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The defining book for the current

Macro Economic Environment

Gordon T Long

RESEARCH ANALYTICS for the GLOBAL MACRO

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"EXTEND & PRETEND SERIES"

 

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

 


 A MUST READ FOR ANY UNDERSTANDING

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GLOBAL MACRO ECONOMIC

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"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY

 


 

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

EXTEND & PRETEND: The Flash Crash Omen

 

The highly discussed and quickly forgotten Flash Crash was an omen of what lies ahead for the financial markets. It was a uniquely distinctive occurrence relative to anything we have ever experienced. Likewise, what we are about to witness will be startling and never before observed by this generation of investors. After only thirty days the Flash Crash signal has become unambiguous and historians will wonder why the public didn’t react sooner to its clarion call.

Over the last ten years we have systematically accelerated the shifting of risk through the advancement of three new strategies; Dynamic Hedging, Capital Arbitrage and Regulatory Arbitrage.

Individually they may seem sound but when pyramided as we have done over this period of time, they set the stage for systemic instability. The underlying bedrock of this shaky pyramid is Dynamic Hedging. 

READ MORE

 

 

EXTEND & PRETEND: Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

We are entering the Age of Rage.

 

It is presently most visible in Europe as austerity programs that potentially could shred a half century of social entitlement advances are met with increasingly violent street demonstrations.  It is seen in the US Tea Party rallies with their fury that the very fabric which the US capitalist system is based on is being destroyed and discarded. Unfortunately these demonstrations of rage are focusing on the effects and not the cause. The cause is a systemic plaque of unenforced financial control fraud.

 

We have much more than a crisis of integrity. We have fraud that is so pervasive that it is now unknowingly institutionalized into our business and political culture.

 

The sickening part is that it a like a cancer; if it’s not detected early, it will be too late to fight. We need to fully understand and prosecute the tenets of fraud before it is too late.

 

READ MORE


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

1

         

SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS

EU BANKING CRISIS
BOND BUBBLE

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
BANKING CRISIS II
RISK REVERSAL

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

CREDIT CONTRACTION II

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
US FISCAL IMBALANCES
PENSION CRISIS
CHINA BUBBLE

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

Last Update: 06/05/2010 01:24 PM

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge

 

POSTS:   TUESDAY 06-01-10

 

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL

 

More Middle-East Escalation- Israeli Planes Under Fire Over Lebanon

 

Three Killed In Gaza Airstrike As Mossad Chief Says Israel "Risks Becoming A Burden On The US"

 

Flotilla Assault Off Gaza Spurs Crisis  WSJ

At least nine pro-Palestinian activists died when Israeli commandos boarded a ship headed to the blockaded Gaza Strip, plunging Israel into a diplomatic crisis.

U.N. Calls for Impartial Probe  WSJ

UN Security Council Condemns Violence During Israel Raid on Gaza Flotilla  BL

Israeli Stocks, Shekel Fall on Gaza Flotilla Deaths, Concern of Escalation BL

 

 

Greek Police Fire Teargas At Anti-Israel Protestors  ZH

"A Brutal Ambush At Sea" - The Spin Begins  ZH

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan Brands Israel Violence As "State Terrorism"  ZH

Global Community Condemns Israeli Actions As Crowds Of Protesting Turks Scream “Long Live Global Intifada”  ZH

Israel Deploys Three Nuclear Cruise Missile-Armed Subs Along Iranian Coastline  ZH

 

SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS - PIIGS

 

Nouriel Roubini Solutions for a crisis in its sovereign stage  FT

ECB warns of ‘hazardous contagion’  FT

Fears Rise in Europe Over Potential for Deflation  NY Times

 

GREECE

 

ITALY

 

SPAIN / PORTUGAL

Spanish  Bank Asks for $3 Billion from Rescue Fund Reuters
 

Spain is trapped in a 'perverse spiral' as wage cuts deepen the crisis Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Zapatero Loses Credit at Home and Abroad as Fitch  Dumps Spain's AAA Rating BL
Spain to toughen short selling rules FT

Spain Socialists face deep crisis as support dives   Reuters
Spain's Savings Banks Bow to the Inevitable: Mergers WSJ

 

Spain leads to the collapse of euro

 

FRANCE

 

GERMANY

Bundesbank Attacks ECB Bond-Buying Plan  WSJ

 

UK

The Office for Budget Responsibility must be prepared to defy the fiscal consensus King
 

 

JAPAN

Japan to disappoint on debt policy, stocks at risk Reuters
Greece's implications for Japan: the need to clarify the public debt Japan Times

 

CHINA

Wen: China won't adopt stimulus exit strategy China Daily

China's Wen: global economy double-dip possible Reuters

Markets focus on health of manufacturing  FT

China property risk is worse than in US  FT

Shanghai new home deals may fall 70%  Shanghai Daily

China Property Bubble Bursts in Bond Market as Kaisa Drops  BL

 

China Eats Into Commodities Reserves  WSJ

Beijing in a sweat as China's economy overheats  Telegraph

 

Shorting China - Sino cure Economist

 

DUBAI WORLD

 

THAILAND

 

USA

 

EU BANKING CRISIS

 

 

Arbing The Record Euribor-Libor Spread, Or Is There More To Liquidity "Moderation" Than Meets The Eye  ZH

 

ECB warns of more bank loan losses Reuters
ECB warns of ‘hazardous contagion’ FT

 

The Transatlantic Crisis: Europe's Endangered Banks  WSJ

 

Bond spreads widen on bank credit risk worries  FT

Cameron Gilt Bull Market Beats Bunds as U.K. Retains AAA Rating  BL

U.S. to Push Europe Stress Tests  WSJ

 

European Cross Country Bond Spreads  ZH

Bank Of International Settlements Warns To Ignore Banker "Doomsday Scenario" Fearmongering And Racketeering  ZH

Curiously one entity that has decided to take on this "fire and brimstone" head on and to warn the general population to ignore the bankers "doomsday scenarios" is the bankers' bank, the BIS. As the FT reports, according to a soon to be released report by the bank's Chief Economic Advisors Stephen Cecchetti, "Banks are exaggerating the economic effects of the regulations they are likely to face in the coming years." While his focus is on the implications of the passage of the Basel III treaty, and to preempt counter lobbying by the bank themselves, his argument can be extended to ever instance in which banks present scenarios of collapse should they not get their way: as Cecchetti points out: "the banks’ “doomsday scenarios” were based on their assuming “the maximum impact of the maximum change with the minimum behavioural change.” This is a huge point, as it means that even the failure of the TBTF banks could have been mitigated in the context of a controlled (and even uncontrolled) bankruptcy, and the only reason they were bailed out was to preserve the equity interests and the existing management team, period. This also means that the Fed and Treasury are nothing but vehicles for perpetuating Wall Street's status quo, as we have claimed from the very beginning.

ECB Conducts Third Sterilization Procedure, To Withdraw Another €35 Billion In Liquidity ZH

 

BANK PROFITS ARE FRAUDULENT   The Burning Platform

 

BOND BUBBLE

 

 

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

100,000 American teachers nationwide face layoffs    Washington Post
An unemployment insurance balancing act Stateline

 

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 

 

BANKING CRISIS II

3 Fla. banks, 1 each in Nev., Calif. shut down AP FDIC

FINANCIAL REGULATION BILL

 

3,000 Pages of Financial Reform, but Still Not Enough  NY Times

Michael Lewis Summarizes Financial Reform Infiltration  ZH

 

RATING AGENCIES

 

RISK REVERSAL

 

Bear Market Risks Increase to 40%, Scottish Widows Manager Says  BL

Owners Stop Paying Mortgages, and  Stop Fretting NYT
 

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

China's Latest Economic Guidelines Expose A Government Terrified To Hurt Property Speculators  BI

 

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II


Number of the Week: Misrated Mortgages   WSJ

 

GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 


FLASH CRASH

 

Paulson Drops 6.9% as Hedge Funds Post Biggest Monthly Losses Since Lehman  BL

U.S. Futures Tanking On Euro Flash Crash  BI

 

Those suspicious late-day reversals Hulbert
 

MISC MACRO ECONOMIC MATTERS

Slouching Toward Despotism- Are We There Yet-by Keith Hazelton- Anecdotal Economist

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY

JUNE
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ARCHIVAL

SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS

EU BANKING CRISIS
BOND BUBBLE

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
BANKING CRISIS II
RISK REVERSAL

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

CREDIT CONTRACTION II

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
US FISCAL IMBALANCES
PENSION CRISIS
CHINA BUBBLE
CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT
INTEREST PAYMENTS
US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
US RESERVE CURRENCY.
GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE
SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
RETAIL SALES
CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES
US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
OIL PRICE PRESSURES
FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
PANDEMIC
US$ RESERVE CURRENCY
TERRORIST EVENT
NATURAL DISASTER

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.