Gordon T Long

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PRESERVE & PROTECT: Mapping the Tipping Points

The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people are apparently willing to pay any price.  As a sailor it feels like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any eventuality. Are you prepared?

 

What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane? Unlike sailors the financial markets do not have the forecasting technology to protect it from such a possibility. Good sailors before today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial community.

 

Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly looming on the horizon.

Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971 the increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking. It has grown unchecked and inevitably became unhinged from world industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.  READ MORE

 

Do you believe trees grow to the sky?

Or, is it you believe you are smart enough to get out before this graph crashes?

   

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

What made America great was her unsurpassed ability to innovate.  Equally important was also her ability to rapidly adapt to the change that this innovation fostered. For decades the combination has been a self reinforcing growth dynamic with innovation offering a continuously improving standard of living and higher corporate productivity levels, which the US quickly embraced and adapted to.

 

This in turn financed further innovation. No country in the world could match the American culture that flourished on technology advancements in all areas of human endeavor. However, something serious and major has changed across America.  Daily, more and more are becoming acutely aware of this, but few grasp exactly what it is.  It is called Creative Destruction. 

 

It turns out that what made America great is now killing her!

 

Our political leaders are presently addressing what they perceive as an intractable cyclical recovery problem when in fact it is a structural problem that is secular in nature. Like generals fighting the last war with outdated perceptions, we face a new and daunting challenge. A challenge that needs to be addressed with the urgency and scope of a Marshall plan that saved Europe from the ravages of a different type of destruction. We need a modern US centric Marshall plan focused on growth, but orders of magnitude larger than the one in the 1940’s. A plan even more brash than Kennedy’s plan in the 60’s to put a man of the moon by the end of the decade. America needs to again think and act boldly. First however, we need to see the enemy. As the great philosopher Pogo said: “I saw the enemy and it was I”.

READ MORE

 


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

POSTS:  TUESDAY 08-31-10

Last Update: 09/01/2010 05:32 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
US steps up N Korea sanctions FT                   29
Greeks "In Over Their Heads In Debt" Means Non Performing Loans Poised To Surge Zero Hedge X                  
Osborne plans 25% Treasury staff cuts FT X                  
Eurozone test over €25bn repayment FT X                  
Euro Shoots Straight Down, Anglo Irish Bank Set To Report Gigantic Loss BI X                  
Japanese 10-Year Yield Falls Below 1% BI X                  
Is Low-Wage China Disappearing? Proj. Synd. X                  
Yuan Set for Biggest Monthly Drop Since '94 as Economy Slows, Dollar Gains Bloomberg X                  
Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises More Than Forecast, Incomes Lag Bloomberg X                  
Dallas Fed August Manufacturing Activity Comes At -13.5%, Below Expectations Zero Hedge X                  
Bankrupt Miami in Fiscal Emergency, Breaks Employee Contracts, Hikes Property Taxes Mish       X            
Banks Recruit Investors to Oppose Honest Valuation of Assets Mish           X        
Bargains on Failed Banks Over WSJ           X        
IMF Expands Loan Options WSJ           X        
Housing bubble 'an accident waiting to happen': report Montreal Gazette                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Dodd-Frank presents a PR minefield FT                 X  
US pay law branded ‘logistical nightmare’ FT                 X  
                       
REMAINING                      
The conservative counter-revolution FT - Wolf                   26
The P/E Ratio's Sinking -- and So Is Its Prominence WSJ                   32
The Deteriorating Macro Picture Prag. Capit.                   32
                       
                       
BP OIL                      
Gulf Blue Plague Part II- Corexit+Bacteria=Mutated Viruses World Vis. Portal                    
Slow Violence in the Gulf and the BP Coverups CounterPun                    
America's Gulf: Updating the Greatest Ever Environmental Crime WIAC.org                    
Fish Kills Worry Gulf Scientists, Fishers, Environmentalists IPS News                    
Louisiana Air tests reveal Health Threats from Oil Disaster Inst. South Studies                    
BP Said to Fault Own Engineers for Misinterpreting Well Data Bloomberg                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
The Age of Mammon Burning Platform                    
FLASH CRASH                      
                       
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Titan Capital Joins Black Swan's Taleb in Increasing Bets on Extreme Moves Bloomberg                    
GOLD                      
Gold Reaching $1,500 for Analysts in Any Economy as Soros Bubble Inflates Bloomberg                    
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





08-31-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

KOREA

US steps up N Korea sanctions  FT

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

GREECE

Greeks "In Over Their Heads In Debt" Means Non Performing Loans Poised To Surge  ZH
A Bloomberg TV report looks at a troubling and all too expected trend developing currently in Greece: namely the overabundance of easy credit provided to Greek consumers to fund unprofitable business, and which loans the recipients have no intention of every paying back. Sounds familiar - the ECB has now directly taken a page from the official PBOC playbook on how to keep the ponzi dreams alive for one more day. As the narrators points out simply: "more and more Greeks are finding themselves unable to pay back their loans." The surge in NPLs is demonstrated by the chart of loan performance over the past two years, comparing the 5% in NPLs in 2008, jumping to 7.7% in 2009, and hitting 8.2% at Q1 2010. And since banks are all about hiding the true impact of deteriorating assets, one can bet the true level of NPLs is will in the double digit range. And guess what - all these eventual charge offs will have to be funded by the ECB-IMF rescue mechanism, which means that sooner or later America, via its primary contribution to the IMF's various rescue facilities, will end up having to bail out the Greek debtor class. And as austerity is only expected to make things worse, the only possible (flawed) resolution is to do what the Cajas in Spain did: a massive wave of consolidation, so that those bigger banks provide some capitalization buffer for the smaller insolvent firms, until such time as the entire market is comprised of just a few TBTFs, which will nonetheless still be in need of bailing out.

 
 

 

SPAIN

 

GERMANY

 

FRANCE

 

UK

Osborne plans 25% Treasury staff cuts  FT

Chancellor to scale back department’s role

 

IRELAND

Eurozone test over €25bn repayment  FT

Ireland’s banks braced for debt settlement

Euro Shoots Straight Down, Anglo Irish Bank Set To Report Gigantic Loss  BI
The Irish Times:   STATE-OWNED ANGLO Irish Bank is expected today to report a loss for the first half of this year well in excess of the previous six-month deficit of €4.1 billion posted last year.This would lead to Anglo setting a new Irish corporate record for a loss in a six-month period.The bank will report the losses incurred on the transfer of the first €9.25 billion in loans sold to the National Asset Management Agency, and further losses on non-Nama loans and investments.


JAPAN

Japanese 10-Year Yield Falls Below 1%  BI

 

CHINA
Is Low-Wage China Disappearing? Project-Syndicate

 

Yuan Set for Biggest Monthly Drop Since '94 as Economy Slows, Dollar Gains  BL

 

 

USA

 

 

Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises More Than Forecast, Incomes Lag BL

BEA

 

Dallas Fed August Manufacturing Activity Comes At -13.5%, Below Expectations  ZH

Nothing good to report out of the Dallas Fed, today's last key economic data point, which came in at -13.5%, missing expectations of -10.0%, although a modest rebound from the prior disastrous plunge to -21.0% in July. Special question comments included in the current survey demonstrated ongoing deterioration, especially in current perceptions of business conditions, with an emphasis on the hit to businesses due to the recent deepwater drilling moratorium.

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Bankrupt Miami in Fiscal Emergency, Breaks Employee Contracts, Hikes Property Taxes  Mish

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II

 

Banks Recruit Investors to Oppose Honest Valuation of Assets  Mish

 

Bargains on Failed Banks Over  WSJ

 

IMF Expands Loan Options  WSJ

 

The International Monetary Fund said Monday it would broaden the kinds of loans it offers to encourage a large swath of developing countries to get financial help before they are engulfed in crisis.

Under a new "precautionary credit line," the IMF said it would lend a substantial amount of money to countries whose policies it generally endorses, before those nations run into trouble. The loan would operate like a line of credit, so a country wouldn't have to use the money, and rack up interest charges, unless it needed the financing.

The program would offer loans of as much as five times a country's quota, meaning its financial stake in the IMF, with the possibility of doubling that after a year. Indonesia, for instance, has a $3.1 billion quota, so it could be eligible for a credit line of up to $31 billion.

 

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Housing bubble 'an accident waiting to happen': report Montreal Gazette
“Canada is experiencing for the first time in the last 30 years, a synchronized housing bubble across the six largest residential real-estate markets in Canada.” The report traces the trend in large part to low mortgage rates and access to easy credit, which can encourage buyers to purchase homes they might not otherwise be able to afford.

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

Dodd-Frank presents a PR minefield  FT

 

US pay law branded ‘logistical nightmare’  FT

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

The conservative counter-revolution  FT Martin Wolf

 

First, the expansion of the financial sector and associated leveraging of the household sector played a big part in the growth of the economies of the US and UK. The question is how far growth driven by these two linked developments will turn out to have been a mirage. It is not difficult to see why that might be the case. The financial sector creates money and credit not only used to pay fees to itself and to a host of brokers and agents, but also to finance construction booms. Furthermore, the next decade is likely to see deleveraging in the US and UK, in both household and financial sectors, while the willingness to leverage up the government sector seems set to hit political or economic limits. This combination of factors might make these countries’ performance look a little like that of Japan in the 1990s, with chronically weak aggregate demand.

Second, the US and UK have run substantial current account deficits in recent decades. Andrew Smithers of London-based Smithers & Co argues that this has allowed the relative shrinkage of manufacturing, a capital-intensive sector. That, in turn, has permitted the two economies to grow quite fast, despite relatively low rates of investment in physical capital. In the coming decade, this process is likely to be reversed. Savings and investment would then have to rise substantially to sustain given rates of overall economic growth. Should this not happen, growth would slow further.

Bubbles induce severe over-estimates of underlying economic performance. Will the same prove true of the US and UK? I would guess so. Might the next decade belong to Germany or Japan, instead? That would not surprise me either. Expect the unexpected. It is a good rule.

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

The P/E Ratio's Sinking -- and So Is Its Prominence WSJ

 

The stock market's average price/earnings ratio, meanwhile, is in free fall, having plunged about 36% during the past year, the largest 12-month decline since 2003. It now stands at about 14.9, compared with 23.1 last September, based on trailing 12-month earnings results. Based on profit expectations over the next 12 months, the P/E ratio has fallen to 12.2 from about 14.5 in May.

So what explains the contraction? In short, economic uncertainty. A steady procession of bad news, from the European financial crisis to fears of deflation in the U.S., has prompted analysts to cut profit forecasts for 2011.

Three months ago, analysts expected the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index to boost profits 18% in 2011. Now, they predict 15%. Mutual-fund, hedge-fund and other money managers put the increase at closer to 9%, according to a recent Citigroup survey, while Mr. Levkovich's estimate is for 7% growth.

"The sustainability of earnings is in doubt," said Howard Silverblatt, an index analyst at S&P in New York. "Estimates are still optimistic."

Equally troublesome, analysts' forecasts are becoming scattered. In May, the range between the highest and lowest analyst forecasts of S&P 500 earnings per share in 2011 was $12. Morgan Stanley predicted $85 per share, while UBS predicted $97 per share. Now, the spread is $15. Barclays said $80 per share; Deutsche Bank predicts $95.

 

The Deteriorating Macro Picture Pragmatic Capitalist
What makes the current environment particularly alarming is the increasing divergence between the macro outlook and the earnings picture.  The market has remained relatively robust in recent months despite an onslaught of negative news, however, any signs of weakness in corporate earnings will likely change that.  The corporate earnings picture is looking increasingly precarious.

Over the last 18 months we have seen a moderate recovery in corporate revenues as government spending picked up the slack and confidence surged from the lows.   As the government stimulus ends the modest revenue recovery is at risk of running into a wall.  More alarming is the likelihood of a stall in corporate profit margins.

This leaves the equity markets in a precarious situation.  The macro outlook appears to be deteriorating in recent months, however, the private sector is in no place to maintain the necessary level of aggregate demand that can sustain the recovery in corporate revenues.  With revenues likely to slow and margin expansion likely peaking there is increasing risk of further defensive posturing from corporations.  If the macro outlook deteriorates further (none of this even considers the very serious exogenous risks from China and Europe)  the private sector balance sheet will further deteriorate as layoffs ensue.   Assuming no further government intervention the balance sheet recession is likely to persist well into 2011.  If the divergence in earnings materializes equity markets will remain under pressure.  If an exogenous event shocks the markets (Eurozone sovereign debt concerns for example) the equity markets could deteriorate substantially.

 

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 


Gulf Blue Plague Part II- Corexit+Bacteria=Mutated Viruses World Vision Portal

The Gulf of Mexico is a breeding ground for a pandemic viral plague primarily because of the chemical mutagens being dumped into the water in vast quantities that we may never be able to properly verify. The use of Corexit is no different than adding gasoline to a small fire. The explosive result is the same. The Blue Plague may not just be evolving any longer. It may have already started to mature and replicate in immeasurable amounts. All it takes for the Blue Plague to become a worldwide epidemic is for a minuscule cluster of viral infected bacteria to be immersed in a chemical mutagen, such as Corexit. The potential results could easily make the 1918 Spanish Flu look minor in comparison. While those of us living on the Gulf Coast go about our daily lives, a time bomb is ticking louder and louder in the Gulf of Mexico. It’s not a matter of if there are mutant viruses present: It’s a matter of when that first cluster will spread – if it hasn’t started to already - and how fast it will become a pandemic of astronomical proportions. We have sent our research and findings to private biology and virology experts for further verification. Water samples have been sent to a university laboratory outside of North America. All additional results will be published as soon as they are received.

Slow Violence in the Gulf and the BP Coverups  Counterpunch
Three vanishing acts are being played out in the Gulf: the disappearing of the oil from the ocean surface by Corexit, the disappearing of the story by the media blockade, and the disappearing from view of the shadowy private contractors who are making a mint helping BP and the Coast Guard keep a cover on the clean-up. This triple vanishing trick, collectively choreographed by BP and sundry federal agencies, culminated on August 4th in a report released by NOAA that claimed 75% of the oil spill had been captured, burned, evaporated or broken down. The White House hailed the report as something to celebrate. Energy advisor Carol Browne announced: “the vast majority of the oil is gone.”

America's Gulf: Updating the Greatest Ever Environmental Crime WIAC.org
For months, US media reports distorted and lied about its severity, running cover for BP and the Obama administration, now practically avoiding the crisis altogether as it worsens. An August 20 Inter Press Service report is revealing, quoting Biloxi, MS fisherman Danny Ross saying hypoxia (depleted oxygen) is driving horseshoe crabs, stingrays, flounder, dolphins, and other sea life "out of the water" to escape. Another area fisherman, David Wallis said he's "seen crabs crawling out of the water in the middle of the day."

Fish Kills Worry Gulf Scientists, Fishers, Environmentalists  IPS News
"As a scientist, my belief is that this fish kill is 75 percent likely due to hypoxic conditions, not enough oxygen in the water to sustain life," Dr. Cake said. "Because it was both bottom dwelling fish and crab, and other fish from the middle of the water column, whatever caused this covered the entire water column. That gives me great concern. The scientist in me says there was some other triggering mechanism."

Dr. Cake believes the "triggering mechanism" is likely oil and toxic dispersants from the BP oil disaster.

Louisiana Air tests reveal Health Threats from Oil Disaster  Institute for Southern Studies
The media coverage of the BP oil disaster to date has focused largely on the threats to wildlife, but the latest evaluation of air monitoring data shows a serious threat to human health from airborne chemicals emitted by the ongoing deepwater gusher.

BP Said to Fault Own Engineers for Misinterpreting Well Data  BL

 

GENERAL INTEREST

 

The Age of Mammon  The Burning Platform

 

The Wall Street oligarchs  were able to accumulate an ever increasing portion of corporate profits by inventing securitization, interest-rate swaps, and credit-default swaps which swelled the volume of transactions that bankers could make money on. These products were originally introduced as a means for corporations to hedge their risks. Wall Street shysters chose to use their “creative” financial products to build the biggest gambling casino in the history of the world. They functioned as the house, siphoning off billions in profits, but then got caught up in the hysteria and placed billions of bets themselves. This resulted in the financial industry generating 41% of all business profits in 2007. From World War II through 1980, financial industry profits ranged between 10% and 15%. Simon Johnson explains the despicable hijacking that has taken place since then.

From 1973 to 1985, the financial sector never earned more than 16 percent of domestic corporate profits. In 1986, that figure reached 19 percent. In the 1990s, it oscillated between 21 percent and 30 percent, higher than it had ever been in the postwar period. This decade, it reached 41 percent. Pay rose just as dramatically. From 1948 to 1982, average compensation in the financial sector ranged between 99 percent and 108 percent of the average for all domestic private industries. From 1983, it shot upward, reaching 181 percent in 2007. 

The original robber barons amassed huge personal fortunes, typically through the use of anti-competitive business practices. These well known titans of industry included Henry Ford, Andrew Carnage, John D. Rockefeller, and JP Morgan. They may have practiced questionable business ethics, but they did create wealth while benefitting the country as a whole. They introduced the automobile, provided the nation with steel, produced the oil that powered our economy, and brought order to industrial chaos of the day. It seems their fortunes were built by creating rather than destroying.

The disgustingly rich Wall Street wheeler dealers who live in Greenwich CT and NYC and summer in the Hamptons have created nothing. Their immense wealth has been created through draining the economic system of its lifeblood. Their financial innovations have created no lasting benefit for our society. Wall Street knowingly created no documentation (liar loans) mortgage loans, Option ARM loans, and subprime loans. You do not create products that beg for fraud unless you want fraud. The packaging of these fraudulent mortgages into CDOs and CDSs by Wall Street’s crime machine benefitted Wall Street only. Those who got the loans defaulted, lost the homes, and had their credit ruined. Wall Street financiers have lured the American public into debt with easy credit and a marketing machine geared to convince the average Joe that he could live just like the rich. Simon Johnson explained the phenomena in a recent article.  

 
“Excessive consumer debt is an outcome of prolonged inequality – in trying to remain middle class, too many people borrowed too much, while unscrupulous lenders were only too willing to take advantage of such people.” 

Capitalism is supposed to be an economic system in which the means of production and distribution are privately owned and operated for profit; decisions regarding supply, demand, price, distribution, and investments are not made by the government; Profit is distributed to owners who invest in businesses, and wages are paid to workers employed by businesses. The American economy is in no way a free market capitalistic system. It has become a oligarchic consumer capitalist society that is manipulated, in a deliberate and coordinated way, on a very large scale, through mass-marketing techniques, to the advantage of Wall Street and mega-corporations.

 

 

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

 

MARKET WARNINGS

Titan Capital Joins Black Swan's Taleb in Increasing Bets on Extreme Moves  BL

 

 

GOLD MANIPULATION

Gold Reaching $1,500 for Analysts in Any Economy as Soros Bubble Inflates  BL

 

 

VIDEO TO WATCH

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

To paraphrase Oscar Wilde

Investors know the price of everything but the value of nothing.

Author Unknown

I therapy, you have to accept a mistake to move on.  At times, this realization will be painful but in the end it is better for you.  Right now Wall Street is in complete denial and trying to pretend all is well.  Their profits are up but all that is happening is a wealth transfer from taxpayers to this unproductive group.

Jim Quinn - Burning Platform
Never have so few, done so little, and made so much, while screwing so many.

Mobs, Messiahs and Markets
“On the Forbes list of rich people, you will find hedge fund managers in droves, but no one who made his money as a hedge fund client.”


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

TUESDAY

08-31-10

AUGUST
S M T W T F S
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31        

ARCHIVAL


TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
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32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 

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Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

   

 

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