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The defining book for the current

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Gordon T Long

RESEARCH ANALYTICS for the GLOBAL MACRO

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Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

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Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

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EXTEND & PRETEND: Stage I Comes to an End!

The Dog Ate my Report Card

 

Both came to an end at the same time: the administration’s policy to Extend & Pretend has run out of time as has the patience of the US electorate with the government’s Keynesian economic policy responses. Desperate last gasp attempts are to be fully expected, but any chance of success is rapidly diminishing.

Before we can identify what needs to be done, what the administration is likely to do and how we can preserve and protect our wealth through it, we need to first determine where we are going wrong. Surprisingly, no one has assessed the results of the American Recovery & Reinvestment Act 2009 (ARRA) which was this administration’s cornerstone program to place the US back on the post financial crisis road to recovery.

We can safely conclude either:

1-    The administration completely under estimated the extent of the economic crisis, even though we were well into it when the ARRA was introduced.

2-    The administration was unable to secure the actually required stimulus amount which was likely 4-5 times that approved.

3-    The administration failed to implement the program in a timely manner.

4-    The administration failed to diagnose the problem correctly and that in fact it is a structural problem versus a cyclical and liquidity problem, as they still insist it to be.

I personally believe it is all four of the above.

READ MORE

 

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

As horrific as the gulf environmental catastrophe is, an even more intractable and cataclysmic disaster may be looming. The yet unknowable costs associated with clean-up, litigation and compensation damages due to arguably the world’s worst environmental tragedy, may be in the process of triggering a credit event by British Petroleum (BP) that will be equally devastating to global over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives. The potential contagion may eventually show that Lehman Bros. and Bear Stearns were simply early warning signals of the devastation lurking and continuing to grow unchecked in the $615T OTC Derivatives market.

 

What is yet unknowable is what the reality is of BP’s off-balance sheet obligations and leverage positions. How many Special Purpose Entities (SPEs) is it operating? Remember, during the Enron debacle Andrew Fastow, the Enron CFO, asserted in testimony nearly 10 years ago that GE had 2500 such entities already in existence. BP has even more physical assets than Enron and GE. Furthermore, no one knows the true size of BP’s OTC derivative contracts such as Interest Rate Swaps and Currency Swaps. Only the major international banks have visibility to what the collateral obligations associated with these instruments are, their credit trigger events and who the counter parties are. They are obviously not talking, but as I will explain, they are aggressively repositioning trillions of dollars in global currency, swap, derivative, options, debt and equity portfolios.

 

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READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

1

         

SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS

EU BANKING CRISIS
BOND BUBBLE

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
BANKING CRISIS II
RISK REVERSAL

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

CREDIT CONTRACTION II

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
US FISCAL IMBALANCES
PENSION CRISIS
CHINA BUBBLE

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

Last Update: 07/13/2010 06:19 PM

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

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POSTS:   TUESDAY 07-13-10

 

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

IRAN

 

ISRAEL

 

KOREA 

 

Castro suggests US  responsible for sinking of South Korean Ship

Fidel Castro video: Former president back on Cuban TV

Van Hoisington- "Has The Recession Really Ended-" BBC

 

SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

 

GREECE

 

ITALY

Retail Sales Plunge In Italy On Surging Unemployment And Lack Of Confidence- Example Of What US Looks Like Absent Stimulus  ZH

 

SPAIN / PORTUGAL

Moody's Downgrades Portuguese Sovereign Debt, Euro Tanks  BI

Moody's Downgrades Portugal  WSJ

Moody's cut Portugal's sovereign-debt rating by two notches to A1 with a stable outlook, citing the government's weakening financial strength and meager economic growth prospects.

 BIS gold swap signifies a threat to Europe - It it Portugal?   Gata

China’s €1bn vote of confidence in Spanish bonds FT

 

FRANCE

 

GERMANY

Deutschland uber alles does not mean a trickledown recovery in EMU Pritchard
Germany is benefiting from a currency that is as misaligned as China's yuan, though this mercantilist advantage is disguised within Europe's monetary union. Crudely, Germany is doing to Spain, Italy, and increasingly France, what China has been doing to the rest of the world – but more so – by holding down its exchange rate

We now have an untenable socio-strategic situation in which German unemployment has been falling for 12 months in a row to 7.5pc, while Spain's unemployment has vaulted upwards to just under 20pc. This immense gap – with everything it implies about the state of a society – has surfaced in little over two years.

The delayed effect of German wage discipline over the years has at last hit EMU with volcanic force. The same time-lag is underway in Spain with opposite effect as the property slump grinds deeper.

EFSF- Germany's Plan Is Sovereign Default NOT Bailout  ZH

Berlin Pushing For European Bankruptcy Framework With Provision For State Sovereignty Give Up  ZH

 

 

UK

Call for UK bankers to self-regulate pay  FT

Policy recycled as austerity prevails  FT

Rare Dose Of Reality From The UK- BOE's Adam Posen Says Chance UK Could Slip Into Recession ZH

 

JAPAN

 

CHINA

China Rocked As Government Prepares To Slam The Beleaguered Property Market  BI

Shanghai Falls, And World Market Rally Stalls, As Beijing Insists On Ongoing Loan Curbs  BI

 

 

USA

Niall Ferguson: A U.S. debt crisis is on its way TTicker

Van Hoisington- "Has The Recession Really Ended 
John Mauldin
 


EU BANKING CRISIS

 

European Banks Poised to Win Reprieve on Capital Rules  BL

European banks, rattled by investor uncertainty about their ability to withstand a sovereign-debt crisis, are poised to win a reprieve in Basel, Switzerland, this week as regulators from 27 countries shape new capital rules.

 

ECB's bond purchases slow sharply  FT

EU Officials Want Banks to Seek Private Cash Before State Help  BI

 

 

BOND BUBBLEBOND BUBBLE

 

Who's Buying All That Debt-  James Hamilton, Econbrowser VIA  BI

I've been taking a look at what happened to the demand for U.S. Treasury bills and bonds as a result of the financial crisis. Here's a summary of some of the data that I found interesting.

The Federal Reserve publishes flow of funds accounts that include estimates of who has been holding the debt issued by the U.S. Treasury at different points in time. Here's a pie chart showing the breakdown as of the end of 2007. At that time, almost half of the U.S. Treasury debt was owed to people or institutions outside the United States. The Federal Reserve and state and local governments held another quarter.

Pension funds (combined private and federal, state and local government), mutual funds, and money market funds held another 15%. U.S. households played a very minor role in lending to the U.S. government, with holdings of only about 5% of the total debt.

U.S. Treasury securities held by different sectors as of December 31, 2007. Data source: Flow of Funds, Table L.209.

treas_debt_07.gif
In the two years since then, U.S. Treasury debt has increased more than 50%. The chart below summarizes who bought all that new debt. Foreigners bought more than half of the net new debt issuance.

But the Federal Reserve and state and local governments have barely increased their holdings of Treasury debt at all, meaning that other sectors significantly increased their share. In particular, money market and mutual funds increased their holdings of Treasury debt by 85% over the last two years. Banks increased their holdings by 146%, and households by 143%.

Change in holdings of U.S. Treasury securities between December 31, 2007 and December 31, 2009. Data source: Flow of Funds, Table L.209.

treas_debt_07_09.gif
The biggest single factor in that willingness of foreigners, mutual funds, banks, and households to increase their holdings of Treasury securities is a flight to quality-- people wanted out of risky assets and into something they regarded as safe. But, unless financial conditions deteriorate further, I wonder why there would be a similar increase in demand for Treasury debt over the next two years. And, if things ever improve, one would expect some of those holdings to move back into higher-paying assets.

So I can see who bought the $2.7 trillion in net new Treasury debt issued between 2007 and 2009. What I'm having more trouble seeing is who is going to buy the additional $8 trillion in net new debt that would be issued over the next decade under the CBO's alternative fiscal scenario.

 

A Little Too Sweet Barron’s
High-risk corporate-bond investors are being paid almost 300 basis points over what junk bonds historically have paid; that number alone is something to worry about.

Based on historical trends going back to 1997, a default rate of 2.03% would correlate with a spread of high-yield bonds over Treasuries of 417 basis points. (While that time period is relatively short, it included the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management debacle, the tech-telecom collapse early last decade and, of course, the mortgage crisis begun in 2007 and near-meltdown of 2008.)

The actual spread is 710 basis points, 293 more than historical experience would imply, meaning junk-bond investors are being much more highly compensated for default risk than usual. The record for such a gap was 366 basis points, in June 1999.

Put in historical perspective, Fridson writes, the current quarterly default rate was similar back in June 1997. At that time, junk investors accepted a yield spread of just 267 basis points, or 156 basis points less than the historical model indicated.

Optimism ran high at the time—too high, he observes. By contrast, big worries, about a double-dip, sovereign-debt and looming junk bonds maturing in 2012 and beyond, now hang over the market. There is always something to worry about, Fridson notes. But getting paid almost 300 basis points over what the junk-default rate implies is very rare, he concludes. 

 

Why 4.0% Fixed Rate Bonds Could Solve the Financial Crisis

 

consumer price index
 
Even though there are numerous ways one can evaluate Exhibit 1.0, I feel the following best describes what the Exhibit is really telling us.

First, it tells us that the value of money in the United States varied quite significantly during the period that encompassed Two World Wars and a Great Depression (i.e., between 1910-1950).  During the first forty-year period shown on Exhibit 1.0, the value of money in the United States changed “wildly” (with significant percentage changes) almost every year in terms that reflected both inflation and deflation.

Second, since 1950 (for the last sixty years) Exhibit 1.0 tells us that periods of deflation have rarely occurred and when they did, it was only by a very small amount and only for a very short period. 
Third, outside of the fifteen year period (1968-1983) when the average change in the CPI index was 7.32%, inflation has averaged only 2.64% for 45 of the last 60 years as represented by (1950-1968 and 1983-2010). 

Now the heart of my argument for the 4.0% solution is that the above history should give the U.S. confidence that we can manage inflation at/near/or below 3.0% in our long term future.  My claim is that it is entirely valid to look at the near 100-year period of CPI change as shown in Exhibit 1.0 as happening in four distinct periods: (1) the crazy world period, 1913-1950; (2) a post-war, U.S. dominant period, 1950-1968; (3) a readjustment period for the U.S., 1968-1982; and (4) a Globalization period which has been primarily led by U.S. business, 1983-2010.

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Another Take on Munis as the Next Big Short    DollarCollapse

Guess where we have a market that is:

(1) leveraged and opaque, that is

(2) very big and tied to the credit markets; and is

(3) viewed by investors as being diversifiable by holding a geographically broad-based portfolio; with

(4) huge portfolios where assets and liabilities are apparently matched; and with

(5) questionable analysis by rating agencies; and where

(6) there are many entities, entities that may not approach default with business-like dispatch, and that have already mortgaged sources of revenue that are thought to support their liabilities?

Answer: The municipal market.

 

Just as homeowners took their income and locked it up via secondary loans, much of the tax base for municipalities is already mortgaged, through the sale of tax-related revenues streams like tolls and parking fees. Indeed, although general obligation bonds are considered the cream of the crop, they might just as well be regarded as the residual claim after anything with solid fee streams has been sold off.  Once a few municipalities default, there is a risk of a widespread cascade in defaults because the opprobrium will be lessened, all the more so if the defaults are spurred along by a taxpayer revolt – democracy at work.

 

A stealthy monetization such as buying new municipal bond issuances will both satisfy Obama’s political desires to fund unions and the FED’s desire to increase liquidity and keep interest rates down.


18 Cities Whose Suburbs Are Rapidly Turning Into Slums  BI


CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 

 

HUNGARY

 

BANKING CRISIS III

 

Crisis Awaits World’s Banks as Trillions Come Due  NY Times
A study in November by Moody’s Investors Service found that new bond issues by banks during the past five years matured in an average of 4.7 years — the shortest average in 30 years.

 

 

 

DODD FRANK ACT

Wall St reform proposal wins key support  FT

Legislation has enough votes to pass Senate

 

RATING AGENCIESRATING AGENCIES

 

RISK REVERSAL

 

 

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

RRESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

 

EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

 


GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

BBP - British Petroleum

 




 

OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

Scientific Proof That High Frequency Trading Induces Adverse Changes In Market Microstructure And Dynamics, And Puts Market Fairness Under Question  ZH
In a research paper by Reginald Smith of the Bouchet Franklin Institute in Rochester titled "Is high-frequency trading inducing changes in market microstructure and dynamics?" the author finds that he "can clearly demonstrate that HFT is having an increasingly large impact on the microstructure of equity trading dynamics. Traded value, and by extension trading volume, fluctuations are starting to show self-similarity at increasingly shorter timescales. Values which were once only present on the orders of several hours or days are now commonplace in the timescale of  seconds or minutes. It is important that the trading algorithms of HFT traders, as well as those who seek to understand, improve, or regulate HFT realize that the overall structure of trading is influenced in a measurable manner by HFT and that Gaussian noise  models of short term trading volume fluctuations likely are increasingly inapplicable." In other words, the author finds ample evidence that during the past decade (on the NASDAQ) and especially since the 2005 revision of Reg NMS (on the NYSE), stock trading increasingly demonstrates "self similar" fractal patterns, resulting in volatility surges, recursive feedback loops, and a market structure which is increasingly becoming a product of the actual trading mechanism. In the process, as demonstrated by a Hurst Exponent gravitating increasingly further away from 0.5 (i.e., Brown Noise territory), the Markov Process nature of stock trading is put under question, and thus the whole premise of an efficient market has to be reevaluated. Simply said: HFT has been shown to affect the fairness of trading.

 

MARKET WARNINGS

Entire Market Rally Engineered On Volume Fumes  ZH

For those who doubt the validity of the market rally, the chart below should justify their concern. The entire rally, commencing with the test of 1,000 in ES a week ago, through today has occurred on irrelevant volume. Compare the accumulation volume in the downward channel from 1,120 through July 5, and then compare to the volume on the upswing which has cut more than half the drop's losses. And somehow the shorts get scared to cover all positions in this manipulated no-volume rally.

And another way to demonstrate today's ghastly market participation, only April 5 and 6, and the first week of January posted lower volume than the broad ETF did today.

 

Is The Market Experiencing A Slow Motion Crash-  ZH
Once again a powerful “outside force” intervened to stop prices from collapsing. Folks, these aren't natural, free-flowing markets we're dealing with here. If they were, then the market would more than likely have crashed to the July 2009 lows by now. As much as “they” may try to prevent a collapse to the July or March 2009 lows, “they” will more than likely fail to prevent such a crash from happening. In fact, a crash is now happening but in very slow motion. How do we know? Because the 50-day moving average has pierced the 200 DMA and the dreaded black cross is now taking place on the DJIA and the S&P 500. It will soon take place on the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000. We mentioned in a recent note that often times during the “death cross” a final rally takes place. That rally happens because prices have already fallen hard and are often due for an oversold bounce. We believe this is that final rally before we see waves of selling and total capitulation take place. When you see the VIX cross 50 then you'll know that we've just entered the capitulation phase. If we're correct, and we hope we're not, then we may see intense levels of fear like that of 1929, 1987, and 2008.

Our best guess is that we either saw the highs on Friday or we will sometime early this week. We say this because prices are rising right into the eye of this market storm. The “eye of the storm” is the rapidly declining 50 DMA, the 200-day moving average ceiling, the downtrend line from our April 30 "sell call" (subscription required) and the 6/21 area of resistance. If the bulls, with the helping hand of the plunge protection team, can get through all of that overhead resistance, then you'll know that this storm has safely passed. Only then will we consider entering any new ETF positions in the program. Until then, we're staying 100% cash to avoid any damage from this phase of the global financial hurricane but will be ready to alert you once we get a fresh, tradable signal.

 

 

GOLD MANIPULATION

Secret gold swap has spooked the market Telegraph

The day after original reports about the swaps, BIS emailed a statement saying that the swaps had not been conducted with monetary authorities but purely with commercial banks.

This did nothing to quell the sense of mystery surrounding the deal or deals. It is almost inconceivable that a single commercial bank could have accumulated so much gold alone. And cynics have suggested that the whole affair still looks like a secretive European bailout that a single country wants to keep quiet.

 BIS gold swap signifies a threat to Europe- Not Gold   Gata

VIDEO TO WATCH

 

 

 

INTERESTING ARTICLES - GENERAL

The Pile Of Cash That Everyone Wants To See Gone

Corporate America's large, un-spent cash-horde has become the latest obsession among economists and other pundits.  In theory, corporate America has plenty of dry power, but as The Big Picture has pointed out, there's little compelling reason for corporate America to invest when there's so much slack and unused capacity in the system. Add in general unease, and you can see why the system is so stuck. Now come up with a solution for what to do with the cash, and we might be able to get things going without more stimulus.

 

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEKQUOTE OF THE WEEK

 
The ECB is barely on speaking terms with the IMF

 IMF - "Inflation Maximizing Fund"

as it was dubbed in a Bundesbank memo.

From:

Deutschland uber alles does not mean a trickledown recovery in EMU Pritchard

 


ZH - Zero Hedge - Business Insider, WSJ - Wall Street Journal, BL - Bloomberg, FT - Financial Times

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

TUESDAY

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ARCHIVAL

SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS

EU BANKING CRISIS
BOND BUBBLE

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
BANKING CRISIS II
RISK REVERSAL

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

CREDIT CONTRACTION II

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
US FISCAL IMBALANCES
PENSION CRISIS
CHINA BUBBLE
CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT
INTEREST PAYMENTS
US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
US RESERVE CURRENCY.
GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE
SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
RETAIL SALES
CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES
US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
OIL PRICE PRESSURES
FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
PANDEMIC
US$ RESERVE CURRENCY
TERRORIST EVENT
NATURAL DISASTER

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.