Gordon T Long

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PRESERVE & PROTECT: Mapping the Tipping Points

The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people are apparently willing to pay any price.  As a sailor it feels like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any eventuality. Are you prepared?

 

What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane? Unlike sailors the financial markets do not have the forecasting technology to protect it from such a possibility. Good sailors before today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial community.

 

Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly looming on the horizon.

Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971 the increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking. It has grown unchecked and inevitably became unhinged from world industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.  READ MORE

 

Do you believe trees grow to the sky?

Or, is it you believe you are smart enough to get out before this graph crashes?

   

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

What made America great was her unsurpassed ability to innovate.  Equally important was also her ability to rapidly adapt to the change that this innovation fostered. For decades the combination has been a self reinforcing growth dynamic with innovation offering a continuously improving standard of living and higher corporate productivity levels, which the US quickly embraced and adapted to.

 

This in turn financed further innovation. No country in the world could match the American culture that flourished on technology advancements in all areas of human endeavor. However, something serious and major has changed across America.  Daily, more and more are becoming acutely aware of this, but few grasp exactly what it is.  It is called Creative Destruction. 

 

It turns out that what made America great is now killing her!

 

Our political leaders are presently addressing what they perceive as an intractable cyclical recovery problem when in fact it is a structural problem that is secular in nature. Like generals fighting the last war with outdated perceptions, we face a new and daunting challenge. A challenge that needs to be addressed with the urgency and scope of a Marshall plan that saved Europe from the ravages of a different type of destruction. We need a modern US centric Marshall plan focused on growth, but orders of magnitude larger than the one in the 1940’s. A plan even more brash than Kennedy’s plan in the 60’s to put a man of the moon by the end of the decade. America needs to again think and act boldly. First however, we need to see the enemy. As the great philosopher Pogo said: “I saw the enemy and it was I”.

READ MORE

 


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

POSTS:  WEDNESDAY 09-01-10

Last Update: 09/02/2010 03:45 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30
                                                                                                                                   
Legend to Right
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Austerity Hawks Lose Their Celtic Poster Child Bloomberg X                  
`Zombie' Hotels Arise in Ireland as Recession Empties Rooms Bloomberg X                  
BOJ Is `Too Little, Too Late' in Tackling Yen, Nakahara Says Bloomberg X                  
China's Manufacturing Growth Rebounds, Easing Concern Recovery Is Slowing Bloomberg X                  
Manufacturing Index for U.S. Increased in August Bloomberg X                  
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Improves Slightly Conference Board X                  
U.S. Business Activity Grows at Slower Pace as Chicago Index Falls to 56.7 Bloomberg X                  
Case/Shiller S & P X                  
Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rose More Than Forecast in June Bloomberg X                  
Corporate Default Swaps Head for Biggest Monthly Rise Since May in Europe Bloomberg   X                
Fed Meeting - Aug 10th, 2010 Minutes Federal Reserve     X              
Fed Saw Risk August Decision Would Send Wrong Signal Bloomberg     X              
Bond bubble inflating faster than dotcom CNBC     X              
Is it time to stop investing in U.S. debt? Fortune     X              
A helicopter drop for the US Treasury VOX     X              
Central bankers are gearing up for another dose of QE Telegraph     X              
Bernanke's song & dance act in Jackson Hole NY Post     X              
Buy Stocks as Municipal Yields Reach 43-Year Lows Bloomberg       X            
Second Leg of Crisis Beginning: Hedge Fund Manager CNBC           X        
Time To Break The Refinance Strike By The Big Banks Zero Hedge           X        
FDIC Finds 829 U.S. Banks at Risk WSJ           X        
Analysis: Major hedge funds cut back equity risk Reuters             X      
Banks’ shift pushes FX trading to $4,000bn a day FT             X      
Street Jumps on Property WSJ               X    
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Youth Unemployment Hit A Record High This Summer Huff. Post   X                
Burger King in Talks Over Possible Sale         X            
REMAINING                      
Measures Weighed to Spur Economy WSJ                   19
U.S. Auto Sales May Hit 28-Year Low as Discounts Flop Bloomberg                   24
A year ago, cash-for-clunkers spurred sales, but did it work? USA Today                   24
Gartner Cuts PC Sales Forecast WSJ                   24
Back-to-School Shopping a Bust WSJ                   24
                       
BP OIL                      
Oil Tests Positive for Dispersants in the Mississippi Sound Washingtons
blog
                   
BP Tells Experienced Gulf Fishermen that They Don't Know the Difference Between Oil and Seafloor Muck Washingtons
blog
                   
Mission (Not) Accomplished on Oil Spill Washingtons
blog
                   
Mission (Not) Accomplished on Oil Spill Washingtons
blog
                   
BP's Crude Oil May Be Radioactive Washingtons
blog
                   
Confirmed- Corexit Still Being Sprayed in the Gulf Washingtons
blog
                   
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Credit is finally available, but no one wants it CNNMoney                    
Record number in government anti-poverty programs USA Today                    
Why Wall St. Is Deserting Obama NY Times                    
Expect Two Recessions Before End Of Decade Mauldin                    
FLASH CRASH                      
                       
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Investors Embrace Bear Market Funds Bus. Week                    
Seven lean years: No recovery till 2016 Market Watch                    
Currency Trading Soars WSJ                    
GOLD                      
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
Overdose                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





09-01-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

IRAN

ISREAL

KOREA

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

SPAIN

 

GERMANY

 

FRANCE

 

UK

 

IRELAND

Austerity Hawks Lose Their Celtic Poster Child Lynn

`Zombie' Hotels Arise in Ireland as Recession Empties Rooms BL

JAPAN

BOJ Is `Too Little, Too Late' in Tackling Yen, Nakahara Says BL

 

CHINA

China's Manufacturing Growth Rebounds, Easing Concern Recovery Is Slowing  BL

 

 

USA

 

 

Manufacturing Index for U.S. Increased in August BL ISM

 

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Improves Slightly CB


U.S. Business Activity Grows at Slower Pace as Chicago Index Falls to 56.7 BL

Case/Shiller


Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rose More Than Forecast in June BL

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

Corporate Default Swaps Head for Biggest Monthly Rise Since May in Europe BL

 

Banks in Europe Would Face Fines for Failing to Report Derivatives Trading BL


3- BOND BUBBLE

 

Fed Meeting - Aug 10th, 2010 Minutes

 

Fed Saw Risk August Decision Would Send Wrong Signal BL

 

Bond bubble inflating faster than dotcom CNBC

Is it time to stop investing in U.S. debt? Fortune

A helicopter drop for the US Treasury VOX

 

Central bankers are gearing up for another dose of QE Telegraph

 

Bernanke's song & dance act in Jackson Hole Crudele
The problem with "unconventional" actions is that they turn conventional and ordinary pretty fast.

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Buy Stocks as Municipal Yields Reach 43-Year Lows Mysak


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II

 

Second Leg of Crisis Beginning: Hedge Fund Manager CNBC

 

Time To Break The Refinance Strike By The Big Banks  Zero Hedge
Just as the earnings of leveraged investors like banks are starting to suffer due to zero rate policy, so too the spending by all manner of savers, from retirees to companies and not-for-profits to municipalities, is falling too. Fed Chairman Bernanke and the other members of the FOMC are killing the real economy to save the banks — but none of the benefit flowing to the banks is reaching U.S. households. In fact, the Obama Administration has been providing political cover for the Fed to conduct a massive, reverse Robin Hood scheme, moving trillions of dollars in resources from savers and consumers to the big banks and their share and bond holders.

 

FDIC Finds 829 U.S. Banks at Risk  WSJ
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Tuesday that 829 of the nation's roughly 7,800 banks were on its "problem list" at the end of June, up from 775 at the end of the first three months of the year. Already 118 banks have failed this year, well ahead of the pace set last year when 140 were seized by regulators.

The results highlighted the diverging fortunes of larger banks and their smaller rivals. Major firms, which benefited from outsized government support at the height of the financial crisis, have been able to recover faster as evidenced by their ability to set aside less money for future loan losses. Smaller banks, conversely, increasingly make up a greater portion of the banks on the FDIC's list of troubled banks and continued to set aside more money for future loan problems.

For the first time since 2006 the number of loans at least three months past due fell, declining nearly 5%, and the number of loans charged off by banks declined across most major loan categories.

Banks boosted their results by setting aside less to cover future loan losses than they have in recent quarters. The agency said firms set aside a total of $40.3 billion to gird against future credit quality problems. That's still high by historic standards, but the figure is the lowest total reported by the industry in two years.

"Lower loss provisions suggest that many banks see asset quality problems moderating," Ms. Bair said.

Still, more than 60% of banks, mainly smaller institutions, continued to boost their loss reserves.

 

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

Analysis: Major hedge funds cut back equity risk Salmon

 

Banks’ shift pushes FX trading to $4,000bn a day

De-risk policy sees currency trading surge to record levels

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

Street Jumps on Property  WSJ
Real-estate funds saddled with boom-time properties are getting relief from Wall Street firms and other investors hoping to capitalize on their need for cash. The capital freeze plaguing the commercial-real-estate industry since the global financial downturn is beginning to thaw. For two years, property owners have refrained from selling to avoid realizing losses. But in recent weeks, some banks have also shown an increasing willingness to sell distressed assets at discounted prices because their balance sheets have stabilized and values have bounced back from their lows.

Amid depressed property values and maturing loans, a total of 40 private-equity real-estate funds have gone back to their investors for additional capital since last year, according to Townsend Group, which invests on behalf of institutional clients. But only a handful, including funds run by Deutsche Bank AG and Stockbridge Real Estate Funds—have been successful, as existing fund investors like pension funds and college endowments worry about throwing good money after bad.

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


Youth Unemployment Hit A Record High This Summer HP

13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

Burger King in Talks Over Possible Sale  WSJ
Burger King has been in talks with private-equity firms about a possible sale. The status of the talks is unclear but one interested firm was 3i Group PLC, a British private-equity firm.



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

Measures Weighed to Spur Economy  WSJ

 

 

24-RETAIL SALES

U.S. Auto Sales May Hit 28-Year Low as Discounts Flop BL

 

A year ago, cash-for-clunkers spurred sales, but did it work? USAT

 

Gartner Cuts PC Sales Forecast  WSJ
Gartner said Tuesday it now sees a weaker-than-expected second half "in light of the uncertain economic outlook for the United States and Western Europe."  "There is no doubt that consumer, if not business PC demand has slowed relative to expectations in mature markets,"

 

Back-to-School Shopping a Bust  WSJ
Shoppers spent slightly more last month than they had the year before, but sales were far short of 2008 levels, heralding what could be a disappointing holiday shopping season.

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 

The Following are from Washingtonsblog.com:
Oil Tests Positive for Dispersants in the Mississippi Sound

BP Tells Experienced Gulf Fishermen that They Don't Know the Difference Between Oil and Seafloor Muck

Mission (Not) Accomplished on Oil Spill

BP's Crude Oil May Be Radioactive

Confirmed- Corexit Still Being Sprayed in the Gulf

 

GENERAL INTEREST

Credit is finally available, but no one wants it Fortune

 

For the first time since 2006, banks are making commercial and industrial loans more available to small firms, with about one-fifth of large domestic banks having eased lending standards, according to the Fed's latest quarterly survey of banks' lending practices recorded during July 2010. This "offset a net tightening of standards by a small fraction of other banks," the Fed noted. Also, for the past six months, banks have continued easing lending to large and mid-sized firms.

What's more, banks also reported that they stopped cutting existing lines of credit for commercial and industrial firms for the first time since the Fed added the question in its survey in January 2009. And as for consumer loans, banks also reported easing standards for approving loans.

Credit is available, but demand remains flat. Asked in the July survey how demand for commercial and industrial loans has changed over the past three months, 61% of banks responded "about the same," while 9% said "moderately weaker." While it was good news that 30% responded "moderately stronger," it's not exactly a surge in demand.

Even in a slowly recovering economy, the growing distaste for credit among our debt-weary public has hampered the way for new purchases and investments.

This isn't all that surprising. The latest economic indicators paint a very exhausted consumer: In the years leading up to the financial crisis, he bought too much house and too many cars. He's in burn-out mode - more focused on either saving or paying down credit card debt than buying more appliances and gadgets.

The amount consumers owed on their credit cards during the three months ending in June dropped to its lowest levels in more than eight years, indicating that cardholders continue to pay off balances in the uncertain economy, according to TransUnion's second quarter credit card statistics.

The average combined debt for bank-issued credit cards fell by more than 13% to $4,951 over the previous year. This represented the first three-month period where credit card debt fell below $5,000 since the three months ending in March 2002. Meanwhile, personal savings have risen to 6.4% of after-tax incomes, about three times higher than it was in 2007.

Perhaps what the Fed's quarterly report is really saying is this: There's a growing distaste for credit. The American consumer is the child who ate too much and spoiled his dinner. And even if you hand him his favorite meal on a silver platter, he's just not that hungry. 

 

Record number in government anti-poverty programs USAT

 

Why Wall St. Is Deserting Obama Sorkin
“It is easy to see why so many people have concluded that the entire system is rigged.”

Expect Two Recessions Before End Of Decade Mauldin

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

 

MARKET WARNINGS

Investors Embrace Bear Market Funds BW

 

Seven lean years: No recovery till 2016 Farrell

 

Currency Trading Soars  WSJ

 

GOLD MANIPULATION

 

 

VIDEO TO WATCH

 

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 
To paraphrase Oscar Wilde

Investors know the price of everything but the value of nothing.

Author Unknown

I therapy, you have to accept a mistake to move on.  At times, this realization will be painful but in the end it is better for you.  Right now Wall Street is in complete denial and trying to pretend all is well.  Their profits are up but all that is happening is a wealth transfer from taxpayers to this unproductive group.

Jim Quinn - Burning Platform
Never have so few, done so little, and made so much, while screwing so many.

Mobs, Messiahs and Markets
“On the Forbes list of rich people, you will find hedge fund managers in droves, but no one who made his money as a hedge fund client.”


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

WEDNESDAY

09-01-10

AUGUST
S M T W T F S
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READING THE RIGHT BOOKS?  NO TIME?

 

WE HAVE IT ANALYZED & INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST RESEARCH PAPERS!

 

 

ACCEPTING PRE-ORDERS

 

 

 



 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

   

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.