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The defining book for the current

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Gordon T Long

RESEARCH ANALYTICS for the GLOBAL MACRO

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Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

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Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

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Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

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SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

SLIDE REFERENCE PAGE: Shadow Banking

 

The news rocked the global gold market when an almost obscure line item in the back of a 216 page document released by an equally obscure organization was recently unearthed. Thrust into the unwanted glare of the spotlight, the little publicized Bank of International Settlements (BIS) is discovered to have accepted 349 metric tons of gold in a $14B swap. Why? With whom? For what duration? How long has this been going on? This raises many questions and as usual with all $617T of murky unregulated swaps, we are given zero answers. It is none of our business!

Considering the US taxpayer is bearing the burden of $13T in lending, spending and guarantees for the financial crisis, and an additional $600B of swaps from the US Federal Reserve to stem the European Sovereign Debt crisis, some feel that more transparency is merited. It is particularly disconcerting, since the crisis was a direct result of unsound banking practices and possibly even felonious behavior. The arrogance and lack of public accountability of the entire banking industry blatantly demonstrates why gold manipulation, which came to the fore in recent CFTC hearings, has been able to operate so effectively for so long. It operates above the law or more specifically above sovereign law in the un-policed off-shore, off-balance sheet zone of international waters.

Since President Richard Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971, transparency regarding anything to do with gold sales, leasing, storage or swaps is as tightly guarded by governments as the unaudited gold holdings of Fort Knox. Before we delve into answering what this swap may be all about and what it possibly means to gold investors, we need to start with the most obvious question and one that few seem to ask. Who is this Bank of International Settlements and who controls it?

READ MORE

 

 

EXTEND & PRETEND: Stage I Comes

to an End!


The Dog Ate my Report Card

 

Both came to an end at the same time: the administration’s policy to Extend & Pretend has run out of time as has the patience of the US electorate with the government’s Keynesian economic policy responses. Desperate last gasp attempts are to be fully expected, but any chance of success is rapidly diminishing.

Before we can identify what needs to be done, what the administration is likely to do and how we can preserve and protect our wealth through it, we need to first determine where we are going wrong. Surprisingly, no one has assessed the results of the American Recovery & Reinvestment Act 2009 (ARRA) which was this administration’s cornerstone program to place the US back on the post financial crisis road to recovery.

We can safely conclude either:

1-    The administration completely under estimated the extent of the economic crisis, even though we were well into it when the ARRA was introduced.

2-    The administration was unable to secure the actually required stimulus amount which was likely four to five times that approved.

3-    The administration failed to implement the program in a timely manner.

4-    The administration failed to diagnose the problem correctly and that in fact it is a structural problem versus a cyclical and liquidity problem, as they still insist it to be.

I personally believe it is all four of the above.

READ MORE

 

POPULAR ARTICLES:

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

EXTEND & PRETEND - Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

EXTEND & PRETEND: A Guide to the Road Ahead


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

1

         

SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS

EU BANKING CRISIS
BOND BUBBLE

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
BANKING CRISIS II
RISK REVERSAL

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

CREDIT CONTRACTION II

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
US FISCAL IMBALANCES
PENSION CRISIS
CHINA BUBBLE

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

Last Update: 07/28/2010 03:57 AM

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge

 

 

POSTS:   TUESDAY 07-27-10

 

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

IRAN

 

ISRAEL

 

KOREA 

 

SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

 

GREECE

 

SPAIN / PORTUGAL

 

FRANCE

 

GERMANY

 

ITALY

 

UK

 

DUBAI

Abu Dhabi Feels Dubai Chill as Emirate Accepts Money Is Scarcer BL

  

JAPAN

 

CHINA

 

USA

Economists dispute effect of US stimulus  FT

 

After Expectations A Modest Improvement, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Crashes To -21, From -4 Prior, Exp. Of -2.5  ZH

 

Confirmed- U.S. Fiscal Woe Is Worse Than Greece

Reading the annual Long Term Budget Outlook by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has become an increasingly depressing experience in recent years. This year seems even more so than ever.

The latest projection puts the federal debt rising to 62% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the end of the year (from 40% pre-crisis), the highest percentage since just after World War. (See Graph)

Despite the gloomy projections, many economists seem to agree that a Greek style debt crisis is unlikely to take place in the U.S. due to the size of the economy, the single currency structure and dollar prestige.  After all, Greek debt totals 120% of GDP--twice the US figure--plus a comparison of the long-term bond yield, seem to suggest that the U.S. is in much better fiscal shape.  Or do they?

In a Financial Times op-ed dated July 25, Laurence Kotlikoff, economics professor at Boston University, contends due to the “labeling problem”--governments can describe receipts and payments in any way they like--we are essentially “in a fiscal wonderland of measurement without meaning.”

Kotlikoff believes a better benchmark of fiscal fitness is the fiscal gap, or the present value difference between all future expenditures and receipts. His calculations reveal Greece future expenditure at 11.5% of the value of future GDP, after incorporating the new austerity measures.

The US figure, based on the CBO projections--12.2%--is worse than that of Greece, but not by too much.

However, Kotlikoff says the U.S. is in much worse shape than the 12.2% figure suggests, because the CBO’s projections assume “a 7.2% of GDP belt-tightening by 2020,” with "highly speculative” assumptions, such as a substantial rise in tax receipts and wage growth.

A separate analysis by the New York Times also put the U.S. debt--measured by medium term deficit as a percentage of GDP--higher than that of Greece. (See chart)  Furthermore, in a roundabout way, Kotlikoff and Da Gong, the largest credit rating agency in China, seem to be in agreement as to the fiscal position of the United States; although many have dismissed Da Gong’s objectivity when it downgraded the U.S. from AAA to AA.

Will America have a Greek style debt crisis? Probably not, given the country’s resources and resilience.
However, it is a matter of political will to make tough choices between strategic vs. tactical spending and taking necessary measures to put the fiscal house in order.

With the current bond market willing to overlook debt for an economic recovery, tactical spending should take priority in order to give more immediate boost to jobs and to sustain a tepid recovery. Cramming strategic spending during a recession, as with the first stimulus, most likely will only saddle the nation with more debt while impeding growth and recovery.

Meanwhile, the current trajectory would suggest a different kind of debt crisis could manifest sooner or later, and over-confidence, a "Too-Big-To-Fail” mentality some of the nation's leaders seem to have adopted, will only lead to a dangerous path of no return.

Dian L. Chu, July 26, 2010

 

EU BANKING CRISIS

 

Jim Rogers: Stress Test Is a PR Exercise CNBC

Not Realistic, Roubini Says
JPMorgan Shreds The Stress Tests, Says 54 Banks Should Have Failed BInside
Latest Big Mac index suggests the euro is still overvalued Economist 

Euro Bears Vanish

 

German DZ, WGZ Banks Confirm They Only Passed Stress BS Due To "Mark To Maturity" Loophole  ZH

 

 

Deutsche Bank yields over sovereign holdings  FT

Debate rages about effect of government spending

 

BOND BUBBLE

 

US Inc plays on caution to issue bonds  FT

Low cost of borrowing spurs companies to issue more debt

 

On the Cusp of a Global Bond Hiccup  ZH

 

GMO's James Montier On The Rise Of The Aust(e)rians- "Any Deflationist Victory Would Result In The Rapid Arrival Of QE2"  ZH

 

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

US recovery elusive amid fiscal gaps  FT

States face further deficits as federal stimulus ends

US state deficits  FT

US states’ budget crises  FT

 

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 

 

HUNGARY

 

BANKING CRISIS II

 

 Basel bank plans eased after heavy lobbying Reuters

Bank regulators reach deal on liquidity  FT

 

Basel Committee Softens Bank Capital Rules, Sets Leverage Cap BL

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision softened some of its proposed capital and liquidity rules while introducing new restrictions on how much lenders can borrow in order to rein in their risk-taking.

Applying A Basel III Tier 1 Stress Test Threshold Implies E2.6 Trillion Of Assets In 39 Banks Impaired By Equity Undercapitalization  ZH

 

Basel III Gutted, Delayed As Even Existing Regulatory Regime Too Burdensome For An Insolvent Banking Industry  ZH
In light of recent bombastic statements by priests of Keynesian fundamentalism that European banking is one big, non-dysfunctional, even healthy family, it would have been the logical thing that the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision would if not tighten terms on proposed Basel III implementation, then at least keep them as is. Why is why news that the recently proposed adjustments to Basel III which not only delayed implementation of the "regulatory" framework by many years, allowing banks sufficient time to blow themselves up under thecurrent regime, but also to soften liquidity requirements of all global banks, is merely an indication that global regulators realize that the last free for all, in which every bank is allowed to steal as much as it possibly can before all hell breaks loose, in many times with as little as a penny in the mythical risk reserve concept known as Tier 1 Capital, levered a few hundred billion times, is finally here. And yes, aside from the fact that even the existing massively lax regulatory rules of Basel II need to be toned down is irrelevant: all European banks are healthydammit, and just like in the US, bank failures will continue until credibility returns.

ANALYSIS OF BASEL III INCLUDED

 

 

 

DODD FRANK ACT

 

RATING AGENCIES

 

RISK REVERSAL

 

 

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

RRESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Second Housing Crisis? Another $1T in Mortgages Backed by Taxpayers FOX

 

New Home Sales Up, but Sales remain Slow AP PDF

 

Atrocious New Homes Sales Data

So June new home sales come in at 330,000 on expectations of 310,000: a decent beat by 20k or so, and a "record" increase from the May revised 267k. However, this "beat", and massive 23.6% MoM surge only occurred due to prior downward (of course) revision which took away 57k from the past two months! The May number was revised down from 300k, or by 33k, to the lowest sales number on record of 267k. And April, not to be undone, two months after the initial release, has received its second downward adjustment, this time down by 24k from 446k to 422k. So let's get this straight: this was the worst June on record, following the worst month on record in new home sales ever, the beat was completely drowned out by 57k worth of prior revisions, the average new home price slid another 1.4% to $213,400, yet just because the new home supply is down to "just" 7.6 month from 9.6 in May it is enough to push stocks to the moon (of course this completely ignores that existing homes sales are back to 9 months, and shadow inventory is more than double that. Who cares - machine language does not add, it only multiples). Another day, another insane day in stocks, which are now programmed toignore reality, and just focus on the propaganda headline spin.

Report- Foreclosures Reduce Home Values by 27%  WSJ

 

Supply of Homes Set to Grow  WSJ

Sales of new homes are near 47-year lows, yet the supply of new and existing homes is expected to grow in the months ahead as construction ramps up and a wave of foreclosed homes hits the market.

In June, new-home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 330,000 units, the Commerce Department said Monday. While that was up 23.6% from the all-time low of 267,000 in May, the June figures were the second lowest on record.

 

EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM/font>

 

 

PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

 

Why Is US Employment So Weak? Berner
United Technologies to cut another 1,500 job cuts AP

GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 

Official: BP CEO Hayward to Step Down in October AP

 

Hayward to be offered BP Russia job  FT

BP breaks the mould to shape brighter future  FT

BP gets an American accent  FT

 

Hayward's end just first step for BP  FT

 

BP Spill Costs Rile Gulf Towns Shut Out of $20 Billion Fund  BL

 

 

 



 

OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

Credit Card Fees Transfer Wealth to Rich: Study Reuters

MAP OF THE DAY- Another Decade Of Summers Like This Will Devastate American Agriculture  BI

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

MARKET WARNINGS

Stock Short Sales at 2-Year Low, Data Explorers Says BL

 

Crawford calls 'Cardinal Climax' Brimelow

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Is "all hell" about to break loose? One veteran letter thinks so -- and it predicted the Crash of 2008.

Unlike almost everyone else, Arch Crawford's Crawford Perspectives had a fabulous 2008. ( See Jan. 9, 2009, column.) And when I last checked in with it in early 2010, Crawford was predicting a mid-summer massacre ( See Jan. 14 column.)

Now, in its monthly issue published in early July, Crawford predicts "ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE" -- beginning, as a matter of fact, on Monday July 26, 2010. Crawford means it. The letter has been 200% short since June 7, with stops at 11,466 on the Dow Jones Industrial Averag

Well, the problem is that Crawford is an astrology letter. This sends many readers (and some editors) into foaming fits. My impeccably scientific attitude: We should just look at its results.

But the opening of Crawford's July issue is definitely the sort of thing that upsets people: "NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE JULY! We mean, of course, the planetary pictures in the sky which are developing towards the tightest harmonic alignments in the most potent areas of the zodiacal circle ever recorded in Earth's written history. These portend increasing and maximizing intensity and rapidity of 'change' on every level of existence: mineral, vegetable, animal, human and spirit. Will Capitalism survive? Will Democracy survive? Will our markets survive? Will governments survive? Will humanity survive? Will Earth survive?

"We don't know, but we'll be SHORT for it!"

Crawford -- along with other astrologers, who however are merely worried about nuclear war, the end of the world etc. -- is impressed with an imminent unusual alignment that apparently involves five key planets.

He writes: "Astrologers call it the 'Cardinal Climax.' It is considered to be the most powerful and important planetary alignment of the modern era. Perhaps it heralds the beginning of the real 'Aquarian Age' or the end of the 'Mayan Calendar.' (After all, what's a few months in a 25,600-year cycle?) These energies actually maximize from July 30 through August 3. There have been 'shadows' preceding and will be echoes afterwards for quite some time." Crawford adds: "This huge alignment will be followed by a Full Moon on the Fall Equinox and a Lunar Eclipse on the Winter Solstice. We expect the depth and scope of dislocations during this period to exceed anything we have ever witnessed, both in otherwise civilized interaction among nations, and likely our fill in natural disasters."

"We continue to recommend extreme caution and proper emergency measures such as extra food, water, medicines and cash over the next 24 months in particular. Do NOT wait any longer!!"

Let the record, show, however, that Crawford's last issue also repeatedly allowed for what it described as "some attempts to correct an oversold market sometime in July."

What are Crawford's results? Over the year to date through June, the letter is down 0.4% by Hulbert Financial Digest count, definitely better than the negative 5.8% of the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index.

Crawford did underperform the market in 2009. ( See Dec. 24, 2009, column.) But even so, over the past three years the letter is up 9.42% annualized versus negative 9.36% annualized for the total return Wilshire 5000. Over the many years that it has been followed by Hulbert, Crawford's record has been checkered but interspersed with occasional bursts of eerie prescience. Which is it this time?

Crawford Perspectives usually publishes on the first Monday of each month. But its next issue is delayed until August 9 -- possibly to save mailing costs if the world ends

 

Marc Faber- Relax, This Will Hurt A Lot  ZH

From 70% To 35% To 75% Net Long In Under A Month- Ultra High Frequency Day Trader Extraordinaire Barton Biggs Flip Flops... Again... And Again  ZH

 

 

GOLD MANIPULATION

 

 

VIDEO TO WATCH

 

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK
In a Financial Times op-ed dated July 25, 
Laurence Kotlikoff, economics professor at Boston University

"Due to the “labeling problem”--governments can describe receipts and payments in any way they like--we are essentially “in a fiscal wonderland of measurement without meaning.”

 


ZH - Zero Hedge - Business Insider, WSJ - Wall Street Journal, BL - Bloomberg, FT - Financial Times

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

TUESDAY

07-27-10

JULY
S M T W T F S
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4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31

ARCHIVAL

SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS

EU BANKING CRISIS
BOND BUBBLE

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
BANKING CRISIS II
RISK REVERSAL

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

CREDIT CONTRACTION II

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
US FISCAL IMBALANCES
PENSION CRISIS
CHINA BUBBLE
CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT
INTEREST PAYMENTS
US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
US RESERVE CURRENCY.
GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE
SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
RETAIL SALES
CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES
US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
OIL PRICE PRESSURES
FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
PANDEMIC
US$ RESERVE CURRENCY
TERRORIST EVENT
NATURAL DISASTER

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.