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The defining book for the current

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Gordon T Long

RESEARCH ANALYTICS for the GLOBAL MACRO

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ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

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SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

As horrific as the gulf environmental catastrophe is, an even more intractable and cataclysmic disaster may be looming. The yet unknowable costs associated with clean-up, litigation and compensation damages due to arguably the world’s worst environmental tragedy, may be in the process of triggering a credit event by British Petroleum (BP) that will be equally devastating to global over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives. The potential contagion may eventually show that Lehman Bros. and Bear Stearns were simply early warning signals of the devastation lurking and continuing to grow unchecked in the $615T OTC Derivatives market.

 

What is yet unknowable is what the reality is of BP’s off-balance sheet obligations and leverage positions. How many Special Purpose Entities (SPEs) is it operating? Remember, during the Enron debacle Andrew Fastow, the Enron CFO, asserted in testimony nearly 10 years ago that GE had 2500 such entities already in existence. BP has even more physical assets than Enron and GE. Furthermore, no one knows the true size of BP’s OTC derivative contracts such as Interest Rate Swaps and Currency Swaps. Only the major international banks have visibility to what the collateral obligations associated with these instruments are, their credit trigger events and who the counter parties are. They are obviously not talking, but as I will explain, they are aggressively repositioning trillions of dollars in global currency, swap, derivative, options, debt and equity portfolios.

 

READ MORE

 

 

EXTEND & PRETEND: A Matter of National Security

 

There is something seriously wrong in America. We all sense it, but few in the mainstream media are willing to touch it or can effectively articulate it within the public’s sound-bite oriented attention span.

 

It isn’t just about the remnants of the financial crisis; it isn’t the protracted jobs recession and slow recovery; it isn’t the trillions of dollars in deficit spending; it isn’t the degree of rampant financial malfeasants. It is something deeper which reaches into the soul of who we are as a people and society. It will soon be the central theme to your investment strategy and financial security.

 

On the surface it might appear we have lost our optimism about the future and our confidence that America is still the ‘beacon on the hill’ that countries around the world admire and look to for leadership. Though our children mouth the platitudes taught by older generations, they ring hollow in the hallways with video surveillance, motion detectors and metal detectors when recited by them. The high minded ideals seem misplaced in unemployment lines where they stand with freshly minted advanced degrees in hand, huge education debts and little hope other than the faint possibility of a non-paying internship position.

 

It isn’t that the American people have changed. Our government has changed.

 

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READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

1

         

SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS

EU BANKING CRISIS
BOND BUBBLE

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
BANKING CRISIS II
RISK REVERSAL

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

CREDIT CONTRACTION II

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
US FISCAL IMBALANCES
PENSION CRISIS
CHINA BUBBLE

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

Last Update: 07/02/2010 03:56 AM

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge

 

 

POSTS:   THURSDAY 07-01-10

 

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

IRAN

 

ISRAEL

 

KOREA 

 

SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

 

GREECE

 

ITALY

 

SPAIN / PORTUGAL

European Stocks Tumble  WSJ

European stocks dropped, with overnight losses in the U.S. and Asian markets adding pressure after Moody's warned it may strip Spain of its triple-A rating.

Moody's Place Spain's Aaa Sovereign Rating On Review For Downgrade  ZH

 

FRANCE

The CDS Wolfpack Is Now Coming After France... China  ZH

 

GERMANY

Germany's Export Boom Has Trade Partners Stewing Spiegel

Prospering at the Expense of Others?

Merkel Averts Disaster as Wulff Wins German Presidency Vote  BL

Chancellor Angela Merkel averted an unprecedented political setback as her candidate for the German presidency, Christian Wulff , won the largely ceremonial post only after three ballots.

 

UK

Bank of England rate-setter fears new UK recession AP

JAPAN

Japanese manufacturers turn optimistic  FT

 

CHINA

Manufacturing growth slows in Asia FT

Post-crisis expansion appears to be losing steam

China taking wind out of Asia’s surge-  FT

China Manufacturing Slows Again Amid Growth Concern  BL

China’s success in cooling its economy is alarming investors concerned that a slowdown in the engine of the global recovery may help trigger another recession.

Morgan Stanley- Chinese Confidence Is Now Rolling Over  BI

Morgan Stanley highlights how leading economic and sentiment indicators are rolling over in China. For example, Chinese confidence in their income prospects has pulled back:

Chart

Morgan Stanley's Business Cycle Signal has turned downward as well:

Chart

Still, they continue to view downward trends in the data as in-line with Chinese economic cooling efforts. Despite charts such as the above, Morgan Stanley still believes China is heading for a soft landing. Thus as we are likely to be hit with more falling Chinese data points, we probably need to remember that declining indicators aren't necessarily bad news. Collapsing ones, though, probably are.

Morgan Stanley:

Although several key headline indicators registered a decline in year-over-year growth rates from the high levels achieved in late last year and early this year, in part reflecting the base effect, underlying growth momentum is still holding up reasonably well as demonstrated by resilient sequential growth rates.

(Via Morgan Stanley, Headlines Belie Underlying Resilience, Qing Wan, June 2010)

 

DUBAI WORLD

 

USA

Warning signals of a double-dip recession  Telegraph

Watchdog says US needs to tackle debt fast  FT

Deficit Panel Stresses Cuts  WSJ

The CBO Issues Most Dire Warning On US Budget Yet, Warns US Debt Will "Swiftly Be Pushed To Unsustainable Levels"  ZH

 

Shell-Shocked Americans Still Aren't Buying Anything  BI

Chart

Why This Chart May Spell Doom For The U.S. Economy  BI

Deutsche Bank is particularly concerned about this chart, the US MPF FCI (United States Monetary Policy Forum Financial Conditions Index), because this chart typically is at these levels during a recession or right before one.

US MPF FCI

It has, in the past, predicted recessions. But it has also been wrong, notably in 1994, 1995, and 2003, according to Deutsche Bank. The longer the index is lower, however, the more likely it will have an impact on GDP.

And its impact on GDP tends to be magnified in times of great financial distress, according to DB.

FCI GDP

Certainly, something to be concerned about, or at least ponder.

Here are 19 signs the economy is worse than any other time in your life >

 

 

EU BANKING CRISIS

 

Europe's banks prepare for a day of reckoning  Independent (UK)

Breaking up banks would be 'catastrophic'   Independent (UK)

Markets unnerved by ECB loan fears  FT

 

With $1 Trillion In Loans, The ECB Is The Biggest Guarantor Of European Banks ZH

 

 

BOND BUBBLE

 

Crazy Treasury Bulls Get It Right Forsyth

Note yields back down at crisis level belie optimism on the economy.

 

Investors flock to havens in tough year for equities  FT

Top-tier government bonds and gold reap solid returns

 

Bond Guru Jeff Gundlach- The USA Will Default  Pragmatic Capitalist via  BI

 

chartBI

(see the full presentation here)

 

G20 MEETING - TORONTO

 


STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT/b>

 

With federal stimulus funds running out, economic worries grow LAT

 

US states face hard budget choices  FT

 

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 

 

HUNGARY

 

BANKING CRISIS II

 

The $5 Trillion Rollover Saft
Banks around the world must refinance more than $5 trillion of debts in  the coming three years, a massive rollover that poses threats to financial stability and growth.

In U.S. Bailout of A.I.G., Forgiveness for Big Banks NYT

 

Time to shut down the Fed? Pritchard 

 

Fed Officials Avoid Talk of Further Stimulus to Stoke Growth  BL

 

Fed Made Taxpayers Junk-Bond Buyers Without Congress Knowing  BL

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and then-New York Fed President Timothy Geithner told senators on April 3, 2008, that the tens of billions of dollars in “assets” the government agreed to purchase in the rescue of Bear Stearns Cos. were “investment-grade.” They didn’t share everything the Fed knew about the money.

 


DODD FRANK ACT

House Approves New Rules for Wall Street in 237-192 Vote  BL

House Sends Finance Overhaul to Senate  WSJ
The House agreed to a sweeping rewrite of the nation's financial regulations, moving the initiative one step closer to becoming law. The focus now shifts to the Senate.

Senators delay vote on Wall St reform  FT

Chris Dodd still optimistic of bill passing

Wall Street double act falls short

U.S. Regulatory Bill's Support May Weaken as Senate Delays Vote  BL

Dodd-Frank bill is no Glass-Steagall  FT

Opinion- The Dodd-Frank Financial Fiasco  WSJ
The bill all but guarantees bailouts as far as the eye can see, while failing to address real problems like Fan and Fred and our outdated bankruptcy code.

 

Derivatives Laws Could Cost $1 Trillion: ISDA Reuters

 

RATING AGENCIES

 

RISK REVERSAL

 

Bonds Beat Stocks by Most Since 2001 as Global Confidence Fades  BL

 

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 Is There a Bottom in Sight for Commercial Real Estate? RE Channel

 

RRESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Foreclosed Homes in U.S. Sell at 27% Discount as Distressed Supply Grows BL

“We’re clearly creating more properties that will be sold at distressed prices than the market is absorbing”

House OKs homebuyer tax credit extension CNN

Housing Aid Plan Set  WSJ

 

How long before a housing market crash? Independent (UK)

 

Guest Post- Housing Market & Construction Costs- Builders Can’t Justify Investment  ZH


EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM/b>

 

 

PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS

 

 

CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

 

 

GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

BBP - British Petroleum

 

BP in move to raise more funds FT

Banks tapped again after $20bn package

 

Here's the $272 million bill BP sent to Anadarko  BI

 

BP executives to face public grillings  FT

Gulf storm threat to spill containment FT



 

OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE/b>

Explaining Derivatives, And Goldman's Dominance Thereof, In Four Simple Charts   ZH

 

GOLD MANIPULATION

Was AIG, In Addition To Being The Riskiest Company In The World, Also A Precious Metals Manipulator   ZH

A little under two years ago, there was a big debate in the precious metals community, in which two groups of individuals were arguing for and against possible silver market manipulation, via arbing the COMEX and the OTC. On one hand you had such distinguished economists/bloggers as Mish (here and here) and Jon Nadler of Kitco (here) claiming there is no such thing as a COMEX-OTC arb because markets are ultimately efficient, and the second a trade is effected in one market, it implicitly affects all other markets, making spread arbing, and thus "manipulation" impossible. On the other hand, you had C.Loeb making precisely the opposite argument (here). After a brief flare up, the debate died down, with a partial win acceded to Nadler, who ended the debate with the following rhetorical statement: "Also, by the way, why not NAME the sinister manipulative banks in question? Why not ask them outright as to the motives behind their positions (or better yet, who their clients were) and whether or not they acted in a "willfully nefarious" manner? Conclusion: One can take any database and make it suit their conspiracy argument. That, however, does not make for proof of any kind." In other words, Mr. Nadler was asking for a bank to confirm it was arbing the COMEX-OTC spread, which in turn would unwind his defense argument, and lend credence to the claim that some players, due to their massive scale or otherwise, succeed in manipulating the silver (or gold) market by profitably spreading the legs of the trade in two completely different markets and arbing this spread. For the longest time people looked exclusively at JPMorgan for clues. Boy, were they wrong... and are they about to be surprised that in addition to almost blowing up the world, AIG FP has admitted that it itself, as the defacto risk mastodon and suicide bomber under Joe Cassano, with "$426 billion in total on and off balance sheet risk equivalent delta," was precisely just this spread manipulator. But don't take our word for it. Take AIG's.

Presenting exhibit A: AIG production document FRBNY-TOWNS-R1-210712 (pp 34-35) - highlight ours.

Oh, so the arb does exist...

There are about 249,999 other pages we need to go through to find additional supporting and incriminating evidence to this formerly Strictly Confidential Internal Risk Analysis, but a very relevant question at this point for Mr Nadler is: now that you have your confirmatory smoking gun, does that change your thesis? And a much more critical question for the gentlemen at the COMEX: just how was the world's arguably biggest trader at the time, AIG-FP, arbing your market and the OTC, and just how much of this falls under the confines of "legal"? And, lastly, maybe the most critical question - who inherited these positions, who unwound them, and, if no unwind occurred, who is currently in possession of AIG-FP's "large exposure in the Comex vs OTC arbitrage trades"?

Attachment Size
AIG Silver.pdf 3.8 MB

 

Market Now Just 15% Above 666 Lows, 22% Off 2010 Highs, When Priced In Gold ZH

It may come as a surprise to some that when the market's performance is expressed in the opposite of infinitely dilutable paper, we are currently just barely 15% higher than the generational S&P low of 666. As the chart below demonstrates, the S&P expressed in gold is plunging, and has dropped 22% from its 2010 highs, down 18% from the beginning of the year, and just 15% higher than March 5, 2009. As Russia and GLD have been demonstrating so aptly over the past 5 months, gold is not dilutable, and can not be contaminated with various Greek sovereign bond holdings. It is, in summary, pure, and is immune from that strain of 100% lethal, and printerborne, Central Banking syphilis where one's paper rots off. Which is why the Dow may easily pass 36,000. The issue is that at or about that time, the Dow to Gold ratio will be 1. Note also, the downward channel in the SPX/Gold index: each day this channel is not broken, is another day that Bernanke pops a few extra Ambien.

 

MARKET WARNINGS

Relentless Equity Fund Outflows- ICI Reports Another $1.2 Billion Redeemed, 8th Straight Week Of Outflows  ZH

Crunchtime for mutual funds has arrived. On one hand they are getting slammed with the S&P now almost -8% YTD causing a collapse in the funds' own equity values. On the other hand, investors have now withdrawn $30 billion in cash, forcing a feedback loop where selling begets selling, and even more redemptions. Ah, the beauty of a Keynesian system falling apart. And let's not forget that fund cash levels are at all near record lows to begin with. If the market slide can not be contained, and if consumers who already have zero faith in the market retrench even more, it could be the beginning of the end for the fund industry. More relevantly, ICI has just reported $1,248 million in outflows from domestic equity mutual funds: this is the eighth sequential week of outflows since the Flash Crash, and a period during which $32 billion has been redeemed.

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

INNOVATION

 

VIDEO TO WATCH

 

 

INTERESTING ARTICLES - GENERAL

CHART OF THE DAY- America's Debt Problem Will Be Fine If Politicians Just Do Absolutely Nothing  BI

 

The Congressional Budget Office shows us below how U.S. long-term debt will stabilize and actually be okay, if the government simply does absolutely nothing.

Matthew Yglesias argues:

See that line where the debt:GDP ratio is stable? That’s what happens under current law. If congress changes nothing, or the president vetoes everything, then this is what happens. No apocalypse. But nobody believes that’s going to happen. Nobody believes the Bush tax cuts will fully expire. Nobody expects the AMT phase-in to happen. Nobody expects physicians’ Medicare reimbursement rates to be held in check. And though I think he’s mistaken about this, Doug Elmendorf is skeptical that some cost-saving elements of the Affordable Care Act will ever be implemented. That’s the “alternative fiscal scenario” in which the debt level skyrockets.

But note that congress doesn’t need to do these things that it’s projected to do under the alternative fiscal scenario. Congress can stick to current law, and we’ll be fine.

chart of the day, Federal Debt Held By The Public, june 2010

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

If you feel comfortable being in the US dollar you would feel comfortable living in Chernobyl selling Real Estate.

Jim Sinclalair


ZHHstrong> - Zero Hedge, BI - Business Insider, WSJ - Wall Street Journal, BL - Bloomberg, FT - Financial Times

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

Thursday

07-01-10

JUNE
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27 28 29 30 1 2 3

ARCHIVAL

SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS

EU BANKING CRISIS
BOND BUBBLE

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
BANKING CRISIS II
RISK REVERSAL

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

CREDIT CONTRACTION II

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
US FISCAL IMBALANCES
PENSION CRISIS
CHINA BUBBLE
CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT
INTEREST PAYMENTS
US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
US RESERVE CURRENCY.
GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE
SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
RETAIL SALES
CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES
US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
OIL PRICE PRESSURES
FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
PANDEMIC
US$ RESERVE CURRENCY
TERRORIST EVENT
NATURAL DISASTER

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.