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The defining book for the current

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Gordon T Long

RESEARCH ANALYTICS for the GLOBAL MACRO

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SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

As horrific as the gulf environmental catastrophe is, an even more intractable and cataclysmic disaster may be looming. The yet unknowable costs associated with clean-up, litigation and compensation damages due to arguably the world’s worst environmental tragedy, may be in the process of triggering a credit event by British Petroleum (BP) that will be equally devastating to global over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives. The potential contagion may eventually show that Lehman Bros. and Bear Stearns were simply early warning signals of the devastation lurking and continuing to grow unchecked in the $615T OTC Derivatives market.

 

What is yet unknowable is what the reality is of BP’s off-balance sheet obligations and leverage positions. How many Special Purpose Entities (SPEs) is it operating? Remember, during the Enron debacle Andrew Fastow, the Enron CFO, asserted in testimony nearly 10 years ago that GE had 2500 such entities already in existence. BP has even more physical assets than Enron and GE. Furthermore, no one knows the true size of BP’s OTC derivative contracts such as Interest Rate Swaps and Currency Swaps. Only the major international banks have visibility to what the collateral obligations associated with these instruments are, their credit trigger events and who the counter parties are. They are obviously not talking, but as I will explain, they are aggressively repositioning trillions of dollars in global currency, swap, derivative, options, debt and equity portfolios.

 

READ MORE

 

 

EXTEND & PRETEND: A Matter of National Security

 

There is something seriously wrong in America. We all sense it, but few in the mainstream media are willing to touch it or can effectively articulate it within the public’s sound-bite oriented attention span.

 

It isn’t just about the remnants of the financial crisis; it isn’t the protracted jobs recession and slow recovery; it isn’t the trillions of dollars in deficit spending; it isn’t the degree of rampant financial malfeasants. It is something deeper which reaches into the soul of who we are as a people and society. It will soon be the central theme to your investment strategy and financial security.

 

On the surface it might appear we have lost our optimism about the future and our confidence that America is still the ‘beacon on the hill’ that countries around the world admire and look to for leadership. Though our children mouth the platitudes taught by older generations, they ring hollow in the hallways with video surveillance, motion detectors and metal detectors when recited by them. The high minded ideals seem misplaced in unemployment lines where they stand with freshly minted advanced degrees in hand, huge education debts and little hope other than the faint possibility of a non-paying internship position.

 

It isn’t that the American people have changed. Our government has changed.

 

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1

         

SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS

EU BANKING CRISIS
BOND BUBBLE

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
BANKING CRISIS II
RISK REVERSAL

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

CREDIT CONTRACTION II

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
US FISCAL IMBALANCES
PENSION CRISIS
CHINA BUBBLE

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

Last Update: 07/03/2010 04:28 AM

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

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POSTS:   FRIDAY 07-02-10

 

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

IRAN

U.S. Adds Its Own Iran Sanctions  WSJ

 

ISRAEL

Israel and Turkey hold secret talks  FT

 

KOREA 

 

SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

Fears mount over slowing global demand  FT

 

GREECE

 

ITALY

 

SPAIN / PORTUGAL

 

FRANCE

EU's 'Opposite Twins' Clash Over Future  WSJ

France and Germany are on different sides of crucial issues in Europe's debate over its economic future. The awkward personal chemistry between their leaders has complicated the two countries' relationship further.

French public debt hits 80% of GDP

 

GERMANY

Merkel's political woes punctures euphoria Telegraph
GE chief says Beijing growing hostile to multinationals

German banks expected to call on rescue fund  FT

 

UK

1.3 million Brits to lose jobs in 'Austerity Budget'  Telegraph  UK

Over a million people will lose their jobs due to the Government’s spending cuts over the next five years, a leaked document projects. George Osborne’s Budget last week said that there would be a net increase of 1.3m jobs by 2015 but the Chancellor did not mention the figures used to arrive at that conclusion. Last night, unpublished Treasury documents disclosed that officials had estimated 2.5m jobs would be created but that a total of 1.2m would be lost in the same period, the Guardian reported. Both the public and private sector are expected to be hit, the analysis concluded, with the losses narrowly greater in the private sector.

2.5M ABSURD
John Philpott, the chief economist at the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development, said: "There is not a hope in hell’s chance of this [increase] happening: there would have to be extraordinarily strong private sector employment growth in a much less conducive economic environment than it was during the boom."

Brendan Barber, the TUC’s general secretary, said: "It is absurd to think that the private sector will create 2.5m new jobs over the next five years." An extract from a Treasury presentation for Mr Osborne’s budget – seen by the Guardian – said: "100-120,000 public sector jobs and 120-140,000 private sector jobs assumed to be lost per annum for five years through cuts." Alistair Darling, the shadow chancellor, said: "George Osborne failed to tell the country there would be very substantial job losses as a result of his budget.

"Hundreds of thousands of people will pay the price for the poor judgement of the Conservatives, fully supported by the Liberal Democrats." A spokesman for the Treasury said: "The OBR forecast unemployment to fall in every year and employment to rise in every year."

 

JAPAN

 

CHINA

Immelt hits out at China and Obama  FT

GE chief gives vent to frustration over China  FT

US groups wary of China strikes record  FT

 

DUBAI WORLD

 

USA

Complete Guide To The Inevitable American Debt Default via PragCap

Budget Maneuvers Leave Huge Deficit  WSJ

Long-Term Budget Outlook- Anyone Still Laughing At Greece-  BI

 

The updated Long-Term Budget Outlook from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is out.

What a surprise, the previously optimistic forecasts by the US administration do not appear to come to fruition.

The CBO is hedging their bets now with what they call an "alternative fiscal scenario".

The budget outlook is much bleaker under the alternative fiscal scenario. Debt as a share of GDP would exceed its historical peak of 109 percent by 2025 and would reach 185 percent in 2035.

A very gloomy picture is starting to emerge, looking at the projections.

Long Term Budget Outlook

Source: Congressional Budget Office

We are not quite there yet, the current numbers are still somewhat better than other debt-ridden economies.

  USA   Greece

  External debt (as % of GDP): 96.5%
  Gross external debt: $13.77 trillion
(2009 Q3)
  2009 GDP (est): $14.26 trillion

  External debt (as % of GDP): 170.5%
  Gross external debt: $581.68 billion
  2009 GDP (est): $341 billion

Source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959/The_World_s_Biggest_Debtor_Nations

However, given the projections under the “alternative scenario”, should anyone still be laughing at Greece?

 

Unemployed dumping car leases  OC Register

The unemployed are walking away from their car leases in droves as more laid-off workers see their jobless benefits cut off, reports LeaseTrader.com. The company, which helps match up people who want out of their car leases with those looking for a shorter-term lease, said it expects to process 7.3% more listings in June from people whose unemployment benefits have ended or are about to end.

"Unemployment benefits have been keeping millions of Americans afloat since the recession began," said Sergio Stiberman, chief executive of LeaseTrader.com. "When the clock runs out on benefits, people still jobless look to find ways of further cutting their bills. The ability to transfer a car lease contract can save a person more than $500 each month while keeping their credit intact." The company said the majority of its lease listings are in California and other high-unemployment states including Florida, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan. California's unemployment was 12.4% in May, third highest in the nation.

LeaseTrader.com noted the surge in listings coincides with the failure by Congress to approve HB 4213, a bill that would allow extended unemployment benefits through November. One version of the bill was approved by the House just before Memorial Day, but it has gotten bogged down in the Senate in a disagreement over how to pay for the $100 billion cost.  Unemployment aid is just one of a host of issues included in the bill that have delayed its passage. The California Employment Development Department estimates more than 234,000 laid-off workers in this state alone have had their benefits cut off  since the last unemployment extension bill expired in early June.

 

 

EU BANKING CRISIS

 

Cash calls expected as Europe’s banks face tests  FT

Lenders told to set up emergency plans

German banks expected to call on rescue fund  FT

 

Europe's banks are still on 'life support', BIS warns Telegraph

 

BOND BUBBLE

 

Alphabet Soup PIMCO (Gross)

House Approves War Funding, State Aid After Obama Veto Threat  BL

Mortgage Rates on 30-Year U.S. Loans Fall to Record  BL

 

Mortgage Bonds Booming  WSJ
Investors are seeking out mortgage bonds backed by the U.S. government as a safe haven from the tumult of the global economy, a reversal of fortune that has helped drive mortgage rates for consumers to record lows.

 

Munis Underperform Treasuries as Default Speculation Mounts BL

 

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT/b>

 

Fiscal 2011 could be hardest yet for states Reuters

 

LA braces for pink slips Daily News


CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 

 

HUNGARY

 

BANKING CRISIS II

 

Fed Made Taxpayers Unwitting Junk-Bond Buyers BL
“Either the Fed did not understand the distressed state of some of the assets...or it understood that it was buying weak assets and attempted to obscure that fact”

 


DODD FRANK ACT

 

Companies Push for Clarity on Derivatives Regulation  WSJ
Democrats are trying to quell an outcry over a last-minute change to their financial-regulation overhaul that has sparked confusion over regulation of the giant derivatives market.

RATING AGENCIES

 

RISK REVERSAL

 

Bearish Sentiment at Highest Levels Since July 2009 BeSpoke

 

Gold Below $1,200 As Asset Liquidations Spread Like Wildfire  ZH

The European liquidations we discussed earlier courtesy of the ECB MRO and the repo rate spike, which resulted in a massive EURUSD covering squeeze, have followed through into industrial commodities such as oil and lastly into gold. And as liquidations are merely emblematic of a broken liquidity system (as the name implies), the unwind behind the scenes must be fierce. On the other hand, as the only recourse to prevent an all out systemic collapse should the deflationary trend continue, from Ben Bernanke's perspective, is just to print more money and thus solidify the position of the precious metal as undilutable and a currency which can not be backed with toxic MBS and Greek Sov Bonds, today's sell off is a much welcomed respite for the commodity which traded at record highs as recently as this week. Also, our recent disclosure of PM market manipulation via disclosed COMEX-OTC arbing by such former behemoths as AIG then (and presumably JPM now), should only add to your comfort that once the finger on the scales is removed, the natural reaction will be that of a coiled spring.

In the meantime, here is a one year gold price chart.

 

 

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

RRESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 
Not So Neighborly Associations Foreclosing On Homes NPR

 

EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM/b>

 

 

PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS

 

New proposal would push US retirement age to 70 for Social Security benefits


CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

 

Reversion To 10 Year Average Labor Force Participation Rate Implies 11.8% Unemployment Rate  ZH 

The only reason for the decline in the unemployment rate to 9.5% was yet another decline in the labor force participation rate, which according to the BLS dropped another 652k people in the month of June. This resulted in a labor force to the civilian non-institutional population ratio of 64.7%: the second lowest number in decades of data, and only better than December 2009, when this number was 64.6%. The problem with this is that it badly underestimates the split between those who are marginally attached and those 14,623 who were formally unemployed in June. As the chart below shows, the double dip in the labor force participation is now very much pronounced.

What this chart implies is that if there was a mean reversion to the last 10 year labor force participation average rate of 66.2%, there should be another 3.5 million jobless added to the 14.6 million tally. And as this differential is the easiest thing in the world for the BLS to fudge, adding the two and dividing by the labor force of 153,74, we get an unemployment rate of 11.8%, leaving aside all other such fudge factors are government hiring, temporary workers, birth death, etc. 9.5% or 11.8% - which one is more realistic for an economy finally realizing it never left the second great depression, you decide.

NFP Down 125,000, Unemployment Rate 9.5%, +83K Private Payrolls With +147K Birth Death, Workweek Down 0.1 Hours - Another Disappointment

 

Private payrolls were a disappointment at just +83k, versus consensus of 112k. Birth-death added 147k. Census removed 225k, in line with consensus. Temporary help was another terrific "green shoot" increasing by +21k. And the Unemployment rate dropped to 9.5% because 652k people walked out of the labor force, which dropped from 154.393 million to 153.741 million. Another big miss for the recovery story and another confirmation of the data point. The only improvement was the percentage of those unemployed 26 weeks and longer dropped from 46% to 45.5%, or from 6.763 million to 6.751 million. Yet the most troubling indicator was the downward inflection in the average workweek, which once again dropped by 0.1 hours to 34.1 hours, while in manufacturing the drop was a severe 0.5 hours, following a rise of 0.4 hours in May. The slack in the laborforce is once again building up. Also, average hourly earnings declined by 0.1%, after an increase of 0.2% in May.

From the PR:

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 125,000 in June, and the unemployment rate edged down to 9.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The decline in payroll employment reflected
a decrease (-225,000) in the number of temporary employees working on  census 2010. Private-sector payroll employment edged up by 83,000.

Total nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 125,000 in June, reflecting the departure of 225,000 temporary Census 2010 workers from federal government payrolls. Total private employment edged up over the month (+83,000) due to modest increases in several industries. So far this year, private-sector employment has increased by 593,000  but in June was 7.9 million below its December 2007 level.

In June, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hour to 34.1 hours. The manufacturing workweek for all employees decreased by 0.5 hour to 40.0 hours; this followed an increase of 0.4 hour in May. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.4 hours in June.

 

Unemployment Extension Narrowly Fails In Senate HP

 

Jobless Claims in U.S. Increased 13,000 Last Week to 472,000 BL
Jobless Claims Show U.S. Job Machine Sputtering in Recovery BL

Jobless Recoveries

 

Employment in U.S. Likely Dropped in June on Census Cutbacks  BL

 

 

GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

Fannie and Freddie are top Wall St customers  FT

 

 

CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

BBP - British Petroleum

 

Oil spill fund might not pay claims related to tourism USAT

 

Eagles and vulturesThe legal tide of effort to extract money from BP  FT

 

Severed Pipe, Hard Hats Seized by U.S. in BP Well Probe  BP

 

BP Criminal Case in Oil Spill May Be Inevitable, Analysts Say  BL

 

Vultures circle BP over fears its days are numbered in US  UK Guardian

 

 

 



 

OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE/b>

Scrap dollar as sole reserve currency: U.N. report Reuters  UN

Global Manufacturing Shows Weakening From China to Europe BL

 

GOLD MANIPULATION

CHART OF THE DAY- Russia Is On A Crazy Gold Binge  BI

If anyone has been buying gold on strength, then it's Russia. The nation just bought another 22.5 tonnes of gold reserves in May, after adding 27.6 tonnes in April. This continues a long streak of gold additions since 2005, as shown in the chart below.

If Russia kept up the April-May 2010 rate of gold additions in June, then Q2 buying will prove itself the largest quarterly accumulation of gold reserves for Russia in recent history. (Note the last data point shown is only a 2-month period comprised of April and May)

Given gold's performance, Russia has been looking smart, so far at least, despite today's golden air pocket. Across the same period, America has added virtually nothing, as shown in blue. Luckily America's stagnant gold reserves are still more than 10 times even Russia's latest 703 tonne stash.

chart of the day, gold, russia, usa

 

MARKET WARNINGS

2010 had worst start for stocks in nearly a decade USAT

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

INNOVATION

 

VIDEO TO WATCH

 

 

INTERESTING ARTICLES - GENERAL

How to Make an American Job Before It's Too Late- Andy Grove  BL

Recently an acquaintance at the next table in a Palo Alto, California, restaurant introduced me to his companions: three young venture capitalists from China. They explained, with visible excitement, that they were touring promising companies in Silicon Valley. I’ve lived in the Valley a long time, and usually when I see how the region has become such a draw for global investments, I feel a little proud.

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

If you feel comfortable being in the US dollar you would feel comfortable living in Chernobyl selling Real Estate.

Jim Sinclalair


ZHHstrong> - Zero Hedge, BI - Business Insider, WSJ - Wall Street Journal, BL - Bloomberg, FT - Financial Times

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

Friday

07-02-10

JUNE
S M T W T F S
    1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20
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27 28 29 30 1 2 3

ARCHIVAL

SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS

EU BANKING CRISIS
BOND BUBBLE

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
BANKING CRISIS II
RISK REVERSAL

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

CREDIT CONTRACTION II

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
US FISCAL IMBALANCES
PENSION CRISIS
CHINA BUBBLE
CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT
INTEREST PAYMENTS
US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
US RESERVE CURRENCY.
GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE
SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
RETAIL SALES
CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES
US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
OIL PRICE PRESSURES
FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
PANDEMIC
US$ RESERVE CURRENCY
TERRORIST EVENT
NATURAL DISASTER

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.