment from going above 8 percent, something else that Jared and I projected it would do. The reason that prediction was so far off is implicit in much of what I have been saying this afternoon. An estimate of what the economy will look like if a policy is adopted contains two components: a forecast of what would happen in the absence of the policy, and an estimate of the effect of the policy. As I’ve described, our estimates of the impact of the Recovery Act have proven quite accurate. But we, like virtually every other forecaster, failed to anticipate just how violent the recession would be in the absence of policy, and the degree to which the usual relationship between GDP and unemployment would break down.

Read the whole thing here.

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

SEC Investigating HFT Quote Stuffing And Sub-Pennying  ZH

 

JPMorgan Said to End Proprietary Trading to Meet Volcker Rule BL

 

MARKET WARNINGS

Titan Capital Joins Black Swan's Taleb in Raising Bets on Crash BL

 

Little statistical hope that stocks will beat month's bad reputation Hulbert 

 

Scary Sept

 

GOLD & MARKET MANIPULATION

Fed's Duke Backs Rental Option to Mitigate Home Foreclosures, Unemployment  WSJ

 

 

VIDEO TO WATCH

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

To paraphrase Oscar Wilde

Investors know the price of everything but the value of nothing.


Author Unknown
In therapy, you have to accept a mistake to move on.  At times, this realization will be painful but in the end it is better for you.  Right now Wall Street is in complete denial and trying to pretend all is well.  Their profits are up but all that is happening is a wealth transfer from taxpayers to this unproductive group.


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

THURSDAY

09-02-10

SEPTEMBER
S M T W T F S
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30    

ARCHIVAL

 

READING THE RIGHT BOOKS?  NO TIME?

 

WE HAVE IT ANALYZED & INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST RESEARCH PAPERS!

 

 

ACCEPTING PRE-ORDERS

 

 

 




 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

   

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.