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The defining book for the current

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Gordon T Long

RESEARCH ANALYTICS for the GLOBAL MACRO

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Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

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Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

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EURO EXPERIMENT

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT - SLIDE PRESENTATION

Last Updated - 05-21-10

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SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS

EU BANKING CRISIS
BOND BUBBLE

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
BANKING CRISIS II
RISK REVERSAL

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

CREDIT CONTRACTION II

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
US FISCAL IMBALANCES
PENSION CRISIS
CHINA BUBBLE

RESEARCH PROCESS

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

 

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SYNTHESIS

RESEARCH COMMENTARY

       

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FALSE ECONOMICS

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05-21-10

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?

 

 

The European Crisis is proving to be more of an unraveling than a contagion.

 

I have long written that the European Monetary Union (EMU) constitution and Euro currency should be viewed in the context of a risky bet versus a sound regional monetary strategy. The odds of the EMU’s survival are presently reflected in a plunging Euro, despite a historic and unprecedented intervention. This indicates that the EMU’s existence in its current form is now a bad bet.

 

The good news is that this is becoming obvious and it suggests that the serious governance flaws of the 17 year Euro Experiment may finally be addressed. It took a crisis to see its first test which has been the generally accepted view of when the euro experiment would prove its viability. The established momentum of the EU since its inception and its broad acceptance prove that its survival is presently a matter of European preference with most Eurozone members feeling it an absolute necessity. We'd therefore expect to see the EU constitution reformed. What should concern investors the most however is how the mechanics of what will be a ‘forced reform’ will unfold. The highly visible process will have profound implications to the stability of global financial markets and to a very tenuous global economic recovery.

 

     
05-14-10

 

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: EU Bullied into $1T Banking Bonanza

Like a chess game, the bankers called ‘checkmate’ against the EU political leaders on Friday May 5th, 2010. Two days later in an urgently called weekend meeting the EU finance ministers hurriedly announced the biggest bailout in history.

Most people take more than two days to buy a car, but the frightened EU officials were pressured into reacting before the Asian markets opened Sunday evening. This is eerily the same scenario we saw on the eve of the US $700B TARP ratification, the Bear Stearns takeover, Fannie /Freddie Conservatorship, AIG Bailout etc. A coincidence – Yeh right!

How was this pressure applied, who has such power, who won and who lost? As I explained in EXTEND & PRETEND: Shifting Risk to the Innocent it is all part of the dynamic new market strategy of Regulatory Arbitrage. You had better learn how the game is played or you will be toast.

     
02-18-10

8 Financial Fault Lines Appear In the Euro Experiment!

 

Tremors were heard across Europe and around the world last week. There was little mistaking the clear fracturing sounds of the European Monetary Union.

 

Receiving less fanfare than the political hyperbole of EU solidarity, was surfacing evidence of serious fissures that exposed similar financial schemes which took the US to the financial abyss.

 

Our research has identified eight fault lines now visible in the Euro experiment. Each is serious. As a combination they have the potential to be devastating. They are all now fully in play.

 

 

 
02-16-10

"UR all PIGS from HELL"

 

Whether you’re in Central Europe, such as Ukraine or Romania, the Med countries such as Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain, or from Hungary to the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania, you all have one common problem ---The hell that is the Euro!

 

“Euro members drew down their benefits in advance – ‘ex ante’ -- when they joined EMU and enjoyed "very easy financing" for their current account deficits. They cannot expect ‘ex post’ help if they get into trouble later. These are the rules of the club” (1)

Jean-Claude Trichet, President, European Central Bank

The Euro is still an experiment. Like any experiment it needs to withstand the results of testing under stress conditions. The present stresses within the PIGS have pushed the Euro and the viability of the EMU onto the global stage with all the attention of “The Emperor has no Clothes”!

Whether the Euro is your domestic currency; or you peg your currency to the Euro; or you are significantly influenced economically by the Euro, you are now infected by the possibility of contagion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

SOVEREIGN DEBT PIIGS

EU BANKING CRISIS
BOND BUBBLE

STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
BANKING CRISIS II
RISK REVERSAL

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

CREDIT CONTRACTION II

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
US FISCAL IMBALANCES
PENSION CRISIS
CHINA BUBBLE
CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT
INTEREST PAYMENTS
US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
US RESERVE CURRENCY.
GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE
SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
RETAIL SALES
CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES
US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
OIL PRICE PRESSURES
FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
PANDEMIC
US$ RESERVE CURRENCY
TERRORIST EVENT
NATURAL DISASTER

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.